The NBA DFS Deep Dive is our primary in-depth daily fantasy basketball article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make the best NBA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel for any format.
[DAYTONA]
NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | 2/13/21
Indiana Pacers at Atlanta Hawks (+1): 224.5
Indiana Pacers
This isn’t too tough of a spot to break down. The Pacers find themselves in a favorable matchup against the Hawks and we know where basically all of their production is coming from. Malcolm Brogdon and Domantas Sabonis are doing most of the heavy lifting on offense. Brogdon is struggling with his efficiency lately but his usage is still high while his his assist rate and rebound numbers are still in tact. A matchup against Trae Young should help him get easier looks and this is a great spot to get some positive regression on his shooting numbers.
Myles Turner is seeing regression in a big way with his block numbers. He was averaging over four blocks per game for the first month of the season and he has more than two blocks just once in his last eight games. This is leading to a decline in production for Turner which also comes with a dip in price. If this were a larger slate, I wouldn’t have interest in him, but with only four games, I am willing to take a shot on him in some GPP lineups and hope the defensive stats pick back up. However, he is a low priority center play.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Malcolm Brogdon, Domantas Sabonis, Myles Turner
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Malcolm Brogdon, Domantas Sabonis, Myles Turner
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks are one of my least favorite teams to target on this slate. The Pacers actually aren’t all that tough of a matchup this season but this is the tail end of a back-to-back for Atlanta and there isn’t much pricing value here. Trae Young is typically an option but this is a slate loaded with stars. There are other players that are higher priorities for me to pay up for. John Collins is publicly on the trade block and it looks like this is causing some chemistry issues which are also impacting his performance.
The only player I am getting to here as of now is Danilo Gallinari on FanDuel. He no longer has a minutes restriction and his salary is yet to go up on FanDuel. I have some concerns about his workload since Atlanta is playing on consecutive day so we need to make sure he isn’t resting tonight.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: None
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Danilo Gallinari
Latest NBA DFS Content
- NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks: Will There Be Double Elimination? (May 3)
- FanDuel Fantasy Basketball Cheat Sheet: Best Picks From NBA DFS Contest Sims | Paul George (May 3)
- DraftKings Fantasy Basketball Cheat Sheet: Best Picks From NBA DFS Contest Sims | Donovan Mitchell (May 3)
- NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks: Joel Embiid + Jalen Brunson (May 2)
- Underdog Fantasy Picks & Predictions Today: Josh Hart, Marathon Man (May 2)
- Stokastic DFS on Youtube
Houston Rockets at New York Knicks (EVEN): 213
Houston Rockets
Despite the small slate, we have a decent amount of injuries and value tonight. This starts with the Rockets who continue to play without Christian Wood. DeMarcus Cousins isn’t playing massive minutes in the last few games but this is a result of Houston playing in games that weren’t competitive. Two of the games were blowout losses and, last game, the Rockets went down big and needed to play small lineups to get extra shooting on the court. P.J. Tucker is questionable to play which could limit the amount of small ball options. If Tucker is out or limited, this should solidify Boogie’s minutes.
Due to foot and ankle soreness, Victor Oladipo is also out tonight. This increases the amount of playing time and usage towards Eric Gordon and John Wall, making both of them strong plays on this slate. Danuel House played over 30 minutes in each of the last three games so he is my favorite role player to roster. Sterling Brown and David Nwaba warrant consideration on DraftKings due to their salaries in the $3,000 range. Their are priced fairly on FanDuel.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, Danuel House, Sterling Brown, David Nwaba
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, Danuel House
New York Knicks
The Knicks are dealing with their own frontcourt injury. Mitchell Robinson was having one of his best games of the season yesterday until he fractured his hand. I expect this will force Nerlens Noel into the starting lineup which makes him one of the best plays on the slate. I love him for value and Noel has had a lot of fantasy success in the past when starting for other teams. He typically averages around a fantasy point per minute and is looking at 26-30 minutes of playing time as long as he starts over Taj Gibson. This also helps Julius Randle slightly although he was a viable play on FanDuel even if Robinson was playing.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Nerlens Noel
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Nerlens Noel, Julius Randle
Brooklyn Nets at Golden State Warriors (+4): 246
Brooklyn Nets
I have tried to avoid the Nets when they have all three of their stars active which is impossible to do tonight. This game against the Warriors has the highest total of the season at 246 points. This makes me want to get at least some exposure to the big three on the Nets. Due to positional scarcity, I am looking to prioritize James Harden and Kevin Durant. Since Kyrie only has point guard eligibility on DraftKings, he is more difficult to get into lineups than Harden and KD.
DeAndre Jordan is out due to personal reasons so there is value in the frontcourt for Brooklyn. The Nets don’t have to go big to matchup against the Warriors so I anticipate a lot of small ball lineups with Durant or Jeff Green at center. Brooklyn could also start Norvel Pelle although my assumption is that Green starts and makes for the best role player to roster.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Kevin Durant, James Harden, Jeff Green
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Kevin Durant, James Harden, Jeff Green
Golden State Warriors
Steph Curry is my overall favorite option to pay up for on this slate. On the Nets, I am confident that one of their stars will have a big game although I am not sure who. For Golden State, we know it needs Steph to have a big game to stay competitive. Curry is playing as well as ever this season and only trails Bradley Beal for the NBA lead in scoring. I expect Curry will pass him at some point this season. Curry has a 32.5% usage rate and is actually taking on a bigger role as the season progresses. In the last seven games, his usage is sitting at 34%. I am not willing to pay the price tag on Draymond Green but the pace of play makes Kelly Oubre and Andrew Wiggins viable secondary options.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Steph Curry, Andrew Wiggins, Kelly Oubre
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Steph Curry, Andrew Wiggins, Kelly Oubre
Miami Heat at Utah Jazz (-6): 216
Miami Heat
The Heat face the toughest matchup of any team on the slate. The Jazz are a wrecking ball right now and extremely tough to score both real life points and fantasy points against. Tyler Herro is expected back in action of sitting out last game due to a COVID scare which takes away the value from Miami that opened up last game. Beyond the tough matchup, the absence of Herro last game also led to inflated salaries for Miami players. There is nobody I want to go out of my way to target from this team.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: None
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: None
Utah Jazz
There is potential value on the Jazz although we need more information. Mike Conley is questionable to play after missing the last few games with a hamstring injury. If he returns, nobody stands out as a strong play from Utah. Joe Ingles is starting in place of Conley and putting up good production while Jordan Clarkson is getting additional run off the bench and showing more upside. Both of these guys are out of consideration if Conley returns. Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell also see more fantasy production when Conley is off the court. There is a decent amount of value if Conley is out but nothing to see if he is back.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: None
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: None
Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.
Looking for more NBA DFS picks content? We have loads of articles, data, cheat sheets and more on the Awesemo NBA home page. Just click HERE.
