The British Open Championship often offers a wide-open affair with unpredictable weather and quirky courses that can wreak havoc on the rhythms of the best players. It is an important fact to remember, as there are often names that pop out of nowhere for Round 1 leaders at this event. That was the case last season when the weather forecast turned overnight and gave calm conditions for Round 1. This allowed Cameron Young — who entered the event off the back of a couple of missed cuts — to bolt out to a significant lead on Thursday and pay off nicely for his backers.
This year’s British Open will have some wind and rain involved, although it is likely the wind will stay down enough for the first two days to allow plenty of scoring as well. The British Open also does not stagger its players into waves completely, so groups will tee off in perpetuity until everyone is on the course or done with their round. For Thursday, slightly stronger gusts are expected for the afternoon, but afternoon players will also have exposure to warmer weather, which could help loosen them up a bit. Regardless, it is a day that will be hard to predict in terms of weather flow, so taking multiple players from each wave and hedging exposure is likely the best way to approach this market.
As always, this column will use OddsShopper’s golf betting tools to identify the best value options for the British Open Championship first-round leader selections. While it is fun to target longshots in the first-round leader market, majors tend to bring out the best in the elite players, so targeting a couple of bigger names for Thursday is warranted.
British Open Championship First-Round Leader Bets
The play here is targeting players from all sides of the draw and looking for strong off-tee players who have some putting upside. Approach play will obviously be key as well, but it will be hard for anyone to really get going with their irons if they are always in a pot bunker or gorse bush (or worse) off the tee.
Collin Morikawa First Round Leader (+4000) at DraftKings
There are no issues in looking to former British Open champion Collin Morikawa to get off to a hot start on Day 1. He has a later-afternoon tee time, but again, it is perfectly fine to spread exposure in this market given how unpredictable the weather can be. If there is a pocket of calm weather in the late afternoon, Morikawa could easily throw up a 64 on this course. He is top 5 in strokes gained on approach across short- and long-term form and is an arrow-straight driver, which will take most of the trouble at Royal Liverpool out of play. Given that his new putting stroke started paying off in his last start, it seems like a great time to invest in Morikawa, and the first-round leader market is a great spot to do it — especially since his +4000 first-round leader price is bigger than his outright price at most sportsbooks.
Bryson DeChambeau First Round Leader (+5500) and First-Round Top 5 (+900) at BetMGM
Give Bryson DeChambeau some credit for 2023, as he has shown up in each of the last two majors. He opened with the best round of Day 1 at the PGA Championship, shooting 66 there, and was again solid on Day 1 at the U.S. Open, opening with a 67. He may not be a traditional British Open target, but he was top 10 at this event last year and will be playing the British Open for the sixth time in his career. Another simple reason to blindly back DeChambeau is the great number on him. He has played well in each of his last five LIV Golf starts (posting a second place in Spain two starts ago) and would likely be far shorter this week if he were still playing on the PGA Tour. If playing it safe, BetMGM also has a nice top-5 price on DeChambeau at +900, which is completely reasonable given how he has shown up for the majors this season.
Genesis Scottish British Open First Round Leader Longshot Bets
Longshots often hit in the first-round market and are worth adding to betting cards. You can always use OddsShopper’s tools to check out and compare odds across the major sites.
Si Woo Kim First Round Leader (+9000) / First Round Top 5 (+1600) BetMGM
There are lots of intriguing names in the 80-1 to 100-1 range in the first-round leader market, but turning to the 10:20 morning pairing once again, Si Woo Kim is the first longshot play. Kim posted his best-ever finish at a British Open last year a St. Andrews when he landed a 15th for the week and would have finished much higher if he had not faltered in the final round. He is a former winner at TPC Sawgrass, a course that shares several technical characteristics with Liverpool despite the former being a links venue. Kim has also been great with his irons all season and is a consistent off-tee player to boot. Like with the first two selections, if Kim’s putter shows up for Round 1, a low opener is possible, and that makes him well worth both an outright and top-5 bet on BetMGM for Thursday.
Jordan Smith First Round Leader (+12500) / First Round Top 5 (+2000) at BetMGM
Jordan Smith is a great play this week, and he could even be worth a look in the top-40 markets, where he is going off at +175 or better on lots of sportsbooks. However, for maximum upside, the first-round leader market is intriguing as well. Smith has a solid early tee time (around 8:26 a.m. local), which should see him avoid the cooler temperatures but also still give him access to a softer and potentially calmer course. He enters on the back of a 12th-place finish from last week in Scotland, where he shot three rounds of 68 and gained over 6.1 strokes ball striking for the week. A regular on the DP World Tour, Smith has proven he can go low on almost any type of venue, and if his putter wakes up, he is hitting it well enough right that the birdie chances will be there in droves for Round 1. Last week a Scottish player put up a great round to end the event in Scotland, so now that the venue is in England, why not back an English player (at massive odds) to do the same in Round 1?
