The NFL Week 16 main slate consists of 10 games and will take place Saturday, with Christmas falling on Sunday. Using Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool, each player is given a leverage score that is based on that player’s ownership and ceiling. A low projected ownership combined with a high ceiling means a higher leverage score. This column will dive into some of the top NFL DFS leverage plays for the main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Week 16 NFL DFS Leverage Plays
Daniel Jones
Stokastic NFL Optimizer Leverage Score Ranks: DraftKings 6th, FanDuel: 19th
With the New York Giants facing the Minnesota Vikings this weekend, Daniel Jones is one of the best cheap gambles at quarterback for the DFS leverage plays. On top of owning a strong 4:1 touchdown to interception ratio this season, Jones has been very active as a rusher, fifth in carries per game (7.6) and fourth in red zone rushes among quarterbacks (23). The Minnesota defense is giving up the second most yards per pass this season (7.5) and this game’s total is the second highest on the slate (48 points), which is the highest total the Giants have competed in this season. New York boasts an implied team total of 22 points, which is the second largest implied team total it has seen this season. When playing with an implied team total of at least 20 points this season, Jones has responded with 19.1 DraftKings PPG (eight games), including two over 29 DraftKings points. For both DraftKings and FanDuel, the quarterback is expected to come with single-digit ownership, according to Stokastic projections. As for players to stack with Jones, wide receiver Darius Slayton is the best option. Since losing Wan’Dale Robinson (knee) for the season, Slayton has led the Giants with a 20.2% target share over the past four weeks, including six targets greater than 20 yards.
Treylon Burks
Stokastic NFL Optimizer Leverage Score Ranks: DraftKings: 7th, FanDuel: 8th
After missing two games with a concussion, Treylon Burks will return for the Tennessee Titans this week and is in an elite spot against the Houston Texans. Houston is the second worst graded defense by Pro Football Focus this season and has allowed the sixth most yards per pass (7.1). So far during his rookie season, Burks has been the Titans’ clear No. 1 receiver, garnering a target on 25% of routes.
Notably, he has seen nine targets over 20 yards and three red zone targets playing only eight games. Burks is vastly underpriced for his compelling role and is an excellent value to attack in GPPs, with Stokastic slating him for single-digit ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Update: Ryan Tannehill (ankle) has been ruled out for Saturday’s matchup vs. the Texans. Malik Willis will start at quarterback, significantly hurting Burks’ appeal. In his two full starts this season, Willis has barely been allowed to throw the ball, averaging a modest 13 pass attempts per game. However, this news further solidifies Derrick Henry – who was a featured pick from the NFL DFS First Look from earlier this week – as one of the best plays on the board, as the Titans should rely on their running game even more so than usual Tannehill sidelined.Â
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Stokastic NFL Optimizer Leverage Score Ranks: DraftKings: 40th, FanDuel: 65th
At 29.5 points, the Kansas City Chiefs carry the highest implied team total on the slate by over three points, and Smith-Schuster is an excellent way to attack their offense. Only trailing Travis Kelce, Smith-Schuster ranks second on the Chiefs in target share this season (18.7%), including 14 red zone targets. Smith-Schuster has double-digit targets in back-to-back games and is facing a Seattle Seahawks defense that is the ninth worst graded unit by PFF.
Smith-Schuster has provided at least 17 DraftKings points in five of his past eight starts and is one of the best contrarian options on the board, with Stokastic projecting him for single-digit ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Particularly, double stacking Patrick Mahomes with Smith-Schuster and Kelce in the same lineup has a ton of appeal this weekend and is a strategy very few DFS players will consider. Over the past two weeks, fewer than 1% of the lineups in the DraftKings Millionaire Maker contest have featured all three of Mahomes, Kelce and Smith-Schuster.
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