Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Leverage Leaders

Welcome back to daily fantasy basketball. You are forgiven for taking the day off for the big game in that other sport yesterday, if that was your approach. For those of you who played the Sunday NBA DFS slate, I sincerely hope that your results were better than mine. Tonight we have a solid looking slate of games, with eight on tap and several carrying heavy totals in Vegas. With that many games, we’ll be looking primarily at the main building blocks without sweating the low-owned pivots too much for this space again today. We’re always looking for players who are under-appreciated for the frequency with which they land in optimal lineups in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA simulations. As always, this article comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with our daily fantasy basketball picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via our NewsGod).

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Daily Fantasy Basketball: Optimal Plays + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the boom/bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimal-lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. Optimal-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and we will also be discussing bad chalk and shaky investments in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

DeMarcus Cousins – Houston Rockets

DraftKings – $7,100 – C | FanDuel – $6,000 – C

Yes, again — don’t look at me like that. We’re not actually going to spend too much time on the Cousins play today because of how frequently he has appeared in this space. By now we should all know that when he is underpriced in a role change, he is a massive advantage for daily fantasy basketball purposes. Tonight is an extreme version of the cases we have seen recently. Not only will Cousins see around 30 minutes in the absence of Christian Wood, the Rockets will also be playing without John Wall and Eric Gordon, which will put even more of the onus for production on Cousins.

Cousins is far too inexpensive on FanDuel, where he is pulling in a 40.2% optimal-lineup rate and a 67.0% boom-score probability; those marks thrust him well beyond the -15 leverage score in my slate of options. In DraftKings NBA contests, Cousins costs significantly more, but is still very much in play. He appears in the optimal lineup in 25.4% of simulations and has a 39.9% boom-score probability, though he will be owned extensively despite the price bump. With a -14.9 leverage score, Cousins is equally popular compared to his probability of being a key play. He has a major edge on other players at the position on both sites, I think it is fine to push above the public exposure rates on this slate.

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Zach LaVine – Chicago Bulls

DraftKings – $8,900 – SG / FanDuel – $8,800 – SG

LaVine lands in the awkward-to-describe tier of player between simply high end and star caliber. While he is not quite one of the best in the league, he is a more-than-capable scorer who puts up very strong daily fantasy basketball nights. Over the Bulls last five games, LaVine has averaged 27.2 real-life points, 5.6 rebounds and 5.2 assists, and the team will be without forwards Lauri Markkanen and Otto Porter again tonight, taking offensive pieces off the board. While a couple of frontcourt pieces from the Bulls are also in play, LaVine is the one who truly stands out.

The shooting guard carries a 19.1% optimal-lineup rate on DraftKings, fourth among eligible guards. He pairs that with a 31.9% boom-score probability, which ranks second among all guards. The public is getting to LaVine at about expectation and in proportion with the optimal-lineup rates, but with under 20% overall exposure, it should pay to get well beyond the field on a player who is only at -0.4 leverage.

On FanDuel LaVine’s stock shoots up. He comes into the slate only $100 less expensive across sites, but with the requirement to roster two shooting guards on the blue site, he vaults to a 32.8% optimal-lineup rate and a 39.6% boom-score probability. Both numbers lead the slate at the shooting guard position. The public is on LaVine on this site as well, but he is slightly on the positive side and screaming to be a major part of our portfolio tonight with just a 0.7 leverage score. I would be comfortable essentially doubling the field’s projected ownership.

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Rui Hachimura – Washington Wizards

DraftKings – $5,400 – PF/C / FanDuel – $5,200 – SF

Hachimura is back to fantasy relevance for tonight’s slate. The Wizards will be resting Russell Westbrook, which should focus more of the team’s usage onto Bradley Beal and Hachimura. Hachimura is putting up 0.82 fantasy points per minute so far this season, which is directly in line with his rate from last year. He is projected for a 32-minute night, and the price is low for what we expect from him in this opportunity.

Hachimura averages 28.1 minutes a night, putting up 12.7 real-life points, 4.9 rebounds and 2.2 assists in his 13 games since rejoining the lineup. Without Westbrook on the floor, Hachimura sees a bump in usage and climbs slightly to 0.85 fantasy points per minute. He should be capable of producing more than that with increased rebounding and assist rates in the situation.

In FanDuel NBA contests, Hachimura costs just $5,200 and slots in at small forward. He is undervalued by the public, coming in with a healthy 3.8 leverage score that is crying out for attention. Hachimura appears in 18.4% of optimal lineups in Awesemo’s simulations, leading the slate at the position. His 41.5% boom-score probability ranks third overall on the slate. When the public is well underweight on a player that looks this good, it only makes sense to load up as much as possible. There are numerous mid-range options to pair with obvious stars at the position tonight, but only Hachimura offers the leverage upside along with the potential for production.

For DraftKings NBA players, Hachimura looks even better. He is $200 more expensive, but he fits into both the power forward and center spots on the site, adding critical flexibility on an excellent play. The public is not sharp on him on this site either. His 4.7 leverage score stands out as the second best on the entire slate, and he appears in 19.6% of optimal lineups, sixth overall and second among eligible centers. With a 27.6% boom-score probability, there is both upside and safety in going to the Hachimura play for value and potential.

Frank Kaminsky – Phoenix Suns

DraftKings – $4,300 – PF/C / FanDuel – $4,700 – PF

Kaminsky is on the board as a value play once again today. The Suns have several injury question marks — including Chris Paul, which could yield a major uptick in usage for Devin Booker in the event that Paul sits — that are creating opportunity for Kaminsky to deliver on his low prices. The play tonight is not as strong on upside as we saw on a recent slate, but there is a good argument to be made for Kaminsky as a way to differentiate; he has the highest leverage score on both sites.

On FanDuel Kaminsky costs more than on the competing site, and the metrics in our boom/bust tool reflect the slight increase. Slotting in as a power forward, Kaminsky is coming up in 11.9% of optimal lineups. While not nearly leading the slate, that mark puts Kaminsky in a tier of mid-range options on which his public exposure makes him stand out. He has a 20.1% boom-score probability on the reasonable salary, and his 6.4 leverage score on single-digit public ownership puts him in play.

In DraftKings NBA contests, Kaminsky picks up center eligibility and costs less, expanding his numbers somewhat. At just $4,300, he lands in 13.5% of optimal lineups on the site and has a 19.9% boom-score probability — which is actually lower than on the blue site — that ranks fifth among eligible power forwards and centers. Kaminsky is undervalued with single-digit ownership and a 6.2 leverage score; it makes good sense to get well beyond the public’s exposure tonight.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.