NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Ownership Projections

For Thursday night, there are five NBA games on the calendar, and below are some of my favorite NBA daily fantasy picks for both FanDuel and DraftKings based on Awesemo’s grades and values.

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NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: Awesemo Grades | Feb. 4

Power Forward: Draymond Green

DraftKings Grades: C, Values: B

FanDuel Grades: C, Values: B

Tonight, and for the next few weeks, the Warriors will be without centers James Wiseman (wrist) and Kevon Looney (ankle). This season Steve Kerr has preferred to start Green at power forward next to one of these centers, but with both of these players now on the shelf, Greens should slide over and start at the five spot. With Wiseman inactive and Looney only playing the first half of Tuesday’s loss to the Celtics, Green finished with 31.75 DraftKings points across 36.3 minutes. This is the most playing time Green has received this season by a notable 4 minutes, and he should get 30-35 minutes tonight in a 3-point spread against Dallas.

In the five Warriors contests that have been decided by single digits in 2020-21, Green is averaging 31.2 DraftKings points with 31.8 minutes per game. Plus, this West matchup carries the highest over/under of Thursday night (228.5 points), and the Mavericks have been susceptible to centers all season, allowing the eighth-most DraftKings points per game to the position. Green’s DFS salaries don’t reflect his expected workload, and we must utilize him tonight before his price tags adjust to life without Wiseman and Looney.

Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 22.6%, FanDuel 19.7%

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Point Guard: Luka Doncic

DraftKings Grades: A, Values: B

FanDuel Grades: A, Values: B

Doncic is a building block tonight with Kristaps Porzingis expected to be rested for this second leg of a back-to-back. He saw 34 minutes in last night’s win over the Hawks and has yet to play two games in two nights so far this season. When the forward has been off the floor this year, Doncic’s usage rate has elevated to an absurd 38.2%. He is fresh off 64 DraftKings points against the Hawks and is amassing 58.4 DraftKings points per game in his last 20 starts in game totals north of 225 points.

Doncic also has the advantage of being on his home court, where he has supplied 2.0 more DraftKings points per game over his career. He easily has the highest raw projection on both sites tonight, but at $10,900 on DraftKings, he is a top-10 point-per-dollar value based on Awesemo’s projections.

Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 30.7%, FanDuel 33.3%

Point Guard: Anfernee Simons

DraftKings Grades: C, Values: C

FanDuel Grades: D, Values: B

For the first time this season, Damian Lillard (abdominal) will miss a game for the Blazers. All of Jusuf Nurkic (wrist), C.J. McCollum, Derrick Jones (foot) and Nassir Little have also been ruled out, leaving Simons in a hefty role as the only true point guard left on this roster. Obviously this situation doesn’t happen often, and the last time both McCollum and Lillard missed a contest collectively was April 10, 2019.

Simons earned the first start of his career that night and exploded for 62.5 DraftKings against the Kings. He didn’t sit a single minute of this victory, and while we cannot expect this again, Simons should see significant minutes tonight against the 76ers, blowout or not (Philadelphia -10). Simons is the second-youngest player of the nine remaining Blazers available for Thursday night, and he should log a minimum of 25 minutes with the potential for high-30s if the Blazers ever managed to keep this tilt close. This season Simons has contributed 0.9 DraftKings points per minute when McCollum, Lillard and Nurkic have been off the floor, and 26.4 DraftKings points per game when he has obtained 25 minutes or more. The lone concern here is that Simons aggravated his hamstring Tuesday against the Wizards, but he has been removed from the injury report and doesn’t carry any designation ahead of this matchup with the Sixers. Hamstring injuries are always worrisome, but the reward outweighs the risk tonight, with Simons so cheap on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Update: Simons will not start tonight and will be limited to 20 minutes. This makes him a very tough sell for any format on Wednesday night.

Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 0.5%, FanDuel 0.7%

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Shooting Guard: Eric Gordon

DraftKings Grades: B, Values: B

FanDuel Grades: C, Values: A

Last night, with John Wall (Achilles) out and Victor Oladipo active, Gordon posted 35.25 DraftKings against the Thunder. Now Oladipo will be rested and Wall is expected to return, keeping Gordon in a large role as one of the Rockets’ top options. He garnered a 31.5% usage rate on Wednesday and has handled a team-high 32.9% usage in the two full games he has played sans Oladipo and James Harden. Wall was available for both of these contests, and Gordon still supplied 38.5 DraftKings points per game.

His matchup against the Grizzlies rates poorly, with them ranking fourth in defensive efficiency, but Memphis and Houston both rank inside the top 12 in pace this season, and this tilt sports a healthy total of 224 points. It is also projected to stay very competitive (Memphis -2.5), and Gordon should surpass the 30-zminute mark, which is plenty of time for him to beat his price tags on DraftKings and FanDuel. In total he is generating 1.1 DraftKings points per minute without Oladipo and Harden, and Gordon is expected to carry rather low ownerships tonight via Awesemo’s projections.

Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 9.2%, FanDuel 9.5%

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