NBA Bubble action is underway, and with it comes NBA DFS on DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. Greg Ehrenberg looks at some NBA DFS Picks to build around and fade for Tuesday’s slate.
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NBA DFS Value Pick: Boban Marjanovic
DraftKings $3,000, FanDuel $3,500, Yahoo $10, SuperDraft 1.95x
Playing Marjanovic is one of the best reasons to make DFS lineups during the final stretch of the season. With Kristaps Porzingis, Luka Doncic and Dorian Finney-Smith all out for the Mavericks, there is a massive playing time and usage void to fill. Porzingis is playing most of the center minutes lately, and I expect Marjanovic to slot into his starting spot. Playing against the Jazz isn’t a great matchup, but there is reason to think they will rest core players after getting eliminated from winning the division last game.
Predicting minutes for Marjanovic is not an easy task. Here is the good news: He doesn’t have to play a ton to payoff his price tag. When Doncic and Porzingis are off the court, Marjanovic carries a 30.6% usage rate and scores just under 50 fantasy points per 36 minutes. Anything over 20 minutes puts Marjanovic in line for close to 30 fantasy points, which is a great result for his salary. There is also a narrative to consider. Marjanovic is a fan favorite, and this is not an important game for playoff positioning. This could mean the Mavs will opt to give Marjanovic extended playing time at the end of the season to make an otherwise meaningless bubble game more entertaining.
NBA DFS Stud Pick: Devin Booker
DraftKings $8,700, FanDuel $8,200, Yahoo $37, SuperDraft N/A
Very few teams playing on today’s slate have anything to gain with a win. This is the reality of the final games of the NBA season. For the Suns, winning today is a must. Phoenix is fighting for a playoff spot and having a ton of success in the bubble. This is the only undefeated team since the restart. On a slate filled with so much uncertainty in regards to playing time for stars, Booker and Deandre Ayton make sense because we know the Suns are motivated to play their stars extended minutes.
On paper, playing the Thunder is a tough matchup. In reality, I am not sure this is the case. Oklahoma City is playing on the tail end of a back-to-back, and its spot in the standings is secure. This could mean guys like Chris Paul and Danilo Gallinari won’t play. We saw some of this yesterday when Steven Adams and Nerlens Noel both sat out. At the very least, I don’t expect a full allotment of minutes for Paul, and he’s the core of the Thunder’s defense.
NBA DFS Fade Pick: Kyle Lowry
DraftKings $8,600, FanDuel $6,800, Yahoo $36, SuperDraft 1.3x
Lowry has a long list of injuries throughout his career. After Toronto clinched the Atlantic Division yesterday with a win over the Grizzlies, there is no need for starters to play full minutes. At 34 years old, it makes sense to get Lowry rest as the Raptors gear up for a playoff run. As the defending champions, this team has title hopes, and their chance for a push goes out the window if Lowry is hurt. Rest is a possibility, and even if active, I can’t envision him getting to 30 minutes. With his price expensive across the DFS industry, there are plenty of more favorable plays with more secure minutes. At this point in the season, I make it a point to try to target players on teams with something to play for.
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