MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Attack Reynaldo Lopez? (July 2)

We’re back with another monster 11-game MLB slate that locks at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings to cap off the work week. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.

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MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Tuesday, July 2

Today's MLB DFS picks, top stacks and pitchers on DraftKings and FanDuel include MLB DFS predictions for key talent like Tanner Bibee...
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MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher

Diamondbacks-Dodgers: Bobby Miller

Stokastic’s Top 2 Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 9.0%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,000

Even with 11 games and 22 pitchers in play tonight, ownership at the position is projected to be pretty concentrated. As of this writing, George Kirby, Grayson Rodriguez, Jose Soriano, Luis Gil and Dylan Cease are projected to be a combined 120.4% owned on DraftKings, with the field clearly prioritizing getting to two pitchers amongst that group of five. That leaves us with a bunch of contrarian pitchers to look at, and Dodgers right-hander Bobby Miller has emerged as the best of the bunch.

Coming into tonight’s action averaging a paltry 8.2 DraftKings points per game, Miller has been unsteady since a dominant opening start of the season. After putting up 37.7 fantasy points against the Cardinals, Miller has struggled in pretty much every matchup he’s been in, with the past two coming against weaker opponents in the Rockies and White Sox. Despite Miller’s struggles so far this season, this is still a pitcher who showed a ton of upside last year as a rookie, and backed that up with one of the best pitching performances we’ve seen all season in that aforementioned start against St. Louis. While there’s certainly no guarantee that Miller ‘finds himself’ tonight, he’s got real upside at $8K on DraftKings in a matchup with a Diamondbacks lineup that struggles against right-handed pitching.

Miller is currently projected to be a top-2 pitcher 9.0% of the time this slate plays out. With only 2.1% of lineups expected to roster him, Miller is worth looking at as a differentiator in tournaments.

If you need some more tips on how to use the Post-Contest Simulator to improve your lineup study process, Steve Buzzard has a great guide here on how to maximize your lessons learned from the Sims! Check it out HERE — or watch the video below.

MLB DFS Contrarian Stack

Giants-Braves: Giants

Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 2.6%
Ownership Projection
DraftKings: 1.7%

Unlike at pitcher where five players are getting the majority of love, stack ownership is spread out. Even with two appealing offenses in Coors Field tonight, the Yankees are actually the only team currently projected to be double-digit-owned as a stack, and facing Graham Ashcraft in Yankee Stadium, that checks out. The Yankees themselves are only projected to be 10.5% owned, with pretty much every other team on the slate coming in between 1% and 8%. The Giants are at the bottom of that group as the top contrarian stack on the board.

Matched up with Atlanta right-hander Reynaldo Lopez, there isn’t a ton to like about the Giants on paper. Lopez comes into tonight averaging 20.1 DraftKings points per game while sporting a sparkling 1.70 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, .262 WOBA and 81:27 K:BB through 79.1 innings over 14 starts in 2024. While there’s no denying that Lopez has been fantastic so far this season, his underlying numbers suggest that major regression is coming sooner rather than later. Lopez’s 3.98 xERA and .315 xWOBA are much more indicative of the pitcher he actually is right now. That’s not to say he’s a bad pitcher by any means, but the Giants are in a much better spot than the field realizes.

As of this writing, the Giants are projected to be the top stack 2.6% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 1.7% of lineups expected to stack them, it’s easy to get over the field on them in large-field GPPs.

Other Contrarian Stacks to Consider

Orioles, Twins, Braves, Mariners

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Matt Belman graduated from Tulane University with a degree in Consumer Behavior. He has been playing and analyzing DFS full time since 2018. He has qualified for the 2023 DraftKings NBA World Championship (5x), the 2023 DraftKings MLB World Championship (2x), the 2023 FanDuel MLB World Championship (2x) and the 2023 DraftKings NFL World Championship. You can find him on X at @fantasytipsmatt.

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