The NBA DFS Deep Dive is our primary in-depth daily fantasy basketball article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make the best NBA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel for any format.
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NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | 1/2/21
New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers (-9): 215
New York Knicks
Alec Burks is one of the most significant names on the injury report. This isn’t to say that Burks is a great player, but on a small slate his absence would open up value. The Knicks run a tight rotation, if Burks does not play we can expect extra minutes to go to R.J. Barrett and Elfrid Payton. Both players are overpriced on DraftKings, but make for better plays on FanDuel in that situation.
Barrett on FanDuel is a play that warrants discussion. The reason for not playing him is obvious: he can’t shoot. The Knicks’ floor spacing is terrible and Barrett hasn’t shown the ability to finish at the rim at a decent rate, a struggle that dates back to his time in college. The positive is that none of these shortcomings prevent him from shooting. He has a 23.8% usage rating this season and averages nearly 30 FanDuel points per game. His efficiency can only go up, Barrett has missed 21 consecutive three pointers. The small forward position is thin on FanDuel so my initial builds came out overweight on Barrett.
In the frontcourt, Julius Randle also looks like a player I will end up overweight on for FanDuel NBA contests. On DraftKings, I have less interest at his $9,100 price tag. The Knicks don’t have much firepower in their offense and lean heavily on Randle. In addition to his 25.6% usage rating, he is averaging 7.0 assists as the offense often runs through him. DraftKings NBA contests have adjusted for this massive role, while FanDuel has left Randle priced at $8,000.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: None
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Elfrid Payton ($5,000), R.J. Barrett ($5,900), Julius Randle ($8,000), Mitchell Robinson ($5,200)
Indiana Pacers
The Pacers received some bad news yesterday. T.J. Warren is out for an extended period of time due to a broken foot. Dating back to last season, Warren has struggled with foot injuries. He missed time in the bubble due to plantar fasciitis which also caused him to miss the preseason. Unable to get his body right, Warren is dealing with another injury and it will have a significant impact on the Pacers.
In place of Warren, Aaron Holiday entered the starting lineup last game. Over the last year, Holiday has produced better on a per minute rate when coming off the bench. Even so, it’s hard to not like him as a value play on both sites. He’s under $4,000 on FanDuel and DraftKings and not many value plays inspire much confidence tonight. Unless something changes, Aaron Holiday is my favorite punt play. He received 22 minutes last game against the Cavs in a start, but the game was a blowout. In 33 starts last season, he averaged over 30 minutes per game, we could see him reach that total tonight if things remain competitive.
With Warren out, we can also count on Aaron’s brother, Justin, to play increased minutes. In terms of projection, I think his price is about fair on DraftKings and FanDuel. I am still getting to Justin Holiday in about 15% of my FanDuel lineups because of positional scarcity. Holiday is cheap and in line for extra minutes at a position that is difficult to fill on FanDuel. Sometimes that is all it takes for a player to wind up in a handful of my lineups.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Aaron Holiday ($3,800)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Aaron Holiday ($3,700), Justin Holiday ($3,900), Domantas Sabonis ($9,400)
Oklahoma City Thunder at Orlando Magic (-6): 218
Oklahoma City Thunder
I remain on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander despite a somewhat underwhelming start to the season. For my money, the Thunder have the weakest roster in the Western Conference, so it’s hard for me to not project SGA to have a massive usage rating this season. He’s opened the season with a 27.9% usage rating and there is still room for additional upside in that number. The Thunder no longer have Danillo Gallinari, Chris Paul or Dennis Schroder and SGA had a usage rating of 33.2% with those players off the court last season.
I like Al Horford more than just about anybody else. Overall, he was miserable last season on the 76ers. I blame this more on chemistry than Horford himself. The fit with Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid was terrible and Horford played well with those stars off the court. Without them on the floor, Horford averaged 16 points, 9.1 rebounds and 6.7 assists per 36 minutes. The question I have here is playing time. Horford is yet to play more than 30 minutes in a game. I will end up overweight to the field on Horford and I will go very heavy on him in the future if the playing time starts to become more significant.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,200), Al Horford ($5,400)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($7,900), Al Horford ($6,100)
Orlando Magic
We have a couple of injury notes here. After missing last game with a hamstring injury, Terrence Ross says he play tonight. This could take away the increased minutes in the Orlando backcourt, but Evan Fournier is questionable to play because of back spasms, leaving things up in the air. If Fournier does play, the injury is enough to make me avoid him. He was only able to play seven minutes against Philly in his last game before leaving because of the injury. If he’s out, some value opens up.
Last season, Markelle Fultz benefitted more than any other player on the Magic with Fournier off the court. His usage rating jumped by 4% without Fournier, leading to increased fantasy production. Fultz scored an additional 3.6 DraftKings points per 36 minutes with Fournier off the court.
The other play who benefits without Fournier is Terrence Ross. Not only did Ross see a 3.1% usage bump with Fournier off the court last season, we can expect a few extra minutes for him without Fournier. If Fournier plays, I likely won’t have exposure to him or Ross. Fultz is still a viable play with or without Fournier, and my initial build had Fultz at 20% exposure. The only other player I got exposure to from Orlando in my initial builds (which assume Fournier is in) is Nikola Vucevic. For now, I won’t list Ross as a top play, but he’s an option for me if Fournier is ruled out. Michael Carter-Williams is a viable punt if Fournier is out although I likely won’t roster him if Fournier plays.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Markelle Fultz ($6,200), Nikola Vucevic ($8,700)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Markelle Fultz ($5,800), Nikola Vucevic ($8,400)
Charlotte Hornets at Philadelphia 76ers (-10): 216
Charlotte Hornets
This is the last chance to bet LaMelo Ball for Rookie of The Year. James Wiseman is currently the betting favorite, but I think the odds are about to change. Ball played increased minutes in each of the last two games, and made the most of his playing time. He scored over 35 fantasy points in those contests, and it’s only a matter of time before he’s starting or at least playing big minutes on a night-to-night basis. The only issue here is a lack of confidence in his minutes for tonight. Long term, the playing time is an inevitability. However, the increased minutes in the last two games came largely due to blowouts. This makes him somebody to only roster in tournaments. My initial builds don’t have exposure to any other player on the Hornets.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: LaMelo Ball ($5,500)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: LaMelo Ball ($5,300)
Philadelphia 76ers
My DMs on twitter have largely turned into questions about which games will end in a blowout. The safe answer these days is all of them. Some of the lopsided scores are a fluke, but there is also reason to think more games end in a blowout this season. With the condensed schedule leading to more back-to-backs and less rest for teams, coaches will throw the towel in early. This is what we are seeing in the first week of the season. Coaches are not playing for the slight chance of a win in the second half when facing a significant deficit. Instead, they are taking core players off the floor and living to fight against tomorrow.
The importance of what I wrote above is that this game is the most likely to end in a blowout tonight. With a double-digit spread favoring the hot Philadelphia 76ers, this game could get out of hand early. For this reason, I am not going out of my way to roster on 76ers’ players. I don’t think any of them project particularly well for their price tags. There is always upside in Joel Embiid but, if I am paying up for a center, I think both Vucevic and Andre Drummond are stronger options. I try to make a point of emphasizing the plays I actually like and I am not in on Philly in a potential blowout situation.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: None
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: None
Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks (-6): 229.5
Cleveland Cavaliers
I mentioned not liking Embiid much in the context of this slate, one of the main reasons is because of Andre Drummond. With Tristan Thompson no longer on the team and Kevin Love injured, Cleveland is leaning on Drummond right now. Frankly, he isn’t playing well from an actual basketball standpoint. In fantasy, this doesn’t always matter. Drummond isn’t priced up enough when considering his playing time and rebound rate without Love on the court. In a game last week, we saw him miss shot after shot and still break a slate on FanDuel because he walked into a bunch of defensive stats. The opportunity for Drummond to play big minutes will mean counting stats for him.
On both sites, Larry Nance is a good midrange play as the starter in place of Love. On FanDuel, he is easily my favorite play at small forward because there is nobody else to really roster. Bless FanDuel’s hearts for not knowing what position anybody plays. Unrelated, but may Tyler Herro stick as a small forward on their site forever.
To open the season, both Darius Garland and Collin Sexton are putting up big games. I love the “Sexland” backcourt for the nickname if nothing else. Of the two, I am more of a Sexton fan. He played well last season and his production is carrying over. I am more skeptical of Garland’s start to the year and I expect regression. Garland is shooting over 50% from three, which is in no way sustainable. He also has seen a much bigger uptick in salary than Sexton, so I will not get Garland into my lineups tonight because I think the price is too high.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Collin Sexton ($7,100), Larry Nance ($6,900), Andre Drummond ($9,200)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Collin Sexton($6,800), Larry Nance ($6,800), Andre Drummond ($10,000)
Atlanta Hawks
Trae Young is in play on just about every slate. The Cavaliers shockingly rank near the top of the league in defensive efficiency but there is no way this continues. They finished last season last in the league in defensive efficiency and are returning essentially the same roster. My initial builds have me about even to the field on Young exposure, so he is in my player pool but I am pretty neutral on him relative to everybody else. If more value opens up, my exposure to Young will go up naturally. He should take advantage of Sexton and Garland who both rated as poor defenders by Defensive Real Plus-Minus last season.
As a DraftKings specific play, I like Clint Capela. We are yet to see him unleashed in a Hawks’ uniform but his playing time is trending up. Capela played 30 minutes last game for the first time this season. Atlanta is handling him extremely carefully due to his injury issues in the past, although the playing time is becoming less of an issue. As his time on the floor increases, his salary has gone down on DraftKings. Capela actually ended up as my most rostered player in my initial DraftKings build. I love his price point coming off of increased playing time and a double-double.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Trae Young ($10,200), Clint Capela ($5,200)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Trae Young ($9,700), John Collins ($7,000)
Toronto Raptors at New Orleans Pelicans (+1): 215.5
Toronto Raptors
Pascal Siakam frustrated many drunk DFS players on New Year’s Eve. Shortly before the Raptors’ game against the Knicks, their starting lineup came out and Siakam wasn’t in it. Shortly after, we found out he would not play against New York at all for disciplinary reasons. In all honesty, this is the only reason I made money on that night’s slate. The players I liked were mostly terrible but reacting to the Siakam news got a highly rostered player who scored zero fantasy points out of my player pool. It also got me on Norman Powell who started in his place. This is the only benefit for me being a nerd who doesn’t drink on New Years and stays home to watch basketball by myself.
Siakam is a good FanDuel play as he should return to his normal role. I am off of Powell now that he likely returns to his normal bench role. I didn’t get much exposure to anybody else on the Raptors. While Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet are in some lineups for me, it’s under 5% and I don’t think there’s a need to roster them if making limited lineups. This Pelicans’ team is a much tougher matchup than it was last year. New Orleans is playing at the third-slowest pace in the league and ranks third in defensive efficiency.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: None
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Pascal Siakam ($7,800)
New Orleans Pelicans
Zion Williamson was a massive disappointment last time out. He got into early foul trouble and ended up playing just 17 minutes. In the game prior, he only played 29 minutes. While this should seem like a concern, when it comes to Zion, I am not worried. He was limited most of last season but this situation is different. Last game he had foul issues and the game before was a blowout. Williamson played 38 minutes in each of the two prior games. As long as he avoids foul trouble, he is going to play big minutes again what is expected to be a tight game. The spread here is only one point.
I don’t find myself rostering Brandon Ingram much this season. I used to underrate him and, even though I have come around, I don’t totally buy into him as one of the more expensive DFS plays. Now that Zion is playing bigger minutes, I anticipate that he will take away usage from Ingram. The two young stars are close in price and it’s hard for me to roster Ingram over Williamson on DraftKings when the salary is close and Ingram is projecting for three times the ownership.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Zion Williamson ($7,800)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Zion Williamson ($8,100), Eric Bledsoe ($4,600)
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