There is just one event left on the schedule before the final major championship of the season and it will take place in Scotland. The Genesis Scottish Open has been around for a while (and a mainstay on the DP World Tour schedule), but this will mark only its second season as a full-field, elevated event on the PGA Tour. The venture between the two Tours means that the top 75 players from both the FedEx Cup standings and the DP World Tour’s order of merit will get to tee it up this week on the classic links setting of the Renaissance Club. Nonetheless, onto our 2023 Genesis Scottish Open DFS picks and preview.
The field this season will also be the best this event has ever hosted. All of the top PGA pros will be playing in 2023 with the exception of Jon Rahm who opted for an extra week of rest before the Open. That means Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and last year’s winner Xander Schauffele will all be in attendance.
Despite the event taking place over in Scotland on the links, this is an elevated field event and there is still a ton of big money at stake for DFS. There has never been a better time to check out the Stokastic PGA DFS projections, to get an edge. But before you do, make sure you keep reading as the full preview for the 2023 Genesis Scottish Open DFS picks is below.
2023 Genesis Scottish Open DFS Preview & Picks
The top 5 finishers at the John Deere Classic the week prior were as follows:
- 1st – Sepp Straka -21
- 2nd – Brendon Todd -19 / Alex Smalley -19
- 4th – Ludvig Aberg -18 / Adam Schenk -18
This week will be a huge change from the first month of the summer. Even if the course plays easier and the wind stays down, the Renaissance is a true links course that will require more than just hitting targets off the tee and firing at flags on soft greens. The rolling fairways, pot bunkers, and general openness of the course mean that players will have to get creative in how they approach this week.
In terms of who can thrive in Scotland, we can take a peak back to last season to see that the PGA pros really had no issue coming over and dominating. Cameron Tringale opened with a 61 despite relatively little links experience and Xander Schauffele was the class of the field from a tee-to-green perspective. Only six DP Tour regulars finished inside the top 20 last season and only one managed to finish inside the top 8: Jamie Donaldson.
That doesn’t mean you can’t take some shots with these European players as low-owned DFS plays in big fields (or potentially as longshot betting targets) but the majority of your time should still be on searching for the best value on the American side of the pond.
Genesis Scottish Open DFS Picks: Betting Trends
- Each of the past four winners had finished T17 or better in their start prior to winning the Scottish Open.
- Three of the last four winners had finished 2nd or better in their prior start.
Below are some of the top players in the field to watch given their recent form and course history:
- Rickie Fowler: Fowler is straight vibing after grabbing a win in Detroit. His Wimbledon attire alone is reason enough to bet him this week but he’s also a former winner of this event and terrific links player.
- Scottie Scheffler: An absolute top-5 machine at this point. You might as well just pencil him in for another. His iron game is unmatched.
- Alex Smalley: He deserves some love. Smalley’s iron game is one of the best on the PGA right now and he came ultra-close to hitting last week. Don’t be afraid to keep riding him just cause the time zone is different.
- Rasmus HØJGAARD: Won his national event last week. Ultra-talented and a player who should be helped by the open venue.
- Doug Ghim: Ghim is playing some very high-end golf right now. Tee to green he should be able to handle the links well and makes for a solid DFS value or matchup bet target.
Field Notes: Swede Ludvig Aberg is another player who could have been on the top 5 movers list this week. He got a sponsor’s invite into the field and is coming off his best week as a pro with a 4th-place finish at the Deere… The brother of Rasmus, Nicolai Hojgaard finally put together a good start in the States two weeks ago in Detroit, finishing 21st at the Rocket Mortgage. He’s another solid young player to watch out for here.
Genesis Scottish Open Past Winners and Winners Stats
2022: Xander Schauffele
- Lead-in: win/14/18 (was off the week prior, won in his previous PGA start)
- Stats for the week of win: SG: OTT 2.2/SG: APP 5.7/SG: ATG 2.4/SG: PUTT 2.2/SG: TTG 10.4
2021: Min Woo Lee
- Lead-in: 17/42/67 (played the week prior in Ireland)
2020: Aaron Rai
- Lead-in: 2/15/44 (played the week prior and finished 2nd)
The Genesis Scottish Open didn’t become a full-fledged PGA event until 2022, so the fields in the prior years didn’t have as much strength as 2022’s. One thing the last three winners at this event do have in common is that they were all coming off nice starts. Schauffele won on the PGA two weeks prior to winning the Scottish Open and both Lee and Rai posted great finishes the week prior in Ireland. Last year, Schauffele had a consistent week across all the stat categories but popped with his irons to gain 5.7 strokes on approach. Given the links setup, controlling the ball on approach will be crucial but also expect great putters and around-the-green specialists to flash this week if the weather stays calm.
Want to see who is trending as a strong play early? Check out Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections, which will be updated on Monday and throughout the week.
2023 Genesis Scottish Open Course Preview
The Renaissance Club: Par 71, 7293 yards
Greens: Fescue
Designer: Tom Doak
Similar Courses: Carnoustie, Royal St. George’s, Royal Portrush
The Scottish Open will be played at the Renaissance Club for the fifth year in a row this season. The Tom Doak design was constructed back in 2007 and fits just outside of Edinburgh where it sits close to a plethora of other, older links designs, making it a fantastic warmup venue regardless of where the Open is being played.
The Renaissance Club is a true links test and at just 7293 it has produced some lower winning scores in years past when the weather cooperated. Bernd Wiesberger won at 21 under par at this venue in 2019 and Min Woo Lee got to 18 under par and won in a playoff back in 2021. However, when the wind has gotten up this venue has played as tough as any Open venue on the rotation. Last year Cameron Tringale’s opening 61 was swept away by the winds, as he struggled to finish at 3 under and had to watch Schauffele grind out a win at just 7 under par.
Tringale’s opening 61 is a good example of what the players can do on this somewhat simple links test when the wind is down. There are four shorter par 5’s on the course which can allow for some eagle opportunities (again if the wind cooperates) and five par 3’s, some of which can be very troublesome in less-than-ideal conditions. Speaking of the par 3’s, three of them measure in at just over 200 yards, so there will be an advantage for good mid to long iron players and that was an area that Schauffele was excelling in when he won here last season. That advantage will only be dialed up for the solid ball-strikers if it’s windy as well.
Of course, the Renaissance offers the usual links-style test with firm fairways that players can run their ball down if they wish but also fescue and traps that will punish those who get too offline or too aggressive. Ultimately, this is an open, coastal course so looking at past Open Championship results from places like Carnoustie and Royal St. George’s makes some sense (Schauffele was top 5 at Carnoustie in 2018). And from the Staes, results from coastal venues like Pebble Beach and Torrey Pines matter to a degree as well.
Like all links courses, the weather this week will have a big say in how this plays. If it’s soft, expect more variance with high-end putters and short-iron players having a shot, but if the wind gets up, expect the elite tee-to-green players to thrive.
Key Stats: Strokes Gained:
2023 Genesis Scottish Open Recent Form Watch
Top Strokes Gained Approach (Last 50 Rounds)
- Scottie Scheffler
- Xander Schauffele
- Rickie Fowler
- Wyndham Clark
- Gary Woodland
Top Strokes Gained Tee to Green (Last 24 Rounds)
- Scottie Scheffler
- Rory McIlroy
- Rickie Fowler
- Patrick Cantlay
- Tommy Fleetwood
Par 3 efficiency (Last 50 rounds)
- Sam Burns
- Max Homa
- Rickie Fowler
- Scottie Scheffler
- Jordan L Smith
Par 3 efficiency 200-225 yards
- Rory McIlroy
- Thomas Detry
- Scottie Scheffler
- Byeong Hun An
- Joohyung Kim
2023 Genesis Scottish Open Classic Weather Update
Thursday morning: 55-60 F, winds 9-10 mph/ 0% chance of precipitation
Thursday afternoon: 60-65 F, winds 9-12 mph/ 5% chance of precipitation
Friday morning: 55-60 F, winds 3-7 mph/ 0% chance of precipitation
Friday afternoon: 60-65 F, winds 9-15 mph/ 20-40% chance of precipitation
You can expect people to be following the weather closely this week. As of now, windfinder has Thursday as mainly flat, with the afternoon winds perhaps rising a touch but not much. The advantage may come on Friday where the a.m. wave looks like they’ll get the calmest conditions of the week with the wind nearly gone until noon, when it rises up again. Expect this forecast to potentially change. Keep hitting refresh on windfinder up until lock.
2023 Genesis Scottish Open DFS Picks and Early Betting Targets
Tommy Fleetwood | BetMGM Outright
There is no need to get cute this week. Fleetwood is playing great golf and has proven himself to be one of the best links course specialists in the world. The Englishman is top 5 in strokes gained tee to green stats over the last 24 rounds of play and has two top-5 finishes at the Open Championship over the past five years — including one in Scotland at St. Andrews. The truth is Fleetwood’s more piercing style of ball flight is simply better suited for these kinds of venues where you don’t have to be able to hit the ball a mile in the air to dominate.
The betting market will likely be tight on him to open up, but players like Jason Day, Rickie Fowler, and Viktor Hovland have cashed their great form into wins at odds of 20-1 or worse in recent months. Fleetwood is well overdue for a first PGA Tour victory and even though this would come outside of the USA there is no reason why he won’t be going full throttle to get that monkey off his back this week. A runner-up at the Renaissance in 2020, he won’t be fazed by any weather concerns or the draw and looks like a player to jump on quickly once the full-field odds are released on Monday.
Byeong Hun An | BetMGM top 10/20
Given how random links golf can be, experience playing in these types of venues should be a big help this week. In a past life, Byeong Hun An was a European Tour regular and even won the Tour’s flagship event at Wentworth back in 2015. He’s played on and performed well on several links venues on the circuit in the past and may relish the chance to take on a less regular type of venue this week.
While An’s slumped a bit over his last few starts he showed signs of potentially bouncing back last week. His 51st at the Deere isn’t going to jump off the page but he gained strokes putting for the first time in over five starts and gained strokes on his approach in two of four rounds. These are good signs for An who has been solid off the tee nearly all year and also ranks fourth in around-the-green stats over the last 50 rounds.
That last point is key as the greens at the Renaissance do challenge players and a good short game will be needed to score on the par 5’s regardless of the weather. Given the elite field and his lack of results of late, there should be good numbers on him in the placement markets making him a good top-40/20/10 ladder candidate for this week’s event in Scotland.
