CFB DFS differs from traditional NFL DFS in a few key areas. Rosters do not require a defense and instead incorporate a superflex where a second quarterback can be rostered. With the exception of short slates, using a second quarterback generally makes the most sense. From there, traditional stacking rules and other general football DFS strategies apply (such as looking at college football ownership projections). With that said, let’s get into the CFB Week 9 DFS picks and projections for Saturday, Oct. 28.
CFB Week 9 DFS Picks and Projections | Saturday, Oct. 28
Quarterback
John Rhys Plumlee ($7,200): Fresh off a last second loss to Oklahoma, UCF is a touchdown favorite over West Virginia in a game with a 58 total. John Rhys Plumlee returned from injury to throw for 281 yards and three touchdowns against Oklahoma while rushing eight times for another 90 yards and a touchdown. One of the premier dual threats in the country, Plumlee now finds himself in a superior matchup against a West Virginia secondary ranked outside the top 100 in coverage, per PFF.
Dillon Gabriel ($9,400): Oklahoma is a 10-point favorite over Kansas in a game with a 65 total. The top overall signal caller on the slate, Dillon Gabriel continues to rush more than ever before. He has 230 cumulative rushing yards while seeing 30 designed attempts over the last four games. In addition to his increased rushing, Gabriel averages 303.9 passing yards per game on 33.3 attempts. He should be a priority in cash games.
Maalik Murphy ($7,000): Texas opens Week 9 as an 18.5-point favorite over BYU in a game with a 50 total. With Quinn Ewers out for a few weeks, Texas will turn to Maalik Murphy under center. Murphy has barely played to this point, but he comes from an elite recruiting pedigree. Known as more of a pocket passer, he still benefits from a 35.25 implied team total.
Max Johnson ($6,500): Texas A&M is a 14.5-point favorite over South Carolina in a game with a 54 total. Max Johnson took over for an injured Conner Weigman after only a few games. Johnson has yet to eclipse 240 yards in a game this season, but this should be his best matchup to date. South Carolina allows 8.6 yards per pass and Texas A&M comes in with a 34.25 implied team total. While non-exciting, Johnson projects as a value play on this slate.
Fernando Mendoza ($5,800): Cal sits as an 11-point underdog to USC in a game with a 67 total. However, USC’s defense remains the gift that keeps on giving. After leaving their last game with an injury, it looks like four-star freshman Fernando Mendoza will draw another start here. While his sample remains small, Mendoza currently completes 62% of his passes for 7.1 yards per attempt. He also offers a little mobility. More of a matchup play, Mendoza remains a worthwhile punt option at the quarterback position.
Running Back
Jonathon Brooks ($7,500): With Murphy under center, it is possible Texas further reduces their 47.4% pass rate. Already averaging 21.3 touches per game, Jonathon Brooks averages 117.3 rushing and 24.6 receiving yards per game in Texas’ offense. He also exploits this same matchup weakness provided by BYU on the ground.
R.J. Harvey ($6,200): In addition to Plumlee, UCF also offers a cheap feature back in R.J. Harvey. While he cedes some work to Johnny Richardson, Harvey still has at least 16 touches in three straight games. This includes 25 touches against Oklahoma in UCF’s most recent game. After showing a willingness to ride Harvey in competitive games, he remains one of the top price-adjusted backs on the slate.
Le’Veon Moss ($5,200): For those nervous about rostering Johnson, the Texas A&M rushing attack also projects well. With Amari Daniels hitting the bench, Le’Veon Moss has touched the ball at least 17 times in three straight games. He operates as the primary pass catching back and exploits a weak South Carolina run defense, allowing 4.2 yards per carry to opposing rushers.
Ja’Quinden Jackson ($5,700): Utah is a 6.5-point underdog against Oregon in a game with a 48 total. Without Cam Rising, Utah has fully embraced the run on their way to a 37.4% pass rate. Within this scheme, Ja’Quinden Jackson has touch counts of 23 and 27 over the past two weeks. He also has a 60% route participation, putting him in play for all game scripts.
Mario Anderson ($4,700): On the other side of the Texas A&M matchup, Mario Anderson projects as a value in the run game. South Carolina has fully committed to Anderson, feeding him at least 15 touches in three of the last four games. His only contest below this mark came due to injury. Even in a tough matchup, it is hard to find this many touches at a sub-$5,000 price tag.
Wide Receiver
Jamari Thrash ($6,100): Louisville is a 3-point favorite over Duke in a game with a 46 total. The Cardinals could be without stud running back Jawhar Jordan after he suffered an injury in their last game. In that same contest, Jamari Thrash saw 20 targets. Already averaging 90.9 receiving yards per game on 8.6 targets, any additional volume would keep Thrash in play despite a tough matchup.
Javon Baker ($5,900): For those looking to stack Plumlee, Javon Baker stands out behind a 90+% route share and 23.6% of the targets. Baker now averages 78.7 receiving yards per game on 6.3 targets, including two games above 100 yards. Last week, he dusted Oklahoma for five catches, 134 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Kobe Hudson also looks intriguing as a low-owned pivot off Baker.
Nic Anderson ($5,800): Since Andrel Anthony went down with an injury, Nic Anderson has jumped into a full-time role for Oklahoma. In his new role, Anderson turned nine targets into five catches, 105 yards and a pair of touchdowns last week. Still cheaper than Drake Stoops and Jalil Farooq, he makes for an affordable pairing option with Gabriel.
Evan Stewart ($5,800): Making Johnson more attractive, all of his pass catchers are cheap. Specifically, Evan Stewart comes in with an affordable $5,800 price tag. After battling injury earlier this year, Stewart played a full-time role last week and received 11 targets from Johnson. Ainias Smith can also be considered at a slightly cheaper price point.
Oscar Delp ($3,400): The main beneficiary of the Brock Bowers injury, Oscar Delp immediately participated in 75% of Georgia’s routes. While this only amounted to three targets, Delp should be more involved in future matchups. Georgia is a 14.5-point favorite over Florida, making Delp a strong punt option.
