The NBA is offering up a nice nine-game DFS slate this evening, and this article will analyze Stokastic’s ownership projections to see how to best handle high-and low-owned players in order to gain leverage in DFS tournaments. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS leverage picks for today, including Precious Achiuwa, to help you build optimal NBA DFS lineups.
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NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays | Jan. 28
In another rare case of the slate’s top overall play also being the top leverage play, Precious Achiuwa couldn’t look any better in his matchup with the Portland Trail Blazers. While Achiuwa is projected for 26.9% ownership on DraftKings, he still slots in way under-owned, and, as of this writing, he looks like one of the top options DFS players can look to for leverage.
Matched up against a Portland team that ranks 30th in the NBA against opposing centers, Achiuwa should continue to play big minutes. The former Memphis Tiger has played 36 or more minutes in each of the past three games. At only $4,400 at DraftKings, Achiuwa looks like a free square in all formats
While he is more expensive on FanDuel at $5,600, Achiuwa still isn’t getting nearly enough love, as he owns the third-highest optimal percentage of any player on the slate. With Toronto a five-point underdog in a game with a 231.5-point total, Achiuwa stands out as a building-block type play, especially in tournaments. He is currently projected to be optimal a whopping 35.3% of the time on DraftKings and 32% of the time on FanDuel, offering really strong leverage across both sites.
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Houston guard Josh Christopher is also getting overlooked. Priced at only $3,200 on DraftKings and $3,600 on FanDuel, Christopher is barely getting love on either site. While he isn’t as safe as Achiuwa in terms of raw production, he is right there with the Toronto big man as far as leverage goes across both sites.
In a really good spot against a Detroit backcourt that struggles mightily with opposing guards, Christopher is projected to be optimal 7.3% of the time on DraftKings and 14.4% of the time on FanDuel. Despite his high optimality percentages, NBA DFS players are forgetting about the former Arizona State star on both sites, as he is projected to be only 0.3% owned on DraftKings and 0.7% owned on FanDuel. Like Achiuwa, Christopher is more of a solid player than a spectacular one, but he offers surprisingly good leverage on both sites, and with both Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr. out for the Rockets, there’s a lot to like about him in tournaments tonight.
On the flip side, Dorian Finney-Smith rates poorly from a leverage perspective on both DraftKings and FanDuel in Stokastic’s Boom/Bust Tool and might be worth fading. At only $4,400 on DraftKings, Finney-Smith is projected to find himself in 37% of lineups with an optimality percentage of only 17.9%.
Finney-Smith’s affordable price and strong recent production will make him a popular value tonight, but with other value players like Achiuwa and Christopher going under-owned, it might be wise to avoid him in large-field tournaments.
Situations to Monitor
Multiple big-name players have picked up questionable tags for tonight’s action. They include: LeBron James, Jusuf Nurkic, OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, Jeremy Sochan, Marcus Morris Sr., Lonnie Walker IV and Josh Richardson.
NBA injury news is always unpredictable, and it seems like every night we get unexpected scratches, sometimes at the last minute. That’s especially the case on weekends when beat reporters and staff are less aware of team situations. Tune into the Stokastic Live Before Lock show on YouTube at 6 p.m. ET for all of the up-to-date analysis as late NBA news breaks and changes to the best NBA DFS picks and plays.
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