MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: To Coors or Not to Coors? (June 19)

In the midst of a five-game afternoon slate, the baseball gods bless us with another eight-game MLB main slate that locks at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.

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MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Wednesday, June 19

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MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher

Astros-White Sox: Garrett Crochet

Stokastic’s Top 2 Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 17.4%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,200

With Coors Field in play, and standout pitching options both cheap and expensive, ownership amongst arms is projected to be pretty concentrated. As of this writing, Cole Ragans, Joe Ryan, Hunter Brown and Taj Bradley are projected to be a combined 106.8% owned, and it wouldn’t be all that surprising to see that number be higher by the time the slate starts. While all four of those pitchers are really good options in their own right, Garrett Crochet has been better than all of them this season.

Crochet comes into tonight averaging a slate-high 22.5 DraftKings points per game with a 3.16 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and a remarkable 35.7% K%. Crochet has undoubtedly been one of the biggest breakout stars of the season so far, and his underlying numbers are even better than his actual numbers.

Crochet’s 2.36 xERA is in the 96th percentile of all major league pitchers, and his 116 strikeouts tie him with Dodgers ace Tyler Glasnow for the league lead. Though a matchup with Houston is always risky, the Astros’ lineup isn’t nearly as scary as it once was, and until Kyle Tucker comes back, I don’t even necessarily think it’s a bad spot. After watching Jonathan Cannon carve this Houston lineup last night, it’s a bit surprising more people aren’t getting to the best pitcher on the slate.

Crochet stands out in a big way from a leverage perspective on DraftKings. As of this writing, he’s projected to be a top-2 pitcher 17.4% of the time this slate plays out. With only 11.2% of lineups expected to roster him, Crochet is the top tournament arm on the slate. If you need some more tips on how to use the Post-Contest Simulator to improve your lineup study process, Steve Buzzard has a great guide here on how to maximize your lessons learned from the Sims! Check it out HERE — or watch the video below.


MLB DFS Contrarian Stack

Dodgers-Rockies: Rockies

Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 6.8%
Ownership Projection
DraftKings: 3.6%

The Rockies could seemingly be in this spot every day, but stacking them is more often than not painful for the soul. That said, there aren’t many appealing contrarian stacks to choose from tonight, and Colorado finds itself in a sneaky good spot at home against Dodgers right-hander Bobby Miller. Though Miller has dominant strikeout upside as evidenced by his 36.0% strikeout percentage in limited action to start the season, he’s far from the safest pitcher in the world, and there’s a lot to like about the Rockies in tournaments.

Despite Coors Field being in play, ownership amongst stacks is pretty spread out. While the Dodgers are projected to be the highest owned, their best hitters are all extremely expensive, pushing up the ownership of some of the cheaper stacks. With the Rockies pretty pricey across the board, it would be surprising to see ownership stream on them at all. Miller is also a pitcher that the public respects, so it’s reasonable to think the masses want no part of dumpster diving with Colorado.

Though I’m high on Miller for the long term, he’s prone to getting blown up, and his recent rehab assignment inspires little confidence. While these numbers should be taken with a grain of salt, it was not encouraging to see Miller struggle to the tune of a 7.80 ERA, 1.80 WHIP and 10:8 K:BB over 15 innings in the minors. Aside from his first start of the season, Miller has not pitched very well, and the Rockies are projected to be one of the lowest owned teams on the slate.

Other Contrarian Stacks to Consider

Orioles, Yankees, Angels, Twins

Matt Belman graduated from Tulane University with a degree in Consumer Behavior. He has been playing and analyzing DFS full time since 2018. He has qualified for the 2023 DraftKings NBA World Championship (5x), the 2023 DraftKings MLB World Championship (2x), the 2023 FanDuel MLB World Championship (2x) and the 2023 DraftKings NFL World Championship. You can find him on X at @fantasytipsmatt.

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