Thursday is an abbreviated slate with one early matchup then a three-game featured slate locking early at 7:05 p.m. ET lock on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. As always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help in identifying today’s MLB DFS top stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. For DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo MLB DFS picks tonight, look to LHP Braxton Garrett in Washington against the pesky Nationals, with his fellow Marlins shaping up as the offense to target as well.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Spencer Strider at Los Angeles Dodgers — 3.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $12,500 | FanDuel $12,000 | Yahoo $52
Seeing the Dodgers with a sub-4.00 implied run total has been a very rare occurrence over the last several seasons. Of course, they are going against one of the best pitchers in the league, with RHP Spencer Strider taking the mound tonight. Per OddsShopper.com, we can see that the National League Cy Young Award race has tightened, with Blake Snell (-140) in the lead, Strider (+170) and Zac Gallen (+400) giving chase, and Justin Steele (+600) the last viable candidate if things continue on the current trajectory.
Strider is tied with Steele for the league lead at 15 wins, and his 13.9 strikeouts per nine innings are a full two above American League Cy Young candidate Kevin Gausman (11.7). The only knock against Strider is that he has ceded 18 of his 26 career home runs allowed this year. Other than that, he is basically matchup-proof from a DFS perspective given his ability to generate a constant stream of whiffs.
The Los Angeles lineup is a little less daunting with J.D. Martinez on the injured list, but the Dodgers still have Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy, who boast prodigious power when holding the platoon advantage, as well as Mookie Betts, who is challenging for the National League MVP award. Strider has his work cut out for him, though if anyone can neutralize the Dodgers at home, it is Atlanta’s ace.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: LHP Braxton Garrett at Washington Nationals — 3.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,200 | FanDuel $8,700 | Yahoo $39
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool has LHP Braxton Garrett as the leading fantasy-point-per-dollar option on Thursday’s short slate. Essentially, we are looking at three quality starting pitchers in Strider, Garrett and RHP Lance Lynn, though it is hard to really recommend him with much fervor against the veritable All-Star lineup rolled out every day by Atlanta.
If we cross-out Lynn, then we are left with RHP Joan Adon and his home run issues or RHP Pedro Avila, who is unproven and inconsistent. San Francisco is likely to use an opener, and then who knows which of their bulk options will come in, as they tend to be cagey with that information. Adon and Avila are clearly SP2 options on DraftKings and Yahoo, otherwise we will be looking at heavy overlap for Strider + Garrett rosters.
Garrett has been solid, with 25 of his 51 career starts occurring this season, which also means he is at a workload-high 134 innings this year. In his last half dozen starts, the 26-year-old has been chugging along with four quality starts and just three or fewer runs allowed in each appearance. The strikeouts have dramatically dropped off to just 6.3 per nine innings during this stretch, compared to his 10.2 per nine in the preceding 19 starts.
The Nationals have been frisky with a 17-10 record in August, though they are still in the bottom third of the league in scoring during this timeframe, with 3.67 runs per tilt. For perspective, only 12 times in these 27 games (44.4%) have they plated more than four runners. The projected lineup for the Nationals has a 15.9% strikeout rate against southpaws over the last season-plus. We will be looking for Garrett to tally a quality start and garner half a dozen strikeouts for him to be a neutral option at tonight’s salary, with the win bonus or another couple strikeouts taking him into “must have” territory. That is along the lines of an 85th-percentile outcome, but on a short slate he could be “the” difference-maker.
Keeping in mind the limited options on the two-pitcher sites, feel free to allow one or two hitters against your pitcher in order to provide differentiation from the field and create a path for potential separation from the pack. Lane Thomas and Joey Meneses fit the bill for this strategy.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Miami Marlins at RHP Joan Adon — 4.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
After suffering six earned runs in just four innings against the Phillies, RHP Joan Adon held the Marlins scoreless for six innings in Miami. Adon has been in the Nationals organization since 2017, when he began his baseball odyssey in the Dominican Summer League. Prior to the pandemic-cancelled 2020 MiLB season, the right-hander had never worked above Single-A. When baseball resumed the following season, Adon worked his way up from the bottom, with a stop at each level before getting a cup of coffee with the big club.
The upside for Adon is relatively limited to being an innings-eater, which is not particularly promising for a pitcher who just celebrated his 25th trip around the sun. Left-handed power is a major soft spot, so Jazz Chisholm Jr., Jesus Sanchez and former National Josh Bell are best positioned to take advantage of that weakness. Jorge Soler, Jake Burger and Bryan De La Cruz are all above average with regards to same-handed pitchers and can be used to fill out full stacks. Last but not least, since he is the leadoff hitter, reigning American League batting champion Luis Arraez looks poised to add some National League hardware to his trophy case, as his .349 average leads the entire league by .011 points.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Atlanta Braves at RHP Lance Lynn — 4.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
While RHP Lance Lynn has been sublime since donning a Dodgers uniform, his recent performance is somewhat overstated based on the opposition. Los Angeles has been victorious in all five of his starts, and while the 36-year-old is 4-0 with a 2.03 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, these games have been against Oakland, Colorado, Milwaukee, Boston and San Diego. In his last start, the Red Sox got to him for 10 hits, four runs and a pair of round-trippers in just six innings of action.
Prior to being traded to L.A., Lynn was scuffling in Chicago with a 6.47 ERA, 5.20 FIP and a .270 batting average against, in 21 starts for the White Sox. That is a stat line that is more representative of what the Atlanta offense should produce tonight. Go with the usual suspects, including Austin Riley, Matt Olson, Ronald Acuna Jr. and recently returned Ozzie Albies. The lofty salaries for this quartet on DraftKings and Yahoo are going to require getting creative, as it will be tricky to also roster Strider with his teammates — unless, of course, looking to the likes of Eddie Rosario, Orlando Arcia and Michael Harris II at the bottom of the order for discounts.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
Tonight we can consider Joey Meneses in the sports wagering market. It is not often that we ride with the Nationals batters in this section, but pickings are slim with only six teams in action.
Currently Meneses has +750 line to hit a home run, but looking at the True Odds feature on OddsShopper, we can see the +698 line for him to surpass this milestone means this line is inefficient by 6%. While we are looking at a 13% likelihood of Meneses knocking one out of the park against LHP Braxton Garrett, getting those little positive expected value edges are what helps sustain and even grow bankrolls — particularly when considering that the expectation is that Meneses would be hitting a home run every 10 or so at-bats in this matchup.
This season 15 of Garrett’s 18 home runs allowed have been from right-handed batsmen. Meneses is more of a doubles hitter and RBI producer than a home run hitter, but that is also why the payout is much higher than standard sluggers. In his career, Meneses is just 1-for-9 against Garrett, and while that is too small of a sample size to provide any actionable information, it does demonstrate that home run wagers are far from sure things.
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Final Thoughts for Thursday, August 31 | MLB DFS Picks
Weather will not be an issue for any of the four games on Thursday’s short slate.
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