High-Upside NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Terry Rozier

This is the biggest NBA slate of the year, with all 30 teams playing and each game being played every 15 minutes. With no games tomorrow due to the NBA’s initiative to vote, tonight is going to be a wild slate with a lot of news. Make sure to monitor Stokastic’s starting lineups page to see who is in and out of the lineup. This article features three boom candidates at each pricing tier and one bust/fade option. These plays below are driven by Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool. Let’s take a look at some of the best NBA DFS picks for the big slate, prioritizing Giannis Antetokounmpo.

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NBA DFS Boom: Giannis Antetokounmpo: $12,600 DraftKings/$11,600 FanDuel

32.9% DraftKings Boom/46.0% FanDuel Boom

Even though this is a 15-game slate, Giannis Antetokounmpo is still rating out as the best stud option. Giannis continues to rank second in the league in points, rebounds and usage rate. He missed last game due to injury management but will be good to go tonight against the Hawks. Despite being on the road, the Bucks are 3-point favorites and have a chance to start the season with a record of 10-0. This is a pace-up spot for Giannis, as the Hawks rank eighth in pace this season since they acquired another point guard in Dejounte Murray to pair with Trae Young.

Giannis is the most expensive player on DraftKings and the second most on FanDuel, but he has the highest projection on both sites. With so many games being played, there will be plenty of opportunity to find value to fit in Antetokounmpo. On DraftKings, it looks like the field is going a balanced lineup build tonight, as Giannis is only 6.6% in Stokastic’s last ownership run. He is much easier to fit on FanDuel, which is why he is drawing 27.1% ownership. Prioritize Giannis on FanDuel, where he has the third-highest boom percentage, but he is still a great play on DraftKings as well given the ceiling he provides.

NBA DFS Boom: Terry Rozier: $7,700 DraftKings/$7,900 FanDuel

43.2% DraftKings Boom/40.0% FanDuel Boom

After missing six games due to injury, Terry Rozier returned last game and played 36 minutes. Supposedly his minutes were being “monitored.” The Hornets lost their fourth straight game, but Rozier had a team-high 25 points and a 33.8% usage rate. He attempted 24 field goal attempts while his backup Dennis Smith Jr. left the game due to an ankle injury. Smith’s status needs monitoring, but even with him currently in, Rozier has the second-highest boom percentage on DraftKings and the fifth highest on FanDuel.

The Hornets will host the Wizards as 2-point favorites in hopes of getting back on the right track. This matchup has one of the lowest totals on the slate at 215.5 points. Stokastic projections have Rozier playing 35.4 minutes tonight, and he ranks in the top five for value on both sites. In the three games that Rozier has played, he is averaging 46.3 DraftKings points per game. With LaMelo Ball still out with an injury, expect Rozier to get all of the usage and minutes that he can handle moving forward.

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NBA DFS Boom: Isaiah Hartenstein: $5,200 DraftKings/$5,200 FanDuel

52.5% DraftKings Boom/60.1% FanDuel Boom

The salary came up on both sites but not nearly enough for Knicks center Isaiah Hartenstein. With Mitchell Robinson out for a few weeks, Hartenstein will be the Knicks starting center moving forward. Even with a more expensive price tag, Hartenstein has the highest boom percentage on both DraftKings and FanDuel for this large slate. In his first game as a starter, he played 38 minutes and had a double-double of 10 points and 14 rebounds. Playing with the starters, Hartenstein had a ridiculously low 6.8% usage rate but was still able to provide a ton of value.

Being a center on such a large slate, a recommended player needs to be either an elite option or an incredible value. Hartenstein fills the incredible value checkbox, as he has the highest value in Stokastic’s projections on both sites. Playing against the Timberwolves is a juicy matchup, as they rank fourth in pace this season. This total is the second highest on the slate at 234.5 points, and the Knicks are implied for 115 points. With Rudy Gobert out due to COVID protocols, Hartenstein should be able to dominate the Timberwolves on the glass and in the paint.

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NBA DFS Bust: Donovan Mitchell: $9,200 DraftKings/$9,700 FanDuel

47.0% DraftKings Bust/61.8% FanDuel Bust

It is not surprising that Darius Garland coming back from injury has really limited the upside for Donovan Mitchell. In the last two games, Mitchell is still scoring extremely well, but his peripherals are lacking considerably. He had only two assists last game, where in his last game without Garland, Mitchell tallied 12. Mitchell’s salary has come down a little bit but not quite enough, as he has one of the highest bust percentages of players priced in the upper tier. Even though he is averaging a career-high 31.4 points per game, he needs peripherals to be priced in this range.

Mitchell is one of two players with an A grade and a C value on both DraftKings and FanDuel in Stokastic’s NBA DFS Rankings. The other is Stephen Curry, but even with a fully healthy Warriors team, it is hard to deny that Curry has a much higher upside since he leads the league in made 3’s with 5.1 per game. This Cavaliers – Clippers matchup has the lowest total on the slate at 213.5 points. Both teams rank in the top four for defensive rating, and the Cavaliers are in the bottom four in pace. This game is almost a full fade due to all of the other great options on this slate.

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