NBA DFS Picks Today: Don't Miss the Leverage on LeBron

Last night’s NBA DFS slate was full of late injury news, unknowns and clear value opportunities. In other words, it was a typical night in the NBA. Thursday’s slate looks a bit different. No slate-changing news has broken yet, so NBA DFS players have fewer opportunities to find value plays in the $3,000 price range. As of 3 p.m. ET, Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool shows several popular names in the mid- and high-price ranges popping as strong “boom” candidates.

Keep checking Stokastic’s starting lineups page to get a feel for any changes as lock approaches. In the meantime, there are a few names you’ll want to consider when making your early NBA DFS roster builds, including one household name that you might want to fade.

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Boom/Bust NBA DFS Picks & Projections Today

NBA DFS Play: LeBron James $10,900 DraftKings/$11,000 FanDuel

38.46.% DraftKings Boom/32.27% FanDuel Boom

It’s rare that a spend-up option tops our Boom/Bust tool. LeBron James is the third-priciest player on the slate, yet he comes in with our fifth-highest boom score on DraftKings and ranks sixth on FanDuel. Two factors make this play stand out.

First, James is projected for 17% and 12% ownership at DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively. Those rates make him the most highly leveraged play in the top 20 of our Boom/Bust rankings.

Another compelling reason to get over the field on LeBron James is his position eligibility. He is one of just three small forward-eligible players in our top 20 on DraftKings. The other two, Pat Connaughton and Max Strus, are both fine plays but lack James’ raw points and upside. The only other way to lock in those numbers at the position is with Jayson Tatum, who slots in 15 spots lower in our Boom/Bust tool at DraftKings and 17 at FanDuel.

The slate dynamics could change before lock as more players get ruled out. If strong value plays open up, they are likely to rise to the top of the list, but James should remain a top spend-up option and offers significant leverage.

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NBA DFS Play: Gabe Vincent $4,000 DraftKings/$4,100 FanDuel

49.31% DraftKings Boom/33.69% FanDuel Boom

Injuries are piling up on the Miami Heat — the team only had eight players on Tuesday night. A similar situation looms tonight against the Milwaukee Bucks. Gabe Vincent benefited from Miami’s tight rotation at guard on Tuesday. He logged 39 minutes and played the entire fourth quarter.

Vincent didn’t have great numbers, but the sheer number of minutes should allow him to put up a strong fantasy score on most nights. If Vincent’s statistical output regresses back to the mean tonight, he won’t have a problem paying off either his $4,000 price at DraftKings or his $4,100 price FanDuel. He currently is projected for 44.8% ownership on DraftKings and 67.7% at FanDuel.

Those numbers are positively leveraged on DraftKings. Vincent is the highest-owned player on FanDuel by a large margin. His 58% optimal rate on FanDuel is negatively leveraged, but he opens up opportunities to find salary relief and get unique elsewhere in your lineup. This could be chalk worth eating on tonight on FanDuel. Per usual, stay tuned to the NBA news cycle leading up to lock to see if more value emerges.

NBA DFS Play: Jrue Holiday $7,700 DraftKings/$7,300 FanDuel

46.02% DraftKings Boom/46.74% FanDuel Boom

The other side of the Heat-Bucks game features our highest “boom” candidate on DraftKings, Jrue Holiday. Holiday, who also ranks second in our tool for FanDuel, has a 34.2% optimal rate on DraftKings. That is slightly negatively leveraged (2%) but manageable within most roster constructions. His middling price in the $7,000 range on both sites still allows enough flexibility to gain leverage in other spots.

Tonight’s slate has several PG-eligible players toward the top of the Boom/Bust tool, so the positional considerations are still important. With Gabe Vincent as the top value at guard, many NBA DFS rosters will feature both Holiday and Vincent. Be aware of the ownership of this combination while keeping in mind that they project as the best bets to Boom.

NBA DFS Fade: Kyrie Irving $3,400 DraftKings/$9,300 FanDuel

42.46% DraftKings Boom/26.63% FanDuel Boom

The same cannot be said for Kyrie Irving tonight, who is another PG who comes in toward the top of our list. Unfortunately, Irving is gaining steam among the field, and his ownership far outweighs his chances of being optimal. Irving has a -14.9% leverage score on DraftKings and 7% on FanDuel but is getting rostered at significantly higher rates. We currently project Irving to appear in 39.4% of the lineups at DraftKings and 23.8% at FanDuel.

While it’s certainly fine to get some exposure to Irving to lock in his strong median projection, it’s hard to eat that negative leverage when Jrue Holiday has a higher Boom% in our tool at a lower price point. Holiday’s raw projection is only four points below Irving’s. Just keep monitoring this situation and the entire slate and tune into Live Before Lock to get a feel for how these numbers shape up as tip-off approaches.

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