Monday is a quick sixer with plenty of pitching options and a standard 7:05 p.m. ET lock time on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. It may sound repetitive, but again, the Stokastic tools are a great help in identifying today’s MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Let’s dig into the player projections and popularity for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo lineups for today — highlighted by a handful of strong Mariners plays.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Spencer Strider vs. Minnesota Twins — 3.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $12,600 | FanDuel $11,300 | Yahoo $59
Tonight will be the 49th career appearance for RHP Spencer Strider and his 36 start in The Show. It is going to be a warm evening in Atlanta, with game-time temperatures drifting through the 80s and humidity in the 60% range. That is a boost for batsmen but not enough to dissuade us from rolling with Strider, who is among the top 3 National League Cy Young Award winners as tracked by OddsShopper.
Over the last season and change, the Twins current collection of available hitters has produced runs (99 wRC+) and power numbers (.164 ISO) right around league average, though the 24.5% strikeout rate is the second highest in the league. The only knocks against Strider tonight are that the DFS salary algorithms have bestowed an apex-level salary, which leaves little room for “profit” potential. The 24-year-old leads the league with a ridiculous 14.5 strikeouts per nine innings, though his four June starts have been a little rough, with a 6.86 ERA and six home runs allowed across 21 innings. Of course, he still has a wicked 12.9 strikeouts per nine during this stretch, but it is still worth pointing out a little slippage.
The projected lineup for the Twins — excluding Jorge Polanco, who is on the injured list — has six different hitters who have struck out 28% or more of the time against right-handed hurlers this season. Even reaching back to last year still has four with a 29% or higher rate. Strider has the best odds of producing a top-2 fantasy score according to the Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool. This has him as the key foundational piece for cash game formats (aka H2Hs, 50/50s, double-ups, etc.) and ideally will keep his popularity at a reasonable level in the large-field tournaments.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Luis Castillo vs. Washington Nationals — 3.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $11,000 | FanDuel $10,600 | Yahoo $52
The optimizers are going to push Strider for his overall raw points and RHP Justin Verlander as a better point-per-dollar option with his discounted salary when compared to RHP Luis Castillo. Seattle spent the weekend in Baltimore, just around the Beltway from Washington, D.C., yet are traveling all the way back across the country to face the Nationals. Fortunately, upcoming starting pitchers travel ahead of the team, so Castillo should have had a night or two in his own bed, while the Nats flew up from San Diego after battling the Padres this weekend.
The Nationals put a lot of balls in play, with a low 6.5% walk rate and 21.0% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching since the start of last season. Of course, they have a 90 wRC+, which is the fourth-lowest run creation efficiency, and very little power, with a .138 ISO that is ahead of only the Marlins (.132) and Pirates (.131) during this timeframe.
Though Castillo has allowed two multi-home run games in his last three efforts, those occurred in Los Angeles against the Angels and in New York against the Yankees. Castillo is the obvious ace on the two-game night-slate, and he is arguably the best tournament option on the main slate if his popularity continues to stay below Verlander’s and Strider’s.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: LHP Andrew Heaney vs. Detroit Tigers — 3.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:05 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $7,100 | FanDuel $8,500 | Yahoo $41
The Tigers are semi-serviceable against southpaws, with a 93 wRC+ over the last season-plus, though that is still a bottom-5 mark during that period. One key is that they have slightly below-average 21.5% strikeout rate, with an 8.0% walk rate and .144 ISO that is just outside the bottom 10. Hey, that is actually lightyears ahead of their collective standard and advanced metrics against right-handed pitching, so it should be celebrated by fans of the Motor City Kitties!
Casual fans are not impressed by LHP Andrew Heaney, but that is only because the oft-injured 32-year-old has made just 140 starts, despite breaking into the majors all the way back in 2014. Injuries are an issue, but while he remains healthy, Heaney is someone to target for DFS. Strikeouts are the currency of the realm, and Heaney has piled them up at an above-average 10.8 per nine innings over his last 90 appearances, dating back to the 2019 season.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Baltimore Orioles vs. LHP Brandon Williamson — 5.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
The top stack honors are coming down to the Texas Rangers against LHP Matthew Boyd and the Baltimore Orioles versus LHP Brandon Williamson. It looks like the roof will be closed in Arlington, so that gives the O’s a boost with a warmer evening slated for Camden Yards, with game-time temperatures around 80 degrees and a 7 to 10 mph breeze out to centerfield.
Though Williamson is not as heralded as the other young arms for Cincinnati such as the injured duo of LHP Nick Lodolo and RHP Hunter Greene, he was a second-round selection in the 2019 MLB Draft by the Mariners before being moved to Cincinnati as part of the trade for Castillo last summer. After the pandemic canceled the 2020 MiLB season, Williamson needed a do-over in Single-A before getting promoted later that year to Double-A. It looks like Williamson could use a little more time in the minors, but with the cupboard mostly bereft of starting pitchers, the 25-year-old is going to get a few more turns in the rotation.
Somehow Aaron Hicks has been contributing with the Orioles after getting dumped by the Yankees. Though he is not particularly exciting, he is a cheap switch-hitter who makes full stacks easy to fit under the salary cap, and he should be towards the middle of the order tonight. Fellow switch-hitters Anthony Santander and catcher Adley Rutschman are the primary bats to target, along with Austin Hays if he draws leadoff duties. We could see Cedric Mullins get the night off with a lefty on the mound, and while he is capable against same-handed pitching, he did just return from a long stint on the injury list due to a groin issue.
Jorge Mateo is always fun due to his proclivity for stealing bases, along with gap power, and depending on how the lineup card is constructed, a discounted Ramon Urias could land in the cleanup slot. This is a malleable team when it comes to stacking, making them a strong secondary or short-stack option as well.
If the weather looks dicey, then pivoting to the Rangers or Atlanta Braves is the savvy strategy to mitigate risk.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Seattle Mariners vs. RHP Trevor Williams — 4.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool gives the Mariners a well-rounded representation in the various metrics. That makes sense, considering they have a very favorable matchup against RHP Trevor Williams. To his credit, Williams did hold the St. Louis Cardinals scoreless in his last start. That ended a six-game streak of allowing a home run, and he also ceded three or more runs in five of those, including four or more three times. Williams is better suited as a multi-inning reliever, but the Nationals are so desperate for pitching that they pushed the 31-year-old back into the rotation. They are also the fourth team for the journeyman in the last four seasons.
Williams tends to struggle the second time through the order, though the team tries to coax five innings from him in an effort to save its beleaguered bullpen. This season the righty has suffered a .201 ISO to 329 hitters, with same-handed batters holding the larger advantage, but a career track record of pain and suffering inflicted by lefties makes anyone with power in the Seattle lineup worth a look.
Julio Rodriguez, Teoscar Hernandez and Jarred Kelenic will fill up all three outfield spots, but they are the trio to target tonight. Full stacks can be augmented with catcher Cal Raleigh and first baseman Ty France. Shortstop J.P. Crawford is going to be popular as the leadoff man, so skipping him in stacks is the most direct path towards differentiation from other Seattle supporters.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
One other DFS wild card to mention is RHP Dylan Cease, who has been locked in this month, with a 2.38 ERA, 32 strikeouts and only two home runs allowed in 22.2 innings. He is coming in at a discount to Heaney, and though he will be facing Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and the rest of the Angels, we know there is often an adjustment period the day after a team leaves Coors Field and has to play at sea level with the dramatic change to breaking balls and pitch movement.
This also makes Cease an interesting option in the sports wagering market with his 6.5 total strikeouts prop. Looking at the new true odds feature from OddsShopper, we can see that Cease is at a fair price with -135 odds of recording the seven strikeouts needed to reach the over, though more books will be posting odds later this morning, and we can do some line shopping to see if any site offers a better figure.
In his last five starts, Cease has recorded 9, 10, 7, 6 and 8 strikeouts, and while the latter two were a home-and-home set against Detroit, the most recent pair were a game against the Rangers in his last start and a visit to Los Angeles, squaring off against the Dodgers when he recorded his season-high 10 whiffs.
Did you know that you can get one free month of Stokastic+ Platinum for signing up and making your first bet at BetMGM? Claim here today!
Final Thoughts for Monday, June 26 | MLB DFS Picks
Once again Baltimore and New York are on the list of risky games, though with the forecast this far out, it is hard to know if the venue will be directly impacted. However, there will likely be storms during the game window for both cities. Check back in with the usual DFS weather sources prior to lock to facilitate a more informed decision.
Before you finalize your MLB DFS picks, check out today’s Stokastic MLB Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock Shows, at 5:00 p.m. ET, brought to you by PrizePicks.
