NBA DFS Leverage Picks: Keldon Johnson a Start to Balanced Lineups

On tap for Thursday is a three-game slate, and with the help of Stokastic’s NBA DFS ownership projections, this article will find the best high- and low-owned players that offer leverage for GPPs. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS leverage picks for Thursday, Dec. 8.

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NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays

High-End Tier

For tonight’s three-game slate, the most popular route for roster construction is going to be building around Nikola Jokic. He projects to be over 30% owned on both DraftKings and FanDuel. While Jokic holds the highest projection on the slate by a wide margin, fading him and opting for a more balanced lineup will naturally differentiate lineups from the field and is a worthwhile risk. Plus, there is certainly logic that Jokic will underachieve relative to his slate-high salary tonight. He isn’t in great form, scoring less than 60 DraftKings points in five of his last six starts, and he is on the road in Portland tonight. This season, Jokic has provided 2.2 DraftKings points per game less on the road than when at home and has only topped 60 DraftKings points in 3 of 13 starts away from Denver.

As for cheaper high-end options to consider for balanced lineups, Keldon Johnson and Tyler Herro are easy choices. The latter has been stellar as of late, generating 46.5 DraftKings points per game across his last five starts and will benefit with Kyle Lowry (rest) out of the lineup. With Lowry off the floor this season, Herro’s usage has increased 4.2 percentage points to a team-high 29.8%. As for Johnson, he is competing in the highest total on the slate against the Rockets (229.5 points), who rank 28th in defensive efficiency and benefits from his club being understaffed. On top of Jakob Poeltl (knee) and Jeremy Sochan (quad) being ruled out, Devin Vassell (knee) is doubtful and expected to join them on the sidelines. With these three starters off the court this season, Johnson’s usage rate has increased 6.7 percentage points to a team-best 35.3%, lifting him to 1.24 DraftKings points per minute.

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Damian Lillard also is a strong consideration for GPPs, slated for less than 20% ownership according to Stokastic’s projections, which is very appealing for a three-game slate. Lillard just returned from a seven-game absence Sunday and had 39.5 DraftKings points against the Pacers. While this wasn’t the greatest fantasy score relative to his high salary, Lillard logged an encouraging 32 minutes in his return and should see even more work tonight, with three days of rest in his favor. With a team-high 31.9% usage rate this season, Lillard is contributing 1.23 DraftKings points per minute and has scored over 50 DraftKings points in a third of his starts. Going against a Nuggets defense that ranks 27th in efficiency, Lillard has 50 fantasy point upside and could be a real gamechanger in GPPs.

Value Tier

With the Spurs down three starters, they are creating the best value plays this short slate has to offer. Despite projecting to be some of the most rostered players on the slate according to Stokastic’s projections, Tre Jones and Charles Bassey are both unavoidable tonight. With Vassell, Poeltl and Sochan off the court this season, Jones’ usage has leaped 8.6 percentage points to 27.9% and he has led San Antonio with 1.5 DraftKings points per minute, which is a massive upgrade one DraftKings points per minute Jones is averaging for the season.

Bassey is also very underpriced for the role he will handle tonight. With Poeltl sidelined, Zach Collins and Bassey have been splitting the center minutes for the Spurs, helping the latter collect 22.5 DraftKings points in 20.5 minutes per game in the last two. Bassey is averaging 1.2 DraftKings points per minute this season and should effortlessly exceed five-times value with Stokastic projecting Bassey for 22.2 minutes of action in this prime matchup against the Rockets. Bassey is averaging 22 DraftKings points when he eclipses 20 minutes this season. Lastly, Doug McDermott is an attractive punt from the Spurs tonight, with Stokastic forecasting him to be less than 20% on both DraftKings and FanDuel. McDermott (ankle) is probable after missing the last two games and before this absence, he had topped 20 DraftKings points in two of his previous contests. With a 21.4% usage rate, McDermott provides one DraftKings points per minute with Vassell, Poeltl and Sochan off the floor this season and another effort of over 20 DraftKings points is possible for McDermott in this great spot against Houston.

With Kawhi Leonard (rest) and Terance Mann (concussion) out tonight for the Clippers, John Wall is rating as a top-three leverage target on the slate in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool, given his strong ceiling and low ownership projection. In the 221 minutes Wall has played without Leonard and Mann, he has scored 1.3 DraftKings points per minute, thanks to a 29% usage rate and 43.8% assist percentage, both of which are small upgrades from his season averages. Priced near the minimum on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Moses Brown is also worth taking a flier on in GPPs tonight. He has operated as Ivica Zubac’s primary backup in the past two games, resulting in 20.6 DraftKings points in 12.5 minutes per game for Brown. While he is a fragile option given his small role, Brown could destroy his low price tags if he continues to double-digit minutes. For the season, Brown is leading the Clippers with an elite 1.4 DraftKings points per minute and Stokastic is projecting him to go essentially unowned on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Situations to Monitor

Keep a close eye on Kevin Porter Jr. (questionable, knee) tonight. As noted above, this matchup against the Spurs presents the highest total on the slate (229.5 points) and Jalen Green would become an excellent spend if Porter were to sit this one out. With Porter off the floor this season, Green’s usage rises 9.3 percentage points to a team-high 38% and he scores 1.1 DraftKings points per minute. Eric Gordon would also be a terrific punt play to attack in this slate-high total. With Porter off the court this season, Gordon’s usage skyrockets 11.0 percentage points to 28.1%, upgrading his fantasy production from 0.7 to one DraftKings points per minute.

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