NBA DFS Picks, Fades & Booms Today: Jayson Tatum Among Frauds

After a small slate last night, the Association returns with a massive 14-game slate tonight. With no games tomorrow and a six-game Christmas slate on Sunday, many of these teams who play tonight will not play until next Monday. Nonetheless, we’re here to focus on NBA DFS picks today — such as fades, booms, busts and a certain Jayson Tatum move you might want to make.

There is going to be so much news to follow throughout the day so make sure to follow Stokastic’s starting lineups page to see who is in and out of the lineup tonight. This article features three ‘boom’ candidates and one bust/fade option, driven by Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool. Let’s look at some of the best NBA DFS picks for the slate.

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Boom/Bust NBA DFS Picks & Projections Today

NBA DFS Play: Nikola Jokic: $12,000 DraftKings/$12,200 FanDuel

47.3% DraftKings Boom/36.1% FanDuel Boom

This large 14-game slate is flooded with pay-up options to choose from. There are 13 healthy players priced at $10,000 or higher and three at $12,000 or higher on DraftKings. One of those super expensive options is Nikola Jokic who is coming off of back-to-back massive triple-doubles. Over the last two games, Jokic is averaging 26.5 points, 20 rebounds, 11.5 assists, and two steals per game. He has the second-highest boom percentage on both DraftKings and FanDuel and is the clear-cut best pay-up option on the slate.

Despite being the third-most expensive player on DraftKings, Jokic has the highest fantasy score in our Stokastic projections. Michael Porter Jr. is finally expected to play tonight, while Jamal Murray is listed as questionable. Both playing hurt Jokic’s ceiling, but it is tough to see either playing full minutes if they are healthy tonight. This is a great matchup for Jokic as the Trail Blazers are allowing 51.8 points per game in the paint this season, which ranks as the eighth-highest in the league. In his two meetings against the Trail Blazers, Jokic is averaging 21 points, 9.5 rebounds, and nine assists per game. Another great spot for Jokic tonight.

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NBA DFS Play: Chris Paul: $8,300 DraftKings/$7,900 FanDuel

27.6% DraftKings Boom/33.6% FanDuel Boom

Even when the Suns are struggling, they are still one of the best home teams in the league. They have a 14-4 record at home this season as they welcome in the Grizzlies tonight as they are two-point home underdogs. The Suns will be playing without Devin Booker and Cameron Payne once again as Chris Paul looks like a very strong mid-range play. Paul looks much better on FanDuel where he has the third-highest boom percentage on the slate. He ranks just outside the top 10 on DraftKings, but is a great play on both sites without Booker.

In four games without Booker this season, Paul has increased his scoring by +4.4 points per game and his usage rate climbs to 22.6% from 16.6%. The 37-year old veteran continues to be one of the best passers in the league as he ranks fourth in assists with 9.1 per game. His 1.9 turnovers per game is a career-low as he has a very impressive 4.8-to-1 assists to turnover ratio this season. This is a pace-up spot for Paul who has scored over 50 DraftKings points in two of his last four games and will get plenty of opportunity in this matchup for a double-double.

NBA DFS Play: Daniel Gafford: $4,800 DraftKings/$5,300 FanDuel

50.1% DraftKings Boom/43.7% FanDuel Boom

This pick is a bit of a risk without knowing the status of Kristaps Porzingis. He has missed the last two games due to an illness as this is a back-to-back for the Wizards. If Porzingis is out for a third-straight game, Daniel Gafford looks fantastic yet again. Gafford has started in both games without Porzingis and has shot 11 of 15 from the field averaging 12.5 points per game. He has the highest boom percentage by far on both DraftKings and FanDuel and he still remains at a nice salary on both sites.

In our Stokastic projections, Gafford also has the best value on both sites. If for some reason Porzingis plays and Gafford does not start, look to Markelle Fultz as a value option as he ranks second in our projections on both sites. The Kings are allowing 53.5 points per game in the paint this season, which ranks as the fourth-highest in the league. Gafford could be a nice play off the bench too, but his salary has risen where he almost needs to play 20+ minutes to return value. We have Gafford projected for 28.8 minutes, which makes him an elite value.

NBA DFS Fade: Jayson Tatum: $10,800 DraftKings/$11,200 FanDuel

43.0% DraftKings Bust/60.6% FanDuel Bust

The Boston Celtics have lost three-straight home games, but still hold the second-best record in the league at 22-10. Despite their recent struggles Jayson Tatum has scored over 40 points in two out of those last three games. He will get a chance to add to those high point totals tonight, but at a salary that is a little too high, especially on FanDuel. Tatum is the fifth-most expensive player on FanDuel, but has the 10th-highest fantasy score in our Stokastic projections. Pair that with a 60.6% bust percentage and it will be tough to prioritize Tatum on FanDuel tonight.

Jayson Tatum is currently one of the leaders in the MVP race as he continues to increase his scoring every single season. He is averaging a career-high 30.6 points per game. The Celtics are nine-point favorites against the Timberwolves who have the fifth-fastest pace in the league. However, they do rank 12th in defensive rating as they have improved significantly with Rudy Gobert patrolling the paint. In our NBA DFS Rankings, Tatum has an A grade and C value as one of three players with that status on FanDuel. With so many pay-up options it is going to be tough to prioritize Jayson Tatum on either site as he has a 2% or lower optimal percentage.