This is Awesemo’s primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in Awesemo’s Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.
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NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | May 4
Update 1: The Pistons have ruled out Jerami Grant, Wayne Ellington, Josh Jackson, Rodney McGruder, Mason Plumlee and Dennis Smith. Hamidou Diallo and Frank Jackson are both questionable. I touched on Isaiah Stewart at the center position, but there is obviously a lot more to see here. Killian Hayes and Saddiq Bey remain viable options as they have both produced around 0.90 DraftKings points per minute under these conditions. Hayes has yet to play a back-to-back, but since he isn’t on the injury report, I am assuming that we will get another 28 to 30 minutes from him tonight. Bey can be expected to play into the mid-thirties. Josh Jackson’s absence opens up additional usage as well.
Frank Jackson’s and/or Diallo’s minutes will be more secure with Josh Jackson sidelined, though both of these players are questionable as well. Jackson played 35 minutes last night while Diallo played 26, and they should get similar run if they are able to play.
Saben Lee typically hasn’t been used alongside Hayes, but if Diallo and Frank Jackson are both out, Dwayne Casey may not have much choice which would make Lee a strong option at minimum salary.
Update 2: I forgot to add Terry Rozier into the article after Charlotte’s injury report came out. He is likely to play 36-plus minutes tonight and I expect that 35 to 40 percent of those minutes will come without Ball on the floor. He has a 26.4 percent usage rate and 27 percent assist rate without Hayward or Ball on the floor this season so he is likely to be extremely productive over those minutes. He has a 23.1 percent usage rate and 15.6 percent assist rate alongside Ball without Hayward. He stands out as a top shooting guard option given Charlotte’s injury news.
Point Guard
Luka Doncic ($10,800 DraftKings/$10,900 FanDuel) has a brutal matchup tonight against the Miami Heat. Miami is one of the least appealing matchups in DFS as they have played at the league’s slowest pace over the last month. They rank in the middle of the pack in defensive efficiency over that time, but they have been one of the most efficient defenses over the course of the entire season. Doncic, of course, is capable of posting a big game against anyone so he still has tournament appeal if his ownership is low, but it will be very difficult to prioritize him tonight with several strong alternatives elsewhere. Kristaps Porzingis is doubtful tonight, but his absence hasn’t benefited Doncic in the past as Doncic has averaged 1.57 DraftKings points per minute in 35 games played without Porzingis and 1.67 DraftKings points per minute in 84 games alongside Porzingis over the last two seasons.
Stephen Curry ($10,400 DraftKings/$9,700 FanDuel) runs it back against the Pelicans tonight. This game’s 235 total is the second highest on the slate and we should see plenty of scoring again tonight after there were 231 points scored last night. Curry has been excellent without Kelly Oubre on the floor this season and Oubre will be out for the foreseeable future. In nine games without Oubre this season, Curry has a 39.5 percent usage rate. He has averaged 1.73 DraftKings points per minute in those games. By comparison, Curry has averaged 1.45 DraftKings points per minute with a 33.0 percent usage rate. Part of the increase in per-minute production can be attributed to a six point increase in 3-point percentage in the games without Oubre, but Oubre’s absence also opens up more usage for Curry and makes the offense as a whole more efficient.
Kyrie Irving ($9,600 DraftKings/$9,500 FanDuel) is probably a little bit overpriced for his average production with Kevin Durant active, but he is still one of the most talented players in the NBA and he is playing in a game with a 242 point total. Irving has averaged 1.27 DraftKings points per minute in 14 games alongside Durant without James Harden this season. Curry will most likely dominate ownership at this price point. While Curry is the “better” play, his presence will most likely push down Irving’s ownership and make him an appealing tournament target. We currently have Irving projected to be under-owned in the Boom/Bust tool.
LaMelo Ball ($7,100 DraftKings/$6,200 FanDuel) has been thrust back into action quicker than anticipated. James Borrego said prior to his first game that he would be limited to stints of four to five minutes, yet he played about 28 minutes. In his second game, he played 30.3 minutes and most likely lost his final rotation to garbage time. It seems likely that we get 34-plus minutes from Ball if tonight’s game is competitive, given the number of injuries the Hornets are dealing with. Ball has played 550 minutes without Gordon Hayward on the floor this season and he has averaged 1.33 DraftKings points per minute with a 27.1 percent usage rate and 34.3 percent assist rate. He looks like a great mid-range option tonight against the Pistons.
Delon Wright ($5,100 DraftKings/$5,200 FanDuel) is the most likely candidate to replace Tyrese Haliburton in Sacramento’s starting lineup tonight. Wright played the final 20 to 21 minutes of Sunday’s game after Haliburton’s injury and he is the logical replacement. He has played a total of 88 minutes without Haliburton or De’Aaron Fox on the floor since joining the Kings. In those minutes, he has averaged 1.19 DraftKings points per minute with a 21.5 percent usage rate and 28.8 percent assist rate. Wright averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute in 36 games with the Pistons this season and I think it is likely that we get somewhere between those two rates tonight which makes him a strong value.
Theo Maledon ($4,600 DraftKings/$4,800 FanDuel) isn’t the most exciting option, but he is a little underpriced for a favorable matchup against the Kings. Sacramento is ninth in pace over the last month and they have been the least efficient defense in the league over that time. Maledon has played 14 games alongside Luguentz Dort without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander this season and he has averaged 0.79 DraftKings points per minute in 29.9 minutes per game. There is a good chance that he produces at an above-average rate tonight against the Kings and it is likely that we get 28 to 30 minutes.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Stephen Curry, LaMelo Ball, Delon Wright
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Stephen Curry, LaMelo Ball, Delon Wright
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Shooting Guard
Fred VanVleet ($7,800 DraftKings/$7,100 FanDuel) has averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute and 36.6 minutes per game in 35 games played alongside Kyle Lowry and Pascal Siakam this season. He has a relatively difficult matchup tonight against the Clippers, but the shooting guard position doesn’t have many great options and he is likely to be one of the leaders in minutes played.
Andrew Wiggins ($7,200 DraftKings/$7,100 FanDuel) is a similar option to VanVleet, though his ceiling is a bit lower since he plays alongside Stephen Curry and is less likely to take over his team’s offense than VanVleet is. Wiggins has averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute with a 22.9 percent usage rate in nine games alongside Curry without Oubre this season. While the per-minute production isn’t exciting, he has also averaged 36.2 minutes per game in those games and he faces a Pelicans team that is fourth in pace over the last month. Wiggins is inexpensive enough that he is one of the better value plays on the slate, according to the Awesemo NBA DFS projections.
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”nba” date=”05/04/2021″ team=”warriors”]
Luguentz Dort ($6,100 DraftKings/$5,600 SF FanDuel) is eligible at both guard positions on DraftKings and at small forward on FanDuel. He is reasonably priced on both sites, though he is probably the most valuable on FanDuel. Dort has benefited from Gilgeous-Alexander’s absences this season, averaging 0.99 DraftKings points per minute with a 26.6 percent usage rate in 17 games played without him. Dort is still a risky option because he doesn’t contribute much in the way of peripherals and he is an inefficient shooter, but he is facing a weak Sacramento team that is likely to elevate his production.
Donte DiVincenzo ($4,600 DraftKings/$5,100 FanDuel) gets a mention here just because he is cheap at a relatively weak position and playing in a game with a 242 point total. DiVincenzo has averaged 27.4 minutes per game over the last month and 26.8 minutes per game overall this season in games with Milwaukee’s main three players active. We can pretty safely expect 26 to 28 minutes from DiVincenzo tonight and he has averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute in the 42 games that he has played alongside Jrue Holiday, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton this season.
Malik Monk ($4,300 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel) is likely to be forced into a lot of minutes tonight with Cody Martin, Miles Bridges, Devonte’ Graham and P.J. Washington joining Hayward on the sidelines. Monk played 27 minutes against Miami in his last game, and while he benefited from garbage time, the important takeaway is that he is physically able to play that many minutes and he is being allowed to do so. Monk has averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute this season and I expect that we see 28 to 30 minutes from him tonight.
Terence Davis ($4,000 DraftKings/$3,800 FanDuel) is likely to benefit from Haliburton’s absence, though it needs to be mentioned that there is some risk whenever we are trying to predict Luke Walton’s bench rotations. For example, Justin James played about 12 minutes after Haliburton’s injury on Sunday compared to about six minutes for Davis. Still, Haliburton was playing about 36 minutes in competitive games so there are a lot of minutes to replace. James played about eight first half minutes before Haliburton’s injury so, even if we assume James plays 20 to 24 minutes tonight, there are still 25 to 30 minutes that need to be absorbed and the most likely candidates are Wright and Davis with the remainder falling to Guy. Davis has averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute in 77 minutes without Fox or Haliburton on the floor since joining the Kings and 0.86 DraftKings points per minute overall this season. If we get about 24 minutes from Davis, he should be able to pay off his current salary.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Fred VanVleet, Andrew Wiggins, Donte DiVincenzo, Malik Monk
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Fred VanVleet, Andrew Wiggins, Terence Davis
Small Forward
Jimmy Butler ($8,900 DraftKings/$9,600 FanDuel) is probably more of a luxury than a necessity on this slate, but he has been an excellent fantasy producer this season. Butler has averaged 1.33 DraftKings points per minute and 33.7 minutes per game in 44 games played alongside Bam Adebayo this season. One factor working against Butler tonight, in addition to his salary, is that this game is likely to be played at a very slow pace. Miami has been the slowest team in the league over the last month while Dallas ranks 27th in pace over that time. As good as Butler is, it may be difficult to make up the difference in possessions in this game compared to some others.
Brandon Ingram ($7,900 DraftKings/$7,300 FanDuel) leads the Pelicans with 34.6 minutes per game over the last month. In a total of 47 games with Zion Williamson and Lonzo Ball active this season, Ingram has averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute with a 28.1 percent usage rate and 21.3 percent assist rate. He has struggled a bit recently, averaging only 1.10 DraftKings points per minute in 10 games alongside those two over the last month, but his struggles are accounted for in his price tag.
Buddy Hield ($7,300 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel) is a difficult player to trust, even when his team is short-handed, because he doesn’t do much to create for himself or others. He is a scoring dependent three-point shooter and doesn’t bring a whole lot else to the table. Still, he is likely to get increased looks tonight without Fox, Haliburton or Harrison Barnes and he is facing the Oklahoma City Thunder who are second in pace and 27th in defensive rating over the last month. In 137 minutes without Fox or Haliburton on the floor this season, Hield has averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute with a 22.1 percent usage rate and 17 percent assist rate. Hield played 42.1 minutes against Dallas on Sunday and Awesemo NBA DFS projections have him slated for about 37 minutes again tonight.
Cedi Osman ($5,500 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel) will probably start in place of Darius Garland tonight. Osman has started four games within the last month and he has played at least 32 minutes in all four games with an average of 36.3 minutes per game. He has averaged 0.82 DraftKings points per minute in 21 total starts this season. His salary has increased enough to where there is some risk since he isn’t a particularly good player and he has a tough matchup, but it’s difficult to find many players at this price point that have a chance at playing 36 minutes.
Kent Bazemore ($5,400 DraftKings/$5,800 FanDuel) played 31.1 minutes last night and is likely to give us another 30 to 32 minutes tonight with Oubre sidelined. Bazemore has started nine games alongside Curry without Oubre this season and has averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute and 29.7 minutes per game.
Naji Marshall ($4,200 DraftKings/$4,300 FanDuel) is a risky option but I am intrigued by New Orleans’ rotations last night. Marshall emerged as a relevant player a few weeks ago when the Pelicans were short-handed and he has maintained his spot in the rotation with Josh Hart sidelined and J.J. Redick no longer on the team. New Orleans closed both halves (prior to garbage time) yesterday with a small lineup that included Marshall instead of one of their centers. There is no guarantee they use the same rotation, and it is also possible that James Johnson is the beneficiary instead of Marshall if they do, but there is at least a decent chance that we see another 28 or so minutes from Marshall. He is currently NBA DFS ownership projections is about 1 percent on DraftKings.
Caleb Martin ($3,000 DraftKings/$3,500 FanDuel) looks likely to go from playing 4.9 minutes in garbage time last game to playing as many minutes as he can handle tonight. Martin has actually been a reasonably productive fantasy producer this season with 0.80 DraftKings points per minute, so it is likely that he actually contributes during his time on the floor. The players that are missing from Charlotte’s lineup tonight combined for 91.3 minutes in their last game, so there are a lot of minutes to be picked up. Martin is capable of playing several positions and I expect him to play 30-plus minutes tonight against Detroit.
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”nba” date=”05/04/2021″ team=”hornets”]
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Brandon Ingram, Buddy Hield, Kent Bazemore, Caleb Martin
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Kevin Durant, Brandon Ingram, Buddy Hield, Luguentz Dort, Caleb Martin
Power Forward
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,700 DraftKings/$11,400 FanDuel) takes on the Nets in the game with the highest total on the slate. It’s been somewhat difficult to roster Antetokounmpo recently because he seems to always be on slates with Russell Westbrook or Nikola Jokic –– players who produce at the same rate but play more minutes. That isn’t the case tonight as the top end is relatively thin without Westbrook or Jokic and with Doncic in a difficult matchup. Giannis has averaged 1.67 DraftKings points per minute and 32.5 minute per game this season, but we typically see 34-plus minutes from him when the game is competitive. Tonight’s game only has a two point spread to go along with its 242 point total.
Zion Williamson ($9,900 DraftKings/$9,600 FanDuel) is similar to Butler in that I’ll be more than happy to roster him if he finds his way into my lineups, but I think it will be difficult for that to happen too often given his price tag and the makeup of the rest of the slate. Williamson has averaged 34.1 minutes per game over the last month and 1.31 DraftKings points per minute in 58 games with Brandon Ingram this season. He is also in a fast-paced game against the Warriors. He looks like a better option on FanDuel where there is a bigger gap between his salary and Giannis’s salary and he is less expensive than Durant.
Kevin Durant ($9,300 DraftKings/$10,300 SF FanDuel) played 39.9 minutes in regulation against the Bucks on Saturday, so it is safe to say that we don’t need to be worried about a minutes limit anymore. Durant has averaged 1.52 DraftKings points per minute this season with a 32.3 percent usage rate in 14 games alongside Irving without Harden. He is clearly underpriced on DraftKings and is a strong option on FanDuel as well.
Draymond Green ($7,100 DraftKings/$7,600 FanDuel) showed his ceiling against the Pelicans last night and he will get an opportunity to do so again. Green has produced 1.28 DraftKings points per minute in seven games without Oubre or James Wiseman and alongside Curry this season. In those games, Green has averaged 34.2 minutes with 10 points, 8.7 rebounds, 9.9 assists, 2.6 steals and 1.4 blocks. While players like Green can disappoint from time to time thanks to their low usage rate, the abundance of peripherals typically gives them a relatively high floor, and he should be able to take advantage of the fast pace of this game in a variety of ways. Steven Adams is questionable for the Pelicans and if he sits the spot is even more favorable for Green as he probably will play a few extra minutes at center like he did last night.
Marvin Bagley ($5,000 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel) is one of the easiest plays that we have on this slate as he is still priced to play about 24 minutes. Bagley’s carrying the No. 1 ranking as far as value plays are concerned, according to the Awesemo NBA DFS projections. He was “limited” to 34 minutes against the Mavericks last game, so I will not be trusting Luke Walton anymore. Bagley has averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute with a 25.6 percent usage rate in 263 minutes without Fox on the floor this season.
Jalen McDaniels ($4,600 DraftKings/$3,800 FanDuel) played 26.6 minutes last game and is likely to play even more tonight. He has averaged 0.80 DraftKings points per minute this season and I expect that he starts in place of Bridges. He has averaged 30.7 minutes per game in 10 starts this season and he is likely to exceed that number tonight.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Durant, Marvin Bagley
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Zion Williamson, Isaiah Stewart, Marvin Bagley, Jalen McDaniels
Center
Richaun Holmes ($6,600 DraftKings/$6,600 FanDuel) only played 24.7 minutes in Sacramento’s last game because of foul trouble. We saw him get 30 minutes in the game before that, however, so I am not expecting his minutes to be limited tonight as long as he can avoid fouling. Holmes has been a productive fantasy contributor this season with 1.09 DraftKings points per minute. There isn’t much to be excited about at the top of the center position tonight, so I think it will be relatively easy to save some money and look to Holmes – who has an NBA DFS projection of almost 38 points tonight – as a mid-range option in a favorable matchup against the Thunder.
Isaiah Stewart ($6,300 DraftKings/$6,200 PF FanDuel) will get to play another game without Plumlee tonight. Stewart has averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute and 30.2 minutes per game in seven starts without Jerami Grant or Plumlee this season. In 10 overall starts, Stewart has produced 1.18 DraftKings points per minute in 28.7 minutes per game. Jahlil Okafor is expected to be available tonight as Stewart’s back-up, but I don’t think that is too concerning since it is unlikely that the Pistons would want Okafor to steal minutes from Stewart.
Bismack Biyombo ($3,000 DraftKings/$3,500 FanDuel) and Cody Zeller ($3,000 DraftKings/$3,700 FanDuel) have emerged as two of the more intriguing value options on tonight’s slate. Washington and Bridges are out for the Hornets, so there are a ton of frontcourt minutes available. My expectation is that we will see the 48 center minutes split between Biyombo, Zeller and, potentially, Vernon Carey. Zeller hasn’t played more than 17 minutes in a game since April 18th while Biyombo has played at least 20 minutes in four of his last six games. My assumption is that Biyombo will play more minutes tonight than Zeller, but Zeller is the better fantasy producer with 1.06 DraftKings points per minute to Biyombo’s 0.77 DraftKings points per minute this season. It wouldn’t be shocking if Carey starts since we saw him start a couple of games the last time that Washington was out and/or first returning from injury. He played 35 minutes in his first start, but then played 7, 3 and 15 minutes in his next three. This is a very volatile situation because all three centers are minimum salary and at least one of them is likely to be a strong value.
I think the easiest way to sum it up is to consider the potential starters. I think that Biyombo and Carey are more likely to start than Zeller. If Biyombo starts, he will be the “safest” while I assume that Carey probably doesn’t play enough minutes to be a viable option and Zeller is worth a shot in GPPs given his per-minute production. If Carey starts, I think that he is still risky but would be worth a look in tournaments since the Hornets have an incentive to see what he can do with his minutes. Biyombo would probably be the second center and would be a decent value, though not as safe as if he were starting. Zeller would be very risky. If Zeller starts, just put him in every lineup.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Richaun Holmes, Isaiah Stewart, Hornets’ center (see summary above)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Richaun Holmes, Hornets’ center (see summary above)
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