Thursday’s NBA action is quite frontloaded. Four of the six games in the featured slate will tip off in the first 30 minutes, and the NBA DFS slates at both DraftKings and FanDuel will start at 7 p.m. ET. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups, including MVP candidate Luka Doncic.
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NBA DFS Picks: Thursday, Jan. 12
Core Play of the Day — Luka Doncic: Dallas Mavericks-Los Angeles Lakers
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 66.34 | FanDuel: 63.92
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings 19.9% | FanDuel: 23.1%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $12,800 | FanDuel: $12,200
The Mavericks will face the Lakers in Los Angeles tonight. Dallas, led by Luka Doncic, is a 3.5-point road favorite. The Lakers should keep this one close as both teams need a win.
The Mavs have dropped their last two games and three of their last four. They now find themselves tied with the Kings. Both teams are 3.5 games behind the Nuggets for the best record in the Western Conference. The Lakers had a five-game winning streak come to an end in Denver on Monday.
Donic currently leads the league with 34.2 points per game. He also contributes 8.9 rebounds, 8.7 assists and 2.3 combined blocks and steals per game. He scores just over 60 fantasy points per game, which is a seven-point jump over last year.
Meanwhile, the Lakers have been sieve on defense all season. If a few things break in Doncic’s favor, he could flirt with 70 fantasy points tonight. LeBron James (ankle) missed Monday’s game but is expected to play tonight after having the last five days to recuperate.
Pascal Siakam: Toronto Raptors-Charlotte Hornets
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 49.81 | FanDuel: 48.01
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings 6.8% | FanDuel: 21.7%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $10,300 | FanDuel: $9,600
Now that the Raptors are at full strength, Pascal Siakam has seen his fantasy production regress to last year’s mean. That remains a strong baseline, but unless someone sits, Siakam won’t be a priority play — except for good matchup spots like this one.
Siakam just racked up 28 points, eight rebounds and seven assists against Charlotte on Tuesday. The teams will run it back tonight. The Hornets have an abysmal frontcourt that cannot defend the rim, and they are one of the worst rebounding groups in the league.
The main knock against Siakam on DraftKings is his center-only eligibility. However, he has both center and power forward eligibility at FanDuel. Siakam could get lost in the mix of the standard stars and scrubs build tonight, which makes him a nice tournament differentiator.
Milwaukee Bucks-Miami Heat
The Bucks are on the wrong end of a back-to-back. They just beat the Hawks by nine in Atlanta last night. Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee) and Jrue Holiday (hamstring) played 35 and 34 minutes, though either or both are candidates to get the night off. If they play, they are solid tournament targets.
But if Antetokounmpo or Holiday sit, Bobby Portis, Pat Connaughton, Grayson Allen and Jevon Carter would all see a boost in their opportunities and baseline minutes projection. Keep an eye on Allen because he tweaked his ankle early in last night’s game. If he sits, MarJon Beauchamp should see an uptick with Joe Ingles unlikely to play on the back-to-back.
Miami will once again run shorthanded with Tyler Herro (Achilles), Kyle Lowry (knee) and Caleb Martin (thigh) all ruled out. Additionally, Dewayne Dedmon will serve a one-game suspension, so there will be plenty of minutes to go around to the remaining ambulatory Miami players.
Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo (wrist) are borderline core plays in all formats. Max Strus and Gabe Vincent are two of the best point-per-dollar options on DraftKings, with Haywood Highsmith (knee) close behind. Highsmith falls off on FanDuel, but Victor Oladipo replaces him. Oladipo costs $100 less on FanDuel than on DraftKings.
Orlando Robinson got the start at center on Tuesday, but with Adebayo out and Dedmon tossed after playing only five minutes, he logged only 24 minutes due to foul trouble. Tonight he isn’t particularly interesting with Adebayo likely to play.
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Additional NBA DFS Building Blocks Picks Today – Sports Betting Opportunities
Butler looks good in the sports wagering market with a 5.5 total for his assist prop against the Bucks. Lowry is out, so that means Butler, Adebayo and Oladipo will work as the main facilitators. Over the last two seasons, Butler has averaged 5.5 assists over the last two seasons, but when Lowry sits, Butler sees a 10% boost in his assist rate.
The NBA Bet Pro projections have Butler for 6.9 assists and a 67% likelihood of surpassing his line of 5.5. We can utilize this wager as part of a parlay to increase the upside potential of the 9% expected return on investment at -115 on BetMGM.
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Boston Celtics-Brooklyn Nets
This is a back-to-back for the Celtics after they bested the Pelicans by 11 in Boston. Robert Williams III did not play on Wednesday as the team has been easing him back into action but he could be back in the rotation tonight. Al Horford is a strong rest candidate. Marcus Smart (knee) has missed the last two games and is currently questionable for tonight.
There are a lot of if-thens for Boston depending on who plays or not. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are neutral options, who would get a boost if Smart remains out. Grant Williams currently looks like the best discount dandy for the Celtics since he should see a minutes increase if any one of Smart, Horford or Robert Williams III are out.
Kevin Durant will miss the next month with a strained knee, so the Nets should make some major changes to their rotation. This injury should be the impetus for Jacque Vaughn to play T.J. Warren for 26-28 minutes off the bench. Warren missed all of last year with a foot injury and played only four games during the 2020-21 season. He has played 26 minutes or more in three of his 16 games for the Nets with a high of 31.5 on New Year’s Eve.
Nic Claxton has been dealing with a sore shoulder, but he is expected to remain in the starting lineup. The absence of Durant should increase his rebounding and scoring opportunities. Similarly, Ben Simmons should see an uptick in rebounding and assists, plus there is now an above-average chance that he can hold onto a spot in the closing lineup.
Kyrie Irving will assume the role of primary scorer but there is no need to force him into lineups tonight. The rest of the Nets are likely to see their roles ebb and flow depending on in-game scenarios.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks Building Blocks Today
Things will be hopping up until lock with four games tipping off in the first 30 minutes. NBA DFS players must monitor the news during the 2.5-hour window before the West Coast doubleheader gets underway at 10 p.m. ET. Also, be sure to tune into the Stokastic Live Deeper Dive and Before Lock shows at 5 p.m. ET on YouTube, courtesy of No House Advantage.
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