Cowboys-Chargers DFS Picks: Will Austin Ekeler See A Full Workload?! (October 16)

Monday Night Football concludes the Week 6 action with the Los Angeles Chargers hosting the Dallas Cowboys, who are suddenly searching for their identity as a team. In this issue of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll be providing our Cowboys-Chargers DFS picks for the Monday Night Football Showdown slate.

Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all the different slates, game formats and sites. This column will provide a free analysis of the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There are loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Monday Night slate, so check out these Cowboys-Chargers DFS picks.

NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Cowboys-Chargers DFS Picks

Dallas Cowboys: 26.25 Points

Quarterback

The Stokastic NFL DFS projections have Dak Prescott just outside the top 10 quarterbacks for the full Week 6 player pool. The change in play calling and philosophy from offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, who is now with the Chargers, to head coach Mike McCarthy has been a stark difference.

Dallas has been involved in three lopsided games with 32-plus point differentials, and the other two “close” games include a 30-10 victory and a 16-28 loss. However, we have seen that the effort to fix a perceived “interception” problem has resulted in a far less exotic offense, running mostly out of standard sets with little pre-snap motion. This seems to have had the unintended consequence of Prescott taking fewer mid- and deep throws, which also curbs what should be a more dynamic offense with a strong line and playmakers at the key skill positions.

Prescott is coming off a three-interception game, but that was on the road in San Francisco and he has just four picks this season. The semi-worrisome look at the game logs does show that, while Prescott has passing touchdowns in four of the five games, he has just five total on the season. The Chargers have allowed monster games from Tua Tagovailoa (446/3/1 in Week 1) and Kirk Cousins (367/3/1 in Week 4).

Running Back

Tony Pollard had his highest opportunity rate in the aforementioned “close” games, with 25 carries and eight targets and 23 carries and three targets. This usage is a good thing, as Dallas is not running the franchise back into the ground in games with all-but-determined outcomes. Los Angeles has the 15th passing DVOA, but the Chargers have been abysmal against the run, with the fourth-worst rushing DVOA.

Five different running backs have tallied at least 50 combined yards against Los Angeles, with three also reaching the end zone. Rico Dowdle (54 snaps, 25 carries for 95 yards, six targets for five catches, 50 yards and a score) and Deuce Vaughn (48 snaps, 20 carries for 40 yards, five targets for five catches and 19 yards) and have had similar snap counts and workloads, though while Dowdle has had a little more success, the team does scheme some looks for Vaughn.

In a surprising twist, Hunter Luepke has had 50 offensive snaps and three carries for 13 yards and a score, bringing in his lone target for another dozen yards.

Wide Receivers

CeeDee Lamb has not had the volume that most of his supporters were hoping for, with just 35 targets on the season. Of course, he is one of the most talented receivers in the league, so that is not a pressing concern, but it is still notable. He still leads the team and has a 22.1% target share, though that is a bare-minimum floor for a WR1 in today’s NFL. DraftKings ($9,000) is granting him a slight discount, but he is not getting much of one on FanDuel ($14,500).

Brandin Cooks and Michael Gallup are essentially a coinflip, with each averaging around five targets per game. Gallup has a ridiculous $2,800 salary on DraftKings, which is just shy of half of Cooks’ $5,400 cap hit. FanDuel sees things differently, with Gallup carrying an $8,000 tag compared to the $7,500 for Cooks. Let salary needs and personal preference be your deciding factors, and just know that the popularity for this duo will be heavily influenced by the salary disparity on DraftKings.

Jalen Tolbert has nine targets on the season, with none last week and four coming in Week 2, when Cooks was out with an injury. KaVontae Turpin has six targets, with just three over the last four games, though he did turn his lone look into a 26-yard score against the 49ers in San Francisco.

Tight Ends

Rookie Jake Ferguson has been solid this season, and he is second on the team with 28 targets. On DraftKings he is a far cheaper option than Cooks, with a similarly projected workload — though he has less competition from the other tight ends than the NFL nomad does against the various wideouts.

Luke Schoonmaker did pop up for three targets in Week 4, but Ferguson still had seven in that game. He is a serviceable discount dandy, especially with Peyton Hendershot on the injured reserve and Sean McKeon serving as the third tight end. McKeon saw the field for 18 snaps in Week 4, when Ferguson left early with an injury, though he dropped back to just half a dozen offensive plays in the last game.

Defense/Special Teams

Los Angeles has just two turnovers on the season, and Dallas is among the league leaders with 11 takeaways. The Chargers are ceding just over two sacks per game, which is near the best in the league, while the Cowboys are averaging a solid three quarterback takedowns per tilt.

Los Angeles Chargers: 24.75 Points

Quarterback

Heading into their Week 5 bye, the Chargers had put together two victories to even their record at 2-2, so now is the time to build on that momentum and shake off the early-season drudgery. Last week Brock Purdy became the first opposing signal-caller to crack 200 yards against the Cowboys, with 252 and four scores on an incredibly efficient 17 of 24.

Justin Herbert is averaging 276.5 passing yards per game, which is the fifth-best mark in the league, and while he has just seven aerial scores in his four outings, he does have three rushing touchdowns and, most importantly, only one interception. Though the offense is not quite as dangerous with Mike Williams lost for the year, it is getting Austin Ekeler back, which should be a tremendous help for Herbert.

Running Back

The Chargers took full advantage of the early bye week to make sure that Ekeler is coming back at full health. To wit, he was a full participant in practice all week, and he has declared himself ready for tonight’s matchup. FanDuel and DraftKings have both assigned him the highest salary for Monday Night Football, which is completely appropriate.

We know exactly what we are getting with Ekeler, and while this is going to be a tough row to hoe against the sixth-best passing and 12th-best rushing DVOA, Ekeler is one of the best five running backs in the game and matchup-proof. Four different running backs have posted 60-plus combined yards against the Dallas defense, and anything less than 100 from Ekeler is going to be disappointing to say the least.

Joshua Kelly had 41 totes for 116 rushing yards and no touchdowns and saw just two targets for one catch and 6 yards in the three games without Ekeler. Isaiah Spiller had eight rushes for 22 yards while catching both of his targets for 15 more yards. Again, Ekeler is going to be a major upgrade over this flotsam and jetsam.

Wide Receiver

Keenan Allen is averaging 11 targets per game, and he is fifth in the league with 108.5 yards per game. He has three touchdowns, plus he threw for another, and even with opposing defenses keying on him, we have seen this veteran of 11 NFL campaigns work his magic time and time again.

Things get a little dicey after Allen, with Joshua Palmer elevating to the WR2 but now dealing with a sore groin. Quentin Johnston has struggled as well, but the 21st selection in the 2023 NFL Draft should benefit from the bye week as he continues to acclimate to the pressures of professional football. If Palmer is out or we get word he will be limited, Derius Davis and Keelan Doss are likely to see the field, though Davis has all four targets that have been earmarked for this duo.

Tight End

Gerald Everett has just 14 targets this season, and Donald Parham Jr. has outworked him in the red zone, with five opportunities to the two of Everett. Stone Smartt has two looks on the season, and he has no value unless Parham (wrist) is out. Everett is too talented to dismiss, and we can continue to go back to the well with the seven-year veteran.

Defense/Special Teams

Los Angeles is averaging an impressive four sacks per game, while Dallas is ceding two per tilt. Four of the five turnovers allowed by the Cowboys occurred last week against San Francisco, and the Chargers are in the middle of the pack with just shy of two takeaways per game.

Monday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy

The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value. However, those taking the MME approach should remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. That also works conversely, pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with his quarterback.

Cowboys-Chargers DFS Picks Rankings

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Cowboys-Chargers

1. Keenan Allen: Volume should be there, Trevon Diggs is out for the season and C.J. Goodwin will miss tonight’s game. Safety Juanyeh Thomas is doubtful, though there is a chance that cornerback Nahshon Wright could be activated from the injured reserve. Even if that occurs, Allen should still have the advantage, and he is a strong option for the multiplier slot in all formats.
2. Austin Ekeler: Also viable for the multiplier slot, and it is only the apex salary that has him a tick behind his teammate.
3. Tony Pollard: Perfect game for him to get a couple dozen opportunities.
4. CeeDee Lamb: Breakout game is coming soon and could materialize tonight.
5. Justin Herbert: Dallas options have a better fantasy-point-per-dollar ratio, though Herbert is a viable MVP or Captain play.
6. Dak Prescott: Too bad his former OC is on the other side of the field.
7. Michael Gallup: DraftKings only; he drops down to Cooks’ line on FanDuel.
8. Jake Ferguson: Outstanding rookie, filling in admirably for Dalton Schultz.
9. Cameron Dicker: Made just one of three from beyond 50 yards in his 15 career games; of course, those were his only career misses from any distance (27 of 29, 93.1%), and he is perfect on 36 PATs.
10. Brandon Aubrey: Rookie has made all 14 field goal attempts, including two from 50-plus, and is 10 of 11 on extra points.

Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Cowboys-Chargers

1. Brandin Cooks: Sadly, no salary discount for nominal opportunity share.
2. Josh Palmer: Would be above the kickers if he were 100% healthy.
3. Gerald Everett: Steady veteran option with the trust of his quarterback; looks will be there over the course of the season.
4. Quentin Johnston: Raw but talented.
5. Rico Dowdle and Deuce Vaughn: Discount dandies but far from necessary.

Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Cowboys-Chargers

1. Los Angeles D/ST: Slight edge for discount and home field.
2. Dallas D/ST: Would be higher, but short-handed defensive backfield is a concern.
3. Josh Kelley: Ugh, which, of course, means he will somehow find the end zone now that Ekeler is back.
4. Jalen Tolbert: DraftKings only at the $200 minimum.
5. KaVontae Turpin: Should get a few offense snaps and even a target or two; dual kick returner for Dallas.
6. Derius Davis: Rookie returns punts and kickoffs; moves ahead of the defenses in the event Palmer is inactive.
7. Donald Parham Jr. and Luke Schoonmaker: Backup tight ends bring that island game magic!
8. Hunter Luepke: Surprisingly on the field more than expected, likely due to soooo many wide point differentials in both directions.
9. Isaiah Spiller: Needs several things to break his way to even get touches.
10. Stone Smartt, Sean McKeon and Tre’ McKitty: TE3s; sadly, National Tight End Day is the fourth Sunday in October.
11. Simi Fehoko: “Remember Me?!” is what he will be saying to his former teammates and his current coaches before the game.
12. Tre Lance, Cooper Rush and Easton Stick: Sorry fellas, not tonight.

Stokastic NFL DFS Tools & Tips

Looking for more NFL DFS advice? You’ve come to the right place. Sign up for our NFL DFS Premium Package for access to our scoring projections, ownership projections and our state-of-the-art NFL DFS simulation tools. If you’re a beginner, you should check out our NFL DFS quick start guide put together by one of the world’s best DFS players, Alex “Awesemo” Baker. Our Premium Package costs just $35 per week or $115 per month — or you can upgrade to our MAX package for access to post-contest sims, more lineups and VIP support for $60 per week or $199 per month.