Friday brings a loaded 13-game featured slate with a 7:05 p.m. ET start time on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. As always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help in identifying today’s MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. For DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo MLB DFS picks tonight, the key pitchers are RHPs Lance Lynn and Corbin Burnes, with plenty of offensive stacking options to choose from.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Justin Verlander vs. Los Angeles Angels — 3.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,400 | FanDuel $10,500 | Yahoo $47
Though this is not quite as good a matchup as our next two pitchers have on tap, RHP Justin Verlander is still one of the most “over leveraged” pitchers for the featured Friday tournaments, with an imbalance between his popularity far exceeding his likelihood of being one of the top fantasy point producers. There is nothing wrong with building lineups around the three-time Cy Young Award winner, but going to an alternate option will provide differentiation over the field.
The Angels have won their last two games after losing seven consecutive games after the trade deadline. Even with Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon on the shelf, they have reloaded via trades and have closed up most of the weak spots in the batting order. Of course, there still are some “easy outs” at the bottom of the lineup, with Verlander likely to close out Matt Thaiss and Randal Grichuk each time they step in the batter’s box.
Evening Slate Pitching Target: RHP Corbin Burnes at Chicago White Sox — 3.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $11,200 | FanDuel $10,800 | Yahoo $53
Over his last seven starts, RHP Corbin Burnes has allowed two or fewer runs and has compiled a 2.00 ERA, 2.93 FIP and a .113 batting average against with 52 strikeouts in 45 innings. The White Sox have a lack of power against right-handed pitching, with tonight’s projected lineup expected to have five different hitters who have produced a sub-.115 ISO this season. Additionally, there are likely to be six hitters who strike out at an above-league-average rate.
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool actually has Burnes has the eighth-most popular pitcher on DraftKings and sixth on Yahoo, despite having a top-4 likelihood of being a top-2 scoring pitcher on the slate. Burnes deserves consideration as a lead cash game pitcher (H2Hs, 50/50s, 3-mans, etc.) on the featured slate, and he is definitely going underrepresented in tournaments.
Late Slate Pitching Target: RHP Lance Lynn vs. Colorado Rockies — 3.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,900 | FanDuel $9,900 | Yahoo $34
Tonight RHP Lance Lynn is looking like a strong candidate as the SP2 du jour on both DraftKings and FanDuel. This has been a rough year for the 36-year-old, who first debuted in The Show back in 2011 with the St. Louis Cardinals. Last year, Lynn had a rough start to the season — but he finished strong and ended up sliding in under the wire with a 3.99 ERA. This season he has already allowed 32 home runs, which is the most of his lengthy career, and he currently leads the league in this ignominious category by half a dozen longballs.
In his two starts for the Dodgers, Lynn has tossed 13 combined innings, allowing four runs on a trio of taters and adding 13 strikeouts and three free passes against the Padres and Athletics. The new uniform and change of scenery are no guarantee of another good performance; however, a matchup with the Rockies does have the venerable veteran well positioned for success tonight.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Atlanta Braves at RHP Tylor Megill — 5.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
The beauty of having so many expensive pitchers on the docket tonight is that an equally spendy lineup like Atlanta is coming in right around the double-digit popularity mark on the three main MLB DFS sites. While this still makes them one of the two “most popular options” tonight, at just 9% to 11%, we can consider them to be underrepresented in tournaments.
Over his last five starts, RHP Tylor Megill has a 7.36 ERA and a dozen walks in just 22 innings. Even worse — or better, depending on your vantage point — that does not include three unearned runs during this timeframe. Elevated walks and below-average strikeouts are not a good combination for pitchers, particularly against Atlanta.
The projected lineup for Atlanta has a .201 ISO against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons, with a below-average 21.1% strikeout rate. Heck, the only hitters below a .195 ISO during this timeframe are outfielder Eddie Rosario and slick-fielding shortstop Orlando Arcia, and they are still above average with their .160-ish ISOs.
We are being asked to pay through the nose for Ronald Acuna Jr. and Matt Olson on DraftKings and Yahoo, and there is no salary relief from Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley and Sean Murphy. That is clearly keeping this squad out of most DFS portfolios, which in turn makes rolling the dice with risky pitching and loading up on these bats a fun tournament gambit.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Milwaukee Brewers at RHP Michael Kopech — 4.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
The Stokastic Top Stack Tool is sad that the game in Kansas City between the Cardinals and Royals may be rained out. However, Milwaukee is a fine evening sub-slate consolation prize on the road in Chicago against RHP Michael Kopech. This has been an up-and-down season for the 27-year-old erstwhile ace, with home runs being his key weakness. Over his last three games, two of which were against the power-challenged Guardians, he allowed five round-trippers in 15.1 combined innings.
The Milwaukee lineup is a case of haves and have nots, with the back of the order bereft of power upside against right-handed pitchers. The first five hitters profile well against Kopech, with Christian Yelich, Willy Adames and catcher William Contreras being the trio to target. Recent acquisition, Carlos Santana is a smooth switch-hitting option, and rookie Sal Frelick has been quite the offensive catalyst since his callup a couple weeks ago. The main fear is that Kopech will be able to go three-up/three-down against the back of the lineup, so that leaves the Brew Crew best utilized as one-offs on the featured slate.
Late Slate Target: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. LHP Austin Gomber — 5.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
Once again, the Dodgers will be facing a Colorado southpaw, though we should hope they score more than the two runs plated on Thursday night. This has been a rough season career for LHP Austin Gomber. In his three seasons with the Rockies, Gomber has been about as bad on the road as he has been in Coors Field. Going against a loaded lineup like Los Angeles tonight is certainly not going to change his fortunes.
Both lefties and righties have elevated power results against Gomber, and his 16.5% strikeout rate across the last 1,046 batters he has faced is not helping him avoid crooked numbers. Catcher Will Smith received an off day yesterday, so he should be back in the lineup tonight. Recent acquisition Amed Rosario is an interesting option if he lands in the middle of the order, but he has been pinch-hit for a few times since donning the L.A. blue, so keep that in mind. Mookie Betts, of course, is playing some of the best baseball of his career this season and super-utilityman Chris Taylor can be employed with a bit of a discount. Finally, Freddie Peralta and Max Muncy both have long track records of excelling against fellow lefties, so do not skip over them in stacks.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
Tonight Joey Votto is an interesting option in the sports wagering market. We can see from the True Odds feature on OddsShopper that the “true odds” of +474 for him to hit a home run, far outpace the current +540 line that is available. This inefficiency is like getting a 10% booster from the sportsbooks, without having to do any of the legwork.
This season of the 13 home runs allowed by RHP Johan Oviedo, 11 have been courtesy of opposite-handed hitters. This jibes with his .194 ISO allowed to lefties this season and is nicely aligned with the absurd .327 ISO produced by Votto against righties in his limited appearances since returning from injury.
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Final Thoughts for Friday, August 11 | MLB DFS Picks
Good news or bad news? OK, so the bad news first, eh? Well, once again there is rain in the Midwest. The good news is that the two teams most likely impacted by this storm system are actually playing each other, so only the Cardinals at Royals tilt, in Kansas City looks like it has weather implications on Friday.
Before you finalize your MLB DFS picks, check out today’s Stokastic MLB Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock Shows, at 5:00 p.m. ET, brought to you by Sleeper Fantasy. New users sign up through this link and receive a first deposit match, up to $100. Full details here.
