College football returns with an 11-game Thursday slate to kick off Week 1. CFB DFS differs from traditional NFL DFS in a few key areas. Rosters do not require a defense and instead incorporate a Super-Flex where a second quarterback can be rostered. With the exception of short slates, using a second quarterback generally makes the most sense. From there, traditional stacking rules and other general football DFS strategies apply (such as looking at college football ownership projections). With that said, let’s dive into our CFB Week 1 DFS picks, projections and more.
CFB Week 1 DFS Picks and Projections
Quarterback
John Rhys Plumlee ($10,600): Plumlee is the most expensive quarterback on this slate. However, he tops Stokastic’s CFB DFS projections behind his elite dual-threat ability. Central Florida is a -35.5 favorite over Kent State in a game with a 56 total. While Plumlee runs the risk of sitting at some point in the second half, he comes with a strong floor/ceiling combination. Last year, he averaged 198.9 passing yards and 66 rushing yards per game. It should be noted that Plumlee left multiple games with injury, potentially depressing his stats. While expensive, Plumlee is relatively safe.
Braylon Braxton ($9,500): FCS lines have not been released yet, but SP+ projects Tulsa as a 32-point favorite with a total of 56 points. This gives Tulsa the second-highest team total, behind only UCF this week. Tulsa has a new head coach in Kevin Wilson and a new offensive coordinator in Steve Spurrier Jr.. Wilson was Ohio State’s offensive coordinator last year, while Spurrier coordinated Mississippi State’s pass game. All that is to say that this should be a pass-heavy offense until the game gets out of control. Braxton started for a portion of 2022, completing 56.4% of his passes. He ended with 1,133 yards, 10 touchdowns and two interceptions. Braxton does have mobility, rushing 55 times for 145 yards last year. Ultimately, he is a slightly better value than Plumlee.
Darren Grainger ($7,400): Georgia State projects as a 7-point favorite over Rhode Island in a game 57 total. Rhode Island is a good FCS team and should play well enough to keep this competitive, maintaining the starting playing time for Georgia State. An elite dual threat, Grainger averaged 203.6 passing yards and 61.2 rushing yards per game. He is the top price-adjusted play at the position.
Mitch Griffis ($8,300): Taking over for Sam Hartman at Wake Forest, Griffis will now lead the slow mesh offense. Wake Forest projects as a 22-point favorite over Elon in a game with a 52 total. Griffis has not played much in his career, but he has a 58.9% completion percentage for 8.5 yards per attempt, five touchdowns and one interception. He does not appear mobile, so he will rely on his arm for DFS success. Griffis likely carries some ownership, so tread carefully.
Cole Doyle ($5,300): Saint Francis quarterback Doyle headlines the slate’s FCS options. Saint Francis only projects as a 2-point underdog to Western Michigan in a game with a 50 total. Saint Francis runs at a decent pace, averaging 65.9 plays per game last year. It only passes the ball 42.7% of the time, but Doyle has strong mobility. Last year, he rushed 36 times for 310 yards. He also completed 65.3% of his passes for 8.9 yards per attempt, 21 touchdowns and three interceptions on his way to winning NEC Offensive Player of the Year.
Kasim Hill ($5,400): Rhode Island only projects as a 7-point underdog against Georgia State. Hill returns at quarterback and has a decent dual-threat profile, as he rushed for 268 yards and seven touchdowns last year. As a passer, he completed 54.1% of his passes for 7.9 yards per attempt, 19 touchdowns and seven interceptions. This offense passes about 47.2% of the time while running 63.6 plays per game. Between Doyle and Hill, Doyle brings the superior ceiling, while Hill has a better floor.
Running Back
R.J. Harvey ($5,200): UCF lost lead running back Isaiah Bowser this offseason. However, Harvey accounted for a hyper-efficient 796 rushing yards on just 118 attempts (6.7 yards per carry). Harvey also caught 22 passes, giving him a three-down skill set. With that said, Harvey does not have great size. This could make Johnny Richardson an intriguing GPP play in a blowout at $3,300 price tag.
Cam Skattebo ($5,900): Arizona State lost Xazavian Valladay this offseason, but it brought in Skattebo from Sacramento State. He rushed for 1,382 yards last year, winning Big Sky Offensive Player of the Year, and he also caught 31 passes last year. Arizona State listed him as a clear starter over co-backups DeCarlos Brooks and Kyson Brown. Arizona State is a projected 23-point favorite over Southern Utah in a game with a 55 total.
Jordan Ford ($5,300): Tulsa has Ford as the lone starter, with Tajh Gary and Bill Jackson as co-backups. Tulsa lost Deneric Prince and Steven Anderson this offseason. Ford still carried 56 times for an efficient 288 yards (5.1 yards per carry) and should see elevated opportunity.
Marcus Carroll ($4,500): Georgia State lost its top two running backs in Tucker Gregg and Jamyest Williams. Carroll played a role in this offense last year, with 127 carries for 622 yards (4.9 yards per attempt). He only caught five passes for 29 yards, but Georgia State typically does not utilize its backs in the pass game. Behind him, K.Z. Adams only carried two times last year, which could set up Carroll as the feature back. Georgia State only passed the ball 36.6% of the time last year.
Jermaine Brown ($6,200): UAB turns to Trent Dilfer at head coach and Alex Mortensen as offensive coordinator. Mortensen last worked as an Alabama analyst from 2019 to 2022, and the offense likely will be run heavy. With DeWayne McBride gone, Brown returns after carrying 166 times for 948 yards (5.7 yards per attempt). Brown also functioned as the pass-catching back, with 19 receptions. UAB listed Brown as a co-starter with Isaiah Jacobs ($4,100) as a co-starter, potentially giving him some viability as well.
Cody Schrader ($7,000): Missouri projects as a 35-point favorite over South Dakota in a game with a 43 total. Missouri has Schrader as a co-starter with Nathanial Peat. Schrader worked clearly ahead of Peat at the end of last year. Both backs should find success as long as they are in the game.
Justice Ellison ($5,700): Ellison projects to lead a committee for a Wake Forest team with a solid 37 total. This team notoriously forced Kenneth Walker III into a timeshare with scrubs, so do not expect anything different. With that said, Wake Forest is a massive favorite over Elon. Behind him, expect Demond Claiborne, Will Towns and Tate Carney to see some work as well.
Devontae Houston ($3,700): Connecticut enters Week 1 as a 14-point underdog to North Carolina State in a game with a 46.5 total. The Huskies only passed the ball 36.4% of the time, which sets up this backfield for some serious volume. The running backs dealt with a ton of injuries last year, but Houston still rushed for a hyper-efficient 578 yards on 84 carries (6.9 yards per attempt). He makes sense as a punt option.
Editor Note: Looking for more 2023 college football predictions? Experts are here to break down this college football season — make sure to check out the rest of OddsShopper’s’ college football articles. If you still need more picks, our market-based betting model might just be for you — or try it out now!
Wide Receiver
Javon Baker ($8,000): Baker also brings elite upside as long as he is in the game. The Alabama transfer eclipsed 80 receiving yards five times last year and led the team with 796 yards. The team has Kobe Hudson as a co-starter with Florida Trent Whittemore, making Baker the top pay-up option. Xavier Townsend could be a mid-priced play.
Taylor Morin ($6,200): With the Donavon Greene injury, Wake Forest projects to play with a clear top three receivers. Morin ranked fourth on the team in receiving with 575 yards on 47 catches last year. Jahmal Banks proved slightly more efficient with 636 yards on 42 catches. Playing at least one of these guys makes sense.
Luther Burden ($6,800): Missouri projects to use at least two quarterbacks, but Burden should be featured regardless. This team lost Dominic Lovett, but Burden still caught 45 passes for 375 yards while carrying 18 times in this offense. It also lost second-leading receiver Barrett Banister.
Ke’Shawn Williams ($5,300): With Greene out of the picture, Williams should work into a clear starting role. Williams still caught 39 passes for 553 yards as a rotational player last year. He makes sense, along with the other Wake Forest starters.
Isaiah Wooden ($3,900): The top FCS receiver on this slate, Wooden plays for Southern Utah. This team averages 66.9 plays per game and a 51.5% pass rate. Wooden caught 40 passes for 832 yards and six touchdowns last year. He also carried 21 times for 253 yards, giving him a solid floor against Arizona State.
Xavier Guillory ($6,700): Elijhah Badger is suspended for the first half of this game, and Giovanni Sanders was listed as a co-starter with Melquan Stovall. This leaves Idaho State transfer Guillory as the only clear starter. He caught 52 passes for 783 yards and four touchdowns last year. With freshman Jaden Rashada starting this game, Arizona State brings some sneaky upside.
Marquis Shoulders ($3,300): Tulsa has Shoulders, Devan Williams and Braylin Presley as the starting receivers. DraftKings incorrectly designated Presley as a running back, making him tough to play. Shoulders and Williams are entirely unproven, but this team has a huge team total and a solid pass rate. Taking a shot on one of these guys for salary relief makes sense.
Robert Lewis ($4,000): Georgia State lost top receiver Jamari Thrash this offseason, but it returns its second-leading receiver Lewis. He caught 22 passes for 379 yards before getting injured last year. He ranks slightly ahead of Ja’Cyais Credle and Tailique Williams, who are also strong value options.
Kevin Concepcion ($3,000): North Carolina State’s depth chart lists 12 starting positions on offense. Rules only allow 11 players, making this somewhat tricky. However, the only two lone listed starters were Keyon Lesane and Kevin Concepcion. Concepcion is an incoming freshman who played well enough to earn a starting role. At the stone minimum, he is a perfectly fine play.
