Thursday presents a six-game NBA DFS slate. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS ownership projections, NBA DFS players can examine leverage data from Stokastic’s Boom/Bust Tool to find the best high- and low-owned players to help build lineups capable of shooting to the top of the GPP leaderboards. These are the top NBA DFS picks for leverage for Thursday.
NBA DFS Picks Leverage & Optimizer Plays | Jan. 12
High-End Tier
Stokastic projects Luka Doncic for around 20% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight, but quite honestly, this isn’t enough attention. NBA DFS players should heavily target the superstar. The Mavs get a gorgeous matchup against the Lakers, who rank 22nd in defensive efficiency and third in pace, which is a massive upgrade for this Dallas squad that ranks dead last in pace.
The Mavs’ implied team total ranks third on the slate (119 points) and this game’s total is the largest on the board (235 points), which is the highest total for a game Doncic has played in. Further, the Lakers should keep this close, as they are only 3-point underdogs.
Dorian Finney-Smith (adductor) will miss his 11th straight for the Mavs, and with him sidelined, Doncic has produced 72 DraftKings points per game with an eye-popping 40.7% usage rate. In Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool, the guard’s ceiling is the highest on the slate by over 10 fantasy points.
Kyrie Irving makes for a great stud to pair with Doncic tonight even though Stokastic projects him for over 20% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Kevin Durant (knee) is out for at least a month, which will put a massive weight on Irving’s shoulders.
Irving’s usage jumps by 5.6 percentage points to 33.7% with Durant off the floor. His assist rate rises 5.9 percentage points to 26.9%. With the massive workload, Irving generates 1.4 DraftKings PPM, which is a large upgrade from his 1.2 DraftKings PPM average for the season.
Irving will start his journey as Brooklyn’s lead scoring against the rivaled Boston Celtics tonight. Not only is there a serious revenge narrative here for the point guard, but this is also a crucial tilt, as the Nets sit only two games behind the Celtics for the Eastern Conference lead. Irving won’t disappoint in this anticipated matchup and is an excellent high-end value that can’t be ignored.
With Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee), Khris Middleton (knee), Joe Ingles (rest) and Grayson Allen (ankle) out tonight, Jrue Holiday and Bobby Ports will be chalky. However, they are core plays with their club so understaffed.
Holiday leads the Bucks with 1.4 DraftKings points per minute with Antetokounmpo and Middleton off the floor. That huge number is thanks to a team-high 34.6% usage rate, which is a huge 6-percentage point upgrade from his season average.
Portis ranks second on the team without Middleton and Antetokounmpo with a 24.2% usage rate and 1.3 DraftKings points per minute. Regardless of this poor matchup against the Heat, who rank fifth in defensive efficiency, Holiday and Portis should effortlessly beat their current price tags tonight.
For some lower-owned expensive options, Russell Westbrook is an incredible target with Stokastic projecting him for only around 1% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The Lakers-Mavericks game owns the highest total on the slate (235 points) and Lonnie Walker (knee) will remain sidelined.
Excluding January 2nd, when Westbrook exited after only logging 11 minutes due to a minor foot injury, the former MVP has generated 48.2 DraftKings points per game in his last five games without Walker. Anthony Davis (foot) also remains unavailable, and with him and Walker off the court, Westbrook’s usage has increased by 2.9 percentage points to 30.9%. He has even contributed 1.4 DraftKings points per minute in those situations.
Value Tier
With Tyler Herro and Kyle Lowry out tonight, Gabe Vincent is expected to be the most-owned player on both DraftKings and FanDuel, according to Stokastic’s projections. The two guards missed Tuesday’s action, leading Vincent to start and rank second on the team with a season-high 39.5 minutes, resulting in 23 DraftKings points against the Thunder.
Vincent should have to play almost 40 minutes again tonight, making him a tough value to pass up on at his low price tags, even with the heavy ownership coming his way. Vincent is averaging 0.8 DraftKings points per minute with both Herro and Lowry off the floor.
In Durant’s absence, Ben Simmons projects for top-10 ownership at DraftKings and FanDuel, according to Stokastic’s projections. While the forward is guaranteed to see more minutes with Durant injured, Simmons’ production actually suffers without the superstar. Simmons’ usage decreases 2.9 percentage points to a team-low 11.6% without Durant. His fantasy average drops to 0.9 DraftKings points per minute.
NBA DFS players should avoid rostering a low-usage asset like Simmons. Instead, consider pivoting to Seth Curry, especially on DraftKings, where the sharpshooter is much cheaper and expected to be less owned. With Durant off the court this season, Curry produces 0.9 DraftKings points per minute with a 21% usage rate, which is a 3.3 percentage point lift from his season average.
With Al Horford sitting out tonight, Robert Williams makes for an elite GPP target. Stokastic anticipates single-digit ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel for him tonight. Williams hasn’t played since Monday, and this marks the first time this season he’ll play without Horford.
Williams should start at center for the Celtics and approach 25 minutes, giving him plenty of time to destroy his price tags. Williams is collecting 1.2 DraftKings points per minute this season and 27.3 DraftKings points per game when playing more than 20 minutes (six games).
Situations to Monitor
Jaylen Brown (adductor) is questionable tonight, while Marcus Smart (knee) will return after missing the last two. If Brown ends up inactive, Smart and Jayson Tatum will require exposure. In the two games that Brown has missed this season, Tatum and Smart have played brilliantly by scoring 59.4 and 52.3 DraftKings points per game, respectively.
Tatum’s usage rises 3.4 percentage points to 35.6% and he scores 1.43 DraftKings points per minute when Brown sits. Malcolm Brogdon would also rate very well if Brown sits and could get overlooked for this value-packed slate. With Brown off the floor, Brogdon’s usage increases by 3.5 percentage points, and he ranks second on the team with 1.2 DraftKings points per minute.
Damian Lillard (ankle) carries a questionable tag tonight against the Cavs, and his absence would be a huge boost for Anfernee Simons. Simons’ usage rises 4.5 percentage points to a team-high 29.9% when Lillard sits. He also produces 1.1 DraftKings points per minute without the superstar. Since this is one of the last games of the night to tip-off, and because the Cavaliers play tough defense, Simons could get slept on tonight and be a key to winning GPPs.
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