Thursday features another very small three-game slate with only one true pay-up option on the slate. There are a few injuries to monitor so make sure to follow Stokastic’s starting lineups page for the latest news on who is in and out of the lineup tonight. This article features two boom candidates and one bust/fade option, driven by Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool. Let’s look at some of the best NBA DFS picks for the slate, pairing Nikola Jokic with Tre Jones.
Boom/Bust NBA DFS Picks & Projections Today
NBA DFS Boom: Nikola Jokic: $11,300 DraftKings/$11,500 FanDuel
34.3% DraftKings Boom/20.4% FanDuel Boom
With another small three-game slate on the docket tonight, the decision will be to play or fade Nikola Jokic who is the only player priced over $10,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He is the only true pay-up option, so this decision is priority No. 1 on this slate. His most recent game was a dud, but Jokic has by far the highest ceiling and floor on this slate in a great matchup against the Trail Blazers. Jokic ranks just outside the top five in boom percentage for both sites but leads Stokastic’s projections by nearly 15 fantasy points on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Jokic has shot 50% or better against the Trail Blazers frontcourt in seven straight games. This season, the Trail Blazers rank 20th in points allowed in the paint with 50.3 per game. The Nuggets are one-point road underdogs as they have lost three straight games to bring their record down to 14-10. Jokic also ranks just outside the top five in Stokastic’s ownership projections but is still going to be the main decision point on this slate. Personally, this is an easy decision to play Jokic and differentiate elsewhere, but how risky do you want to be on this small three-game slate?
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NBA DFS Boom: Tre Jones: $6,400 DraftKings/$6,400 FanDuel
44.0% DraftKings Boom/36.6% FanDuel Boom
The Spurs are the best value on the slate, and it starts with Tre Jones. He is a little expensive from a true value perspective, but this game environment with the Rockets is fantastic. Jakob Poeltl and Keita Bates-Diop are both out as Devin Vassell is listed as doubtful. Despite losing 11 straight games and 15 of their last 16, the Spurs are only 1.5-point home underdogs against the second-worst team in the Western Conference. Jones ranks second on both DraftKings and FanDuel with the highest boom percentage as he looks like one of the best values on the slate.
The Spurs should be able to somehow keep this game competitive as the Rockets rank 28th in defensive rating this season. The Rockets are allowing 26.7 assists per game, which ranks as the fifth highest in the league. Jones is averaging a career and team-high 6.9 assists while he has received extra opportunity with the departure of point guard Dejounte Murray to Atlanta. Being projected to play 33.2 minutes tonight, Jones ranks third in value on DraftKings and second on FanDuel in Stokastic’s projections. He is one of many Spurs players that look fantastic on this three-game slate.
NBA DFS Bust: Jimmy Butler: $8,600 DraftKings/$9,900 FanDuel
67.0% DraftKings Bust/85.7% FanDuel Bust
Targeting the Heat and Clippers game for a fade is a relatively easy decision as this game has by far the lowest total on the slate at 213.5 points. The Clippers rank top five in defensive rating, while the Heat rank bottom five in pace. With that being said, the fade target is Heat forward Jimmy Butler. Kyle Lowry did just get ruled out, which will ultimately help Butler’s outlook, but even Butler is still questionable due to conditioning. Not sure how that is possible after he played 35 and 33 minutes since returning from injury. Make sure to monitor his status closer to lock.
Butler is averaging 21 or more points in three straight seasons with the Heat, while shooting 49.5% from the field this season. He is averaging a career-high 7.1 rebounds and 6.0 assists per game as he continues to stuff the stat sheet. However, even though Lowry is out, Butler is $9,900 on FanDuel for some reason, which is the second-highest salary on the slate. An 85.7% bust percentage on FanDuel is one of the largest for a pay-up option. At this moment, Butler has a B grade and an E value in Stokastic’s NBA DFS Rankings on FanDuel. He looks decent on DraftKings, but this is a brutal match and game environment.
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