NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Expert Data, Analysis & Strategy

This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Be sure to catch the Awesemo NBA Daily Fantasy Strategy Show every morning on our Awesemo YouTube Channel to find the best NBA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel!

I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and I from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.

As always, if you have any questions after reading the article, feel free to DM me in Slack.

NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | April 26

Point Guard

Luka Doncic ($11,100 DraftKings/$11,500 FanDuel) is questionable for tonight’s game against the Kings. Assuming that he is able to play, he should have plenty of success in this matchup. Sacramento is on the second half of a back-to-back and they are 29th in defensive rating over the last month. They have also played at the league’s eighth-fastest pace over that time. Kristaps Porzingis is questionable tonight as well. In 37 games alongside Porzingis this season, Doncic has averaged 1.61 DraftKings points per minute while he has averaged 1.49 DraftKings points per minute in 17 games played without Porzingis. He is a strong NBA DFS pick either way, but beware that his ownership typically increases (but he’s under 5% currently in our NBA DFS ownership projections) if Porzingis is out even though his performances without Porzingis doesn’t suggest that it should.

Russell Westbrook ($10,900 DraftKings/$11,200 FanDuel) had his first disappointing game in a long time last night as he only scored about 40 DraftKings points against Cleveland. That isn’t a concern at all going forward, however, as nothing changed that suggests he won’t continue to produce fantasy points at a high rate. The biggest surprise from last night’s game was that Westbrook only grabbed five rebounds. Over his last 10 games, his next-lowest total is 11 rebounds. Over the last month, Westbrook is third in the NBA in total rebounds per game so there is no reason to think last night was anything other than a fluke. There is also a chance that Bradley Beal sits tonight as he injured his leg at the end of last night’s game and said during his postgame interview that he hadn’t been able to walk off the pain and he wasn’t sure how it would feel today. If Beal sits, Westbrook becomes an even bigger priority as he has averaged 1.74 DraftKings points per minute in eight games without Beal this season compared to 1.55 DraftKings points per minute with Beal active.

Note: Westbrook is listed as questionable and Beal is not on the injury report.

Darius Garland ($7,500 DraftKings/$7,600 FanDuel) played 39.7 minutes last night with Collin Sexton sidelined. I haven’t seen an update on Sexton for tonight’s game, but he was dealing with a concussion so it seems like there is a good chance that he won’t be able to play. If that is the case, Garland will project as a strong mid-range option as we can expect another 38 to 40 minutes. He has played a total of 526 minutes without Sexton or Andre Drummond on the floor this season and has produced 1.03 DraftKings points per minute with a 26.5 percent usage rate and 34.3 percent assist rate.

Note: Sexton is out tonight.

Mike Conley ($7,400 DraftKings/$7,100 FanDuel) faces the Timberwolves for the second straight game. Utah continues to have extremely favorable matchup with Donovan Mitchell sidelined, so Conley remains a priority tonight. Minnesota has been one of the fastest teams and least efficient defenses all season long and Conley’s rates increase with Mitchell absent. In six games without Mitchell, Conley has averaged 1.35 DraftKings points per minute with a 26.8 percent usage rate and 47.3 percent assist rate. About half of his minutes will come without Mitchell or Jordan Clarkson on the floor. He has averaged 1.32 DraftKings points per minute with a 30.5 percent usage rate and 47.2 percent assist rate without either of them on the floor this season, which is why we see the substantial increase in Conley’s numbers with Mitchell sidelined.

Dejounte Murray ($7,100 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel) faces the Wizards tonight. Washington has been a great matchup all season as they are the fastest team in the league. For most of the season they have struggled defensively as well, though they are fourth in defensive rating over the last month. Regardless of defensive efficiency, the extra possessions are likely to allow Murray to produce at an above-average rate tonight. Murray has averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute and 32.1 minutes per game in 30 games without LaMarcus Aldridge and with DeMar DeRozan this season.

Reggie Jackson ($5,800 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel) played about 31 minutes last game and has averaged 32.8 minutes per game in seven starts without Kawhi Leonard and with Paul George this season. In those games, Jackson has a 20.4 percent usage rate and 22.4 percent assist rate and has produced 0.95 DraftKings points per minute. He faces the New Orleans Pelicans tonight, who are seventh in pace and 15th in defensive rating over the last month.

Derrick Rose ($5,200 DraftKings/$5,800 FanDuel) has an unappealing matchup against the Phoenix Suns. He is likely to see increased playing time, however, because Alec Burks is still out for the Knicks. Rose has averaged 29.8 minutes per game in five games without Burks and with Elfrid Payton this season compared to 23.5 minutes per game in 17 games with both players active. Since joining the Knicks, Rose has averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute with a 23.9 percent usage rate and 25.5 percent assist rate.

Delon Wright ($5,000 DraftKings/$5,900 FanDuel) played about 27 minutes last night and is likely to continue to see substantial minutes with De’Aaron Fox sidelined. Wright has only averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute in 15 games with the Kings and is facing an extremely slow Dallas team so we should keep our expectations in check, but he is a viable option in tournaments since he is likely to play 26 to 28 minutes in most games without Fox and has the potential for more minutes when he is playing well.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Luka Doncic (Q), Russell Westbrook (Q), Mike Conley, Darius Garland, Derrick Rose

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Luka Doncic, Russell Westbrook, Mike Conley, Darius Garland, Dejounte Murray

Latest NBA DFS Content

Shooting Guard

Paul George ($9,600 DraftKings/$10,000 FanDuel) takes on the New Orleans Pelicans tonight and he will once again be playing without Kawhi Leonard. George has averaged 1.43 DraftKings points per minute in nine games without Leonard this season. He has a 38.4 percent usage rate and 27.4 percent assist rate over 34.5 minutes per game in those games.

Jordan Clarkson ($6,800 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel) has averaged 32 minutes per game and 1.10 DraftKings points per minute in seven games without Mitchell this season. In those games, Clarkson has a 30.9 percent usage rate, 9 percent rebounding rate and 9.5 percent assist rate. He is more favorably priced on FanDuel than DraftKings, but he offers plenty of upside on either site in a good matchup against the Timberwolves. He’s currently sitting a tick under 37 points in the Awesemo NBA DFS projections tonight.

Tyrese Haliburton ($6,800 DraftKings/$6,100 FanDuel) started in place of De’Aaron Fox last night and played 37.5 minutes against the Warriors. We probably won’t see Haliburton play 37 to 38 minutes every night, but he is likely to at least give us 34 minutes and he obviously has the upside for more. Haliburton has averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute overall this season and 1.10 DraftKings points per minute in 658 minutes without Fox on the floor.

D’Angelo Russell ($6,400 DraftKings/$6,300 FanDuel) has a tough matchup against the Utah Jazz, but his salary isn’t rising even though his playing time is. Russell played about 29 minutes two games ago and followed it up with 30.5 minutes against the Jazz on Saturday. It appears that Russell is close to full strength after a prolonged absence. He has averaged 1.30 DraftKings points per minute in nine games without Malik Beasley and with Karl-Anthony Towns this season and 1.20 DraftKings points per minute in 13 total games played alongside Towns.

Terance Mann ($4,800 DraftKings/$5,100 FanDuel) has averaged 31.1 minutes per game in three starts alongside George without Leonard this season. He has only averaged 0.61 DraftKings points per minute with an 11.5 percent usage rate in those starts. In nine total games without Leonard and with George active, Mann has also only averaged 0.61 DraftKings points per minute with an 11.8 percent usage rate. We can’t be confident in his per-minute production, but he should get enough minutes tonight with Leonard and Luke Kennard out to offer some upside at his salary despite the low per-minute production.

Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk ($3,600 DraftKings/$4,500 FanDuel) started and played 36.2 minutes against the Pacers two games ago with Luguentz Dort out. Then, Dort returned to the lineup and Mykhailiuk played about 22 minutes off the bench. Dort is out tonight, so it is likely that Mykhailiuk will return to the starting lineup. Mykhailiuk has started nine games without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Dort since joining Oklahoma City. In those games, he has averaged 0.86 DraftKings points per minute and 28.3 minutes per game. He has a difficult matchup against the 76ers, but he stands out as a strong value at near minimum salary on DraftKings.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Paul George, Tyrese Haliburton, D’Angelo Russell, Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Paul George, D’Angelo Russell, Tyrese Haliburton, Jordan Clarkson

Small Forward

Jimmy Butler ($9,500 DraftKings/$9,300 FanDuel) is one of several options at the small forward position that are much stronger plays on FanDuel than DraftKings as a result of softer pricing and less roster flexibility. Butler has averaged 1.33 DraftKings points per minute with a 26.5 percent usage rate and 35.3 percent assist rate in 40 games played alongside Bam Adebayo this season. He has averaged 33.8 minutes per game in those games. The Bulls are 24th in pace and 23rd in defensive rating over the last month so, while the pace isn’t appealing, Chicago has allowed an above-average number of points per 100 possessions and Butler can take advantage in a variety of ways.

Brandon Ingram ($8,900 DraftKings/$8,100 FanDuel) will be difficult to roster on DraftKings but looks like a strong option on FanDuel. Ingram has averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute and 34.3 minutes per game in 42 games played with Lonzo Ball and Zion Williamson active this season. The Clippers are 25th in pace and sixth in defensive rating over the last month. The absences of Leonard and Patrick Beverley should hurt the Clippers on the defensive end, however, and the Pelicans have a healthy 114 point implied total.

Michael Porter ($8,500 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel) is another option that is extremely expensive on DraftKings but available at a large discount on FanDuel. Porter is coming off a monster game his last time out as he dropped 39 actual points on the Houston Rockets. Memphis is a more difficult matchup than Houston, but they have still been a below-average defense and have played at a top 10 pace over the last month. In 12 total games without Jamal Murray, Porter has now averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute and 34.9 minutes per game. He could be a great GPP option, has he hasn’t yet breached 5% in the Awesemo NBA DFS ownership projections.

Joe Ingles ($6,500 DraftKings/$6,400 FanDuel) has averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute and 32.9 minutes per game in seven games without Mitchell this season. His salary is climbing, but he offers value at a weak small forward position tonight. He has a 19.2 percent usage rate and 29.1 percent assist rate in his games without Mitchell.

R.J. Barrett ($6,700 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel) may not be an efficient fantasy producer, but he plays huge minutes every night for the Knicks. His playing time has increased with Burks out as well. Barrett has averaged 38.1 minutes per game in 17 games without Burks this season compared to 33 minutes per game in 44 games with Burks active. He has only produced 0.89 DraftKings points per minute in the games without Burks so we haven’t seen his production increase, but there aren’t many similarly priced players that offer 38 minutes per game.

Cedi Osman ($3,800 DraftKings/$3,500 FanDuel) started last night in place of Sexton and played 37.2 minutes against the Wizards. We may not see 37 minutes again but, at close to minimum salary, we don’t need to. Osman has averaged 0.82 DraftKings points per minute in 468 minutes without Drummond or Sexton on the floor this season and projects as one of the best point-per-dollar values if he starts again tonight.

Note: Larry Nance Jr. has a broken thumb, which should make Osman’s playing time even more secure.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Joe Ingles, Cedi Osman

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Jimmy Butler, Brandon Ingram, Michael Porter, Joe Ingles, Cedi Osman

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Power Forward

Zion Williamson ($10,100 DraftKings/$9,700 FanDuel) is difficult to prioritize at his price point, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have a high enough ceiling to consider. In 42 games played with Ball and Ingram active this season, Williamson has averaged 1.29 DraftKings points per minute and 32.7 minutes per game with a 29.2 percent usage rate, 12.0 percent rebounding rate and 17.6 percent assist rate. In his last 15 games with Ball and Ingram active, his rates have increased across the board, however. He has a 31.1 percent usage rate, 13.0 percent rebounding rate and 19.2 percent assist rate while averaging 1.36 DraftKings points per minute. He is expensive, but the power forward position is relatively weak and he is one of the top projected options.

Julius Randle ($9,900 DraftKings/$10,100 FanDuel) is similar to Williamson. It’s tough to single him out as one of the first guys into a lineup, but he is a strong play if you can find a way to fit him in. He leads the NBA with 38.8 minutes per game over the last month and he has averaged 1.31 DraftKings points per minute in those games. Overall this season, Randle has played 24 games with Derrick Rose active and he has averaged 1.33 DraftKings points per minute with a 31.0 percent usage rate, 14.4 percent rebounding rate and 24.9 percent assist rate.

Harrison Barnes ($7,700 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel) is second in the NBA with 37.7 minutes per game over the last month. He is likely to take on an increased scoring role with De’Aaron Fox sidelined as well. Barnes has played 355 minutes without Fox or Marvin Bagley on the floor this season and he has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute with a 20.2 percent usage rate and 14.7 percent assist rate. By comparison, Barnes has averaged 0.86 DraftKings points per minute with a 16.4 percent usage rate and 12.5 percent assist rate in 1,613 minutes alongside Fox. While the increase in per-minute production is relatively small, the increase in usage rate and assist rate suggests that Barnes’ ceiling is higher with Fox sidelined (as we would expect). The problem for Barnes is that his salary has already increased on DraftKings and FanDuel and he is in a pace-down spot against the Mavericks. The power forward position is relatively weak, particularly in the mid-range, however so Barnes offers some value as the final piece to a lineup.

Tobias Harris ($7,600 DraftKings/$7,200 FanDuel) is questionable tonight against the Thunder. Harris returned to the Sixers’ lineup and played about 30 and 26 minutes in a pair of losses to the Bucks. He lost minutes to garbage time in both games, so my assumption is that he can play his normal 33 to 35 minutes in competitive games. Most of the Sixers’ main players are questionable, so there are a lot of moving parts here. He has averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute in 28 games with Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid active this season, which would make him a strong option tonight. If Simmons and/or Embiid sit, Harris becomes a stronger option as he has averaged 1.33 DraftKings points per minute in eight games without Simmons and 1.28 DraftKings points per minute in 18 games without Embiid this season.

Marcus Morris ($5,900 DraftKings/$6,100 FanDuel) has started five games without Leonard and with George this season. In those games, Morris has averaged 1 DraftKings point per minute and 29.5 minutes per game. If tonight’s game with the Pelicans is competitive, it is likely that we see Morris approach 32 minutes. He is reasonably priced for his increased role without Leonard in a favorable matchup against the Pelicans.

Isaiah Roby ($5,000 DraftKings/$4,100 FanDuel) has a tough matchup against the 76ers — though the Sixers may be short-handed as most of their rotation is currently listed as questionable. Regardless of the matchup, Roby offers a low floor and high ceiling for his price tag. He has been coming off the bench for the Thunder, but he has played about 28 minutes in each of his last two games. The Moses Brown experiment hasn’t been going well recently, and it has translated to more minutes for Roby. The risk is that, if Brown is playing well, he could certainly take back some minutes tonight. The seemingly more likely scenario, however, is that Roby continues to see increased minutes off the bench. He has averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute this season and, if we get 26 to 28 minutes, he is likely to be a decent value option — especially on FanDuel.

Cameron Johnson ($4,300 DraftKings, $4,100 SF FanDuel) started in place of Jae Crowder and played 33.2 minutes yesterday after playing about 34 minutes in Crowder’s place in the previous game. Crowder is out again tonight and I expect that we see another 33 to 34 minutes for Johnson. He has averaged 0.78 DraftKings points per minute overall this season and 0.61 DraftKings points per minute in 11 starts. While it makes sense for his production to decrease as a starter, I expect that his per-minute production settles closer to about 0.7 DraftKings points per minute as the sample size increases.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Julius Randle, Tobias Harris (Q), Marcus Morris, Cameron Johnson

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Zion Williamson, Tobias Harris (Q), Harrison Barnes, Marcus Morris, Isaiah Roby

Center

Nikola Jokic ($11,000 DraftKings/$11,400 FanDuel) is always a top option at center. He has averaged 1.65 DraftKings points per minute with a 29.1 percent usage rate, 17.6 percent rebounding rate and 41.2 percent assist rate in 60 total games this season. Murray has missed 12 of those games. In the games without Murray, Jokic has averaged 1.75 DraftKings points per minute with a 31.4 percent usage rate, 16.9 percent rebounding rate and 49.8 percent assist rate.

Joel Embiid ($10,200 DraftKings/$10,700 FanDuel) was a late scratch on Saturday and he is listed as questionable for tonight’s game. If he is able to play, he is likely to dominate a weak Oklahoma City frontcourt. Embiid has averaged 1.66 DraftKings points per minute overall this season. If he is able to play and either of Simmons or Harris are not, then he projects as an even stronger option. Embiid has produced 1.85 DraftKings points per minute in eight games without Simmons and 1.90 DraftKings points per minute in nine games without Harris.

Rudy Gobert ($8,600 DraftKings/$8,100 FanDuel) played 36.1 minutes against the Timberwolves on Saturday and he is likely to play extended minutes again tonight as long as the game is competitive. Gobert has typically played 30 to 32 minutes per game this season, but he will probably be on the floor for most minutes that Towns is on the floor tonight. Towns normally plays 35 to 37 minutes, which is why I expect a couple more minutes than usual for Gobert as long as this game is close. Gobert has averaged 1.29 DraftKings points per minute overall this season and 1.32 DraftKings points per minute in six games without Mitchell.

Andre Drummond ($7,400 DraftKings/$6,900 FanDuel) hasn’t been nearly as productive with the Lakers as he was with the Cavaliers earlier this season and now he has to contend with Anthony Davis in his frontcourt. Drummond has produced 1.20 DraftKings points per minute in nine games with the Lakers. His playing time is trending up, however, and Montrezl Harrell was a DNP-CD last game. Drummond has played 30, 28, 31 and 30 minutes in his last four games and it seems safe to expect around 30 minutes again tonight against Orlando.

Jarrett Allen ($7,000 DraftKings/$5,700 FanDuel) scored a career high 27 points against the Wizards last night in 34.3 minutes. Tonight, Cleveland’s frontcourt is short-handed as Nance has a broken thumb and Isaiah Hartenstein has been ruled out with a concussion. It is likely that we see another 34 minutes or so from Allen, who has averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute in 361 minutes without Drummond or Sexton on the floor this season.

Deandre Ayton ($6,600 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel) has an unappealing matchup against the Knicks, who are third in defensive rating and 28th in pace over the last month. The reason that I am mentioning Ayton is that Dario Saric is out tonight. Ayton played 32.8 minutes without Saric yesterday and he has averaged 33.1 minutes per game in 19 games without Saric this season. In 41 games with Saric, Ayton has only averaged 29.6 minutes per game. Ayton has averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute in 55 games with Chris Paul and Devin Booker both active this season.

Mason Plumlee ($5,600 DraftKings/$5,800 FanDuel) is risky because the Pistons don’t really have an incentive to play him big minutes. That said, he has played 32 and 29 minutes in his last two games. Based on his recent NBA DFS ownership at inexpensive price tags, it seems like people are acknowledging the risk but not accounting for Plumlee’s upside. Plumlee has averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute and 27.1 minutes per game in 28 games without Derrick Rose or Blake Griffin and with Jerami Grant this season. He is far from a “must play” but he does offer a high ceiling at a cheap price tag in tournaments.

Ivica Zubac ($5,500 DraftKings/$5,400 FanDuel) has disappointed me more than he has helped me this season, but he remains affordably priced with Serge Ibaka sidelined. Zubac has averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute and 26.3 minutes per game in six starts without Leonard and with George this season. We could see a few extra minutes from Zubac tonight as well since the Pelicans have a traditional center in Steven Adams and Zion Williamson primarily scores in the paint.

Daniel Gafford ($3,900 DraftKings/$5,100 FanDuel) played 26.8 minutes off the bench for Washington last night. Over his last three games, he has played about 24, 15 and 27 minutes. Gafford is always risky because Scott Brooks’ center rotations are unpredictable, but there is a very high ceiling here — especially on DraftKings. Gafford has averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute overall this season and 1.39 DraftKings points per minute in 11 games since joining Washington. There are a couple of pieces of injury news to pay attention to here as well. First, Robin Lopez is questionable. If Lopez sits, it becomes much more likely that we see substantial minutes for Gafford. Second, Westbrook is questionable. If Westbrook sits, we could see more rebound chances for Gafford but we would also probably see his scoring drop off as he is a frequent beneficiary of Westbrook’s lobs.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid (Q), Rudy Gobert

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, Rudy Gobert, Jarrett Allen

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Author

Adam Scherer

Adam "ShipMyMoney" Scherer has been playing and analyzing DFS full-time since quitting law school in 2016. He has qualified for the 2016 FanDuel MLB Playboy Championship, the 2016 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship (3x) and the 2019 DraftKings Fantasy Basketball World Championship. You can find him on Twitter at @ShipMyMoneyDFS or by emailing [email protected].