It is always important to survey the DFS landscape each week and determine potential building blocks, which are the core plays and the foundation for most lineup types. The popular options are rising to the top for good reason more often than not, but there also are overlooked plays at every position, usually only a couple names down the rankings list. In this post, we’ll be making our best NFL DFS Week 4 picks on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Stokastic provides a variety of tools for all DFS sports that can help sort through the large NFL feature slate player pool. These were utilized in coming up with the recommendations in this article and include, but are far from limited to the NFL DFS Top Stacks tool, player projections, the Boom/Bust tool, and of course the proprietary Lineup Generator which incorporates all the tools and date, including tournament field popularity and of course simulations of the slate and how that impacts the potential ROI for your lineups and those of the field.
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NFL DFS Week 4 Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel
This week there are 12 games on the Sunday featured slate. Early birds can get in on the London action with the Atlanta Falcons and Jacksonville Jaguars squaring off in Wembley Stadium at 9:30 a.m. ET. There are no significant weather concerns this week and every team is in action, with Week 5 bringing the first of the byes.
Best NFL DFS Week 4 Picks and Building Blocks: Quarterbacks
Justin Herbert (Chargers-Raiders): DraftKings ($7,800, 8.9%), FanDuel ($8,600, 7.5%)
Los Angeles is hosting Las Vegas as these two division-rivals prepare to do battle for the first time this season. Both teams are 1-2 on the year and falling to 1-3 has a dramatic impact on playoff probabilities. Last week Mike Williams was lost for the season with a knee injury and running back Austin Ekeler remains out once again.
This season, Justin Herbert is tied for third with pass attempts per game (40.3), yards (313.0) and his six aerial scores rank fourth. Somehow he is going to assume even more offensive responsibility in a cherry matchup against the Raiders who have the fourth worst passing DVOA in the league, have yet to make an interception and have allowed opposing signal-callers to have multi-touchdown games in each of their three tilts.
Josh Allen (Bills-Dolphins): DraftKings ($8,200, 8.2%), FanDuel ($9,000, 9.5%)
This matchup is the marquee one as we get to see the Buffalo defense against a Miami offense that just rattled of 70 points like it was nothing. Josh Allen sits atop the salary list on both DraftKings and FanDuel, just edging out Jalen Hurts, who also is worthy of our consideration.
Allen has a terrific blend of passing and rushing upside, particularly in the red zone. Though he does not have the same ground-game baseline as Hurts, or the aerial-attack as Herbert, his combination wins out when comparing this trio in isolation. The Miami defense did hold Herbert to 23 of 33 for 228 yards and a score in Week 1, but Herbert also ran one in. Mac Jones was shut down in Week 2 and while the Broncos ended up with 306 passing yards, most of that was in garbage time.
Buffalo should be employing a strategy that allows them to get an early lead and then use homefield advantage, along with their defense to contain Tua Tagovailoa, if that is even possible. This means featuring Allen early and often, to take the fight to the ‘Phins.
Best NFL DFS Week 4 Picks and Building Blocks: Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey (49ers-Cardinals): DraftKings ($9,200, 16.7%), FanDuel ($9,700, 20.5%)
We all know that Christian McCaffrey is the bucks-deluxe DFS option week in and week out. He is the most complete running back in the league, while also having a healthy helping of high value looks in the red zone. Including the postseason, McCaffrey has scored a rushing or receiving touchdown in his last 12 games with San Francisco with nine via the ground and three through the air.
The only concern is the ridiculous workload though when the 49ers played the visiting New York Giants on Thursday, even though McCaffery played on “only” 61% of the snaps, he still had 18 carries for 85 yards and a score, and he brought in all five targets for another 34 yards. Enjoy!
Javonte Williams (Broncos-Bears): DraftKings ($5,500, 14.1%), FanDuel ($5,800, 21.4%)
This week Javonte Williams is behind only Miles Sanders (groin) from a fantasy point per dollar perspective on DraftKings and on FanDuel, he narrowly is edging out McCaffrey as the most popular running back in the early projections. On the disaster scale there are catastrophes, absolute mayhem, whatever the hell is going on with Russell Wilson’s career over the last two seasons and then of course we have the j-e-t-s, jets, Jets, JETS and finally at the top Duh Bears.
Now to be fair to Wilson, he is going to be in the Hall of Fame as soon as he is eligible, and the Denver franchise has had years of sustained success both in the postseason and with their defense. Chicago on the other hand, well this organization just keeps finding new and inventive ways of destroying their fanbase. Heck, even the Browns-backers feel sorry for them at this point.
Setting aside how the team squandered the first overall pick this year, somehow decided to curtail the natural instincts and unconventional brilliance of quarterback Justin Fields and of course there is the whole front office and coaching staff misery that would take five-thousand words to give it proper justice – instead let’s look at the defense, or lack thereof, for Chicago.
Even though Chicago has basically the worst passing DVOA and though they are in the middle of the pack against the run from an efficiency perspective. Denver is coming off a 70-20 curb-stomping and if coach Sean Payton wants to save this season, he needs to stop the losing right now. That means avoiding the temptation to get too pass-happy with Wilson and instead focusing on controlling the clock and steadily moving up and down the field.
The best way to accomplish this would be to leverage Javonte Williams in both the running and passing game. The Bears allowed two receiving touchdowns to Jerick McKinnon last week, along with a pair of rushing scores by his fellow running backs. In Week 1, Aaron Jones had one rushing and one receiving score, on his way to a 127 yard day on just nine carries and four targets.
Though he is still working his way back from a knee injury that cost him most of last year, Williams has been solid in the first three tilts. He is sharing time with off-season addition Samaje Perine, but it is clear that Williams has more upside and he should continue to get stronger each week he is removed from his injury.
The Lineup Generator keeps pushing Williams into tournament lineups on both DraftKings and FanDuel, which is due to his nice combination of salary, projected points and realistically attainable upside. While there are better options for “cash games” – it looks like a savvy and not particularly difficult strategy of being over the field on Williams this week.
Best NFL DFS Week 4 Picks and Building Blocks: Wide Receivers
Keenan Allen (Chargers-Raiders): DraftKings ($7,900, 22.7%), FanDuel ($9,500, 16.6%)
All eyes will be on Keenan Allen as it will be up to him to continue being the most reliable target for Herbert. This salary on DraftKings is just silly, but we are all playing with the same parameters. We know what we are getting from the former Cal Bear, who has been a productive receiver in the NFL for a decade.
The former 2017 Comeback Player of the Year and five time Pro Bowler is second in the league with 13.0 targets per game, third with 134.0 yards and while he has “only” two touchdowns, his overall productivity – including a league leading 32 catches – share of the passing game and complete trust of his quarterback make him a key building block in all formats on Sunday and a near “cash game” (H2Hs, 3-mans, double-ups) lock.
The loss of Williams should give a boost to veteran Josh Palmer and rookie Quentin Johnston. Neither is a priority, but both are synergistic options with their quarterback or as part of a game-stack. This duo does rate out as solid discount dandies on DraftKings, with Johnston having a $900 savings compared to Palmer on FanDuel, though we have yet to see the rookie do anything particularly special.
Davante Adams (Raiders-Chargers): DraftKings ($8,000, 21.4%), FanDuel ($8,100, 28.5%)
Update 2: Buckle up Buttercup, we have no idea what the Raiders are going to do this afternoon as word broke last night they are “leaning” towards starting rookie Aidan O’Connell, because… well it seems they want to end the day at 1-3 for “reasons” known only to the truly insane. The fourth-round selection out of Purdue was a two-year starter and twice named to the All-Big Ten second team. O’Connell had a strong preseason, but games that do not matter are a far cry from NFL Sundays. This dampens the prospects for Adams and Meyers, but with such a consolidated offense they still have merit in tournaments. Adams’s popularity is relatively unchanged on DraftKings (19.6%), where he is still a value in the full-PPR scoring format, though it has dropped on FanDuel (20.8%).
Update 1: Jimmy Garoppolo is still in the concussion protocol as of Saturday afternoon, if he is out, veteran Brian Hoyer will be under center. Last season, Hoyer saw action in one game, drawing a start for an injured Mac Jones, though unfortunately the journeyman was knocked out of the game himself in the first quarter after going 5 of 6 for 37 yards, being replaced by Rookie Bailey Zappe. Hoyer has been in the league since 2009, playing in 70 games and starting 40, so he should at least be able to keep the passing game moving with moderate success. Adams and Meyers get a bit of a downgrade, though Hoyer will still be feeding them, along with running back Josh Jacobs in the short game.
For as ridiculous as the salary is for Allen on DraftKings, Davante Adams is equally underpriced on FanDuel. The former Fresno State Bulldog is working with his third different featured quarterback of the last three seasons, but it doesn’t matter for the six-time Pro Bowl honoree, who has a career best 107.3 receiving yards per game through his first three tilts. Adams led the league with 14 receiving touchdowns last year and also with 18 in 2020. Currently he is on pace to do the same this season with a trio of tuddies to his credit.
Through three games, Las Vegas has allowed nine different players to top 40 receiving yards, highlighted by the 215 by Tyreek Hill in the opener and the 149 posted by Justin Jefferson last week. Considering that Adams has three consecutive All-Pro awards to his credit, it is fair to compare this trio as peers.
Teammate Jakobi Meyers is also a decent option as it appears that long-time Raider Hunter Renfrow is being phased out with only three targets through the early going and rookie tight end Michael Mayer struggling to find any success. The tight end position has just five targets and even though Meyers missed Week 2, he is second on the team with 22 targets, for a healthy 23.4% target share.
Puka Nacua (Rams-Colts): DraftKings ($6,700, 17.3%), FanDuel ($7,500, 17.7%)
Though he “only” had seven targets on Monday Night Football in Cincinnati against the Bengals, the rookie still leads the league with 42 targets, is second with 30 receptions and the only knock against him at this point is that he has not found the end zone. In a most unlikely development, he has stepped right into the Cooper Kupp role and while he will have struggles at some point, it is not likely this week against the dreadful Indianapolis passing defense. For this salary, we do need 7-to-8 receptions and upwards of 80 yards to make him a worthwhile option.
Best NFL DFS Week 4 Picks and Building Blocks: Tight Ends
T.J. Hockenson (Vikings-Panthers): DraftKings ($6,500, 3.8%), FanDuel ($7,200, 4.8%)
The Vikings are on the road for the second time this season and while Minnesota is looking to avoid the ignominy of going 0-4, this is not the fault of T.J. Hockenson. The main reason Hockenson is not seeing much popularity is that he is the 18th most expensive WR/TE on FanDuel and DraftKings for the featured slate and he is outside the top-35 from a point per dollar perspective among players at these positions.
Tournaments are a yes, “cash games” are a no for the former Detroit Lion. Two of his three multi-touchdown games have come since he joined the Vikings, but he has only scored in 17 of 60 career games. He also has 10 games with at least 75 receiving yards, with three being courtesy of his current quarterback Kirk Cousins. Yes he is a talented player, but in the DFS world, he is currently carrying a salary indicative of an alpha-performance.
Carolina has not allowed a touchdown to a tight end this season and only Noah Fant (4 receptions) and Colby Parkinson (3 receptions) of Seattle have more than two catches. Last year the Panthers allowed six tight end touchdowns, but three went to Shane Zylstra in a Week 16 laugher on Christmas Eve, when the Panthers did not share the holiday cheer with Detroit, taking down the Lions in a 37-23 game.
Pat Freiermuth (Steelers-Texans): DraftKings ($3,400, 13.2%), FanDuel ($5,500, 6.2%)
While Pat Freiermuth projects as the most popular tight end on DraftKings, it is not by much. Over on FanDuel he is in the scrum of half a dozen players getting just over a 5% projected popularity. This makes sense with Travis Kelce and Darren Waller playing on Sunday and Monday, with no other tight ends particularly standing out through three weeks.
Though the Colts have not yet allowed a tight end to score, three of the five who have recorded receptions against them have 34 or more yards. Freiermuth has just nine targets on the season, but he has four in two of those appearances. His salary is not going to break the bank and the former second-round draft pick out of Penn State already has a pair of touchdowns.
Best NFL DFS Week 4 Picks and Building Blocks: Defense/Special Teams
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders: DraftKings ($4,100, 9.5%), FanDuel ($5,000, 12.1%)
Even with Daniel Snyder out of the picture, the Commanders are still finding ways to put the “fun” in dysfunction. Last week in a home game, Washington ceded NINE sacks and FOUR interceptions against the Buffalo Bills. While that is unlikely to happen again this season, Sam Howell has now been sacked 19 times and tossed five pickles.
Philadelphia has eight turnovers, with two interceptions and six fumble recoveries, trailing only the nine tallied by Buffalo. Though the Eagles have only half a dozen sacks to date, expect that number to go up on Sunday afternoon.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals: DraftKings ($4,700, 4.5%), FanDuel ($4,700, 7.9%)
We can all agree that Josh Dobbs has been a fun story as he has led the Cardinals to one victory and had the team competitive in the other two games. Heck, the team has a +5 point differential, which is the 11th best in the league. Hanging tight with the Commanders and Giants is one thing, but after knocking off the Cowboys, there is no way the 49ers are overlooking this matchup against their division rivals.
San Francisco has just eight sacks on the season and Arizona has allowed a mere five, the Cardinals have not truly been tested by a good defense, while also playing catchup. The ‘Niners are tied for second with five interceptions, though they are still looking for their first fumble recovery.
As you get your NFL DFS Week 4 picks and lineups prepped on DraftKings and FanDuel, Stokastic can help. We have more free DFS content on the NFL homepage, premium DFS software including NFL Sims and the Lineup Generator, and the best live shows and videos from your favorite analysts on our YouTube channel.
You can also talk NFL DFS picks and strategy with the team and the rest of our sharp community on the Stokastic Discord!
