NBA Player Props: No One Can Stop Domantas Sabonis (February 5)

Today’s NBA player props slate are riskier, but that doesn’t mean profits are out of reach. Make sure you’re maximizing your profits by using NBA Bet Pro, which is designed to help you find the leverage points in the lines. And with a one-week free trial of NBA Bet Pro, you can get an even better edge. Now, let’s dive into the top 5 NBA player props on DraftKings for Sunday, Feb. 5.

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Today’s Top NBA Player Props | Feb. 5

5. Domantas Sabonis Over 12.5 Rebounds (-105)

The NBA’s leading rebounder is getting a line to match that status, bumping up his league-high 12.4 season average a tenth of a board. And though this is lofty, Sabonis has done fairly well with exceeding this line, hitting the over in six of his last 11. With New Orleans down Zion Williamson and Jonas Valanciunas, Sabonis should be able to have a field day against a depleted front line, and NBA Bet Pro is subsequently projecting him for 13.8 rebounds a 54% win expectancy for the over.

4. Michael Porter Jr. Over 4.5 Rebounds (-140)

This line is a full rebound below Porter’s season average. Granted, he has not been lighting it up on the glass since returning from a three-game absence (3.5 per game), but the opposing Timberwolves may be without Rudy Gobert and Kyle Anderson, who combine to average 12.4 rebounds a game. If they miss, that is a whole lot of rebound production that could be up in the air. But even with NBA Bet Pro projecting them playing, Porter is easily clearing this over with a projection of 5.9 rebounds and a 62% expected win rate.

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3. Brandon Ingram Under 5.5 Assists (-150)

With Zion Williamson still out, Ingram should have the ball more, but he also loses the guy who would be the primary recipient of Ingram’s playmaking. Ingram has hit this under in three of five games since returning from injury, and on the whole season he is 13-for-20 on the under. Instead, Stokastic projects C.J. McCollum to lead the team in assists, with Ingram slipping to a projection of 4.1 and a 65% win rate for under 5.5.

2. Andrew Nembhard Over 1.5 3-Pointers (+205)

This is far and away the riskiest bet in the top 5, earning just a 37% expected win rate from NBA Bet Pro. However, the huge plus money makes this one of the highest-EV bets on the board, just a tick behind the No. 1 play of the day. Tyrese Haliburton being back cuts into Nembhard’s production a bit — he was regularly getting up five 3’s each game while Haliburton was out — but Nembhard’s decent volume and efficiency from deep still make this a worthwhile wager. Stokastic is projecting him for over 30 minutes and 1.6 3’s today.

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1. Kevin Huerter Over 2.5 3-Pointers (+13)

With no De’Aaron Fox, it seems likely that the Kings will look Huerter’s way a bit more. Stokastic projects him for the third-most minutes on Sacramento (33.2), and Huerter put up seven 3’s last game with Fox out. Now, he only made one of the seven, but Huerter is shooting 40.2% from 3 this year. At that rate with the same volume as last game, Huerter would make 2.8 3’s on average. But NBA Bet Pro projects him even higher than, having him for 3.2 2’s. This is also a riskier wager (50% win expectancy), but no prop on the board even touches this one’s sEV.

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Author

Sam Smith

Sam Smith is a writer and editor with Stokastic and OddsShopper. He has been immersed in the world of professional sports data since 2015, while also writing extensively on the NFL for a multitude of blogs and websites. With Stokastic, Sam looks to blend his sports and editorial expertise with Stokastic's data to bring you the best fantasy information possible.