The work week begins with a smaller six-game MLB slate, and the value is strong for prop betting. Right now a select few matchups in particular are producing the highest EVs in MLB Bet Pro‘s across a multitude of sportsbooks. To help us iron everything out and get the best MLB player props, we will take a look at the top of the MLB Bet Pro board and see what plays are beating the market — which include a star catcher getting a star line that he may not deserve tonight.
But remember that these are just three of the +EV MLB player props on MLB Bet Pro; the model has dozens of other options, which you can access by signing up now to get Stokastic’s Bet Pro offer: One trial month for $24.95 that gets you access to MLB Bet Pro, plus access to our Premium Chalkboard!
Free MLB Props From MLB Bet Pro | June 26
3. Colin Rea Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-134, FanDuel)
Strap in — none of the player props on today’s slate look great at a first glance, but MLB Bet Pro‘s data is bullish on all of them. Each has at least a 60% expected win rate and 5% EV at time of writing.
Rea is a textbook replacement-level pitcher with modest strikeout stuff taking on a patient Mets team. So why is the over the play here? Well, the main reason is the line dipping down to 3.5 strikeouts. Rea has gotten to four in eight of his 12 starts, and he has only failed to get through the fifth inning one time. Even though he averages just 7.8 strikeouts per nine, Rea only needs to go 4.2 innings to get to four strikeouts at that clip. The Mets’ low strikeout rate may be a slight downgrade, but not enough to discount a pitcher who is getting through the fifth inning basically every time he starts.
MLB Bet Pro projects Rea for 4.4 strikeouts tonight, leading to a solid 5% EV on over 3.5.
2. Justin Verlander Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-112, FanDuel)
Run back the Verlander strikeout under once again. It has been a pretty solid play on MLB Bet Pro this season, with Verlander essentially posting strikeout numbers that are career lows across the board. Now nine starts into the season, he has struck out seven or more just twice and has given up four-plus earned runs four times. And with a per-nine rate of 7.6 strikeouts, Verlander on average will need to get into the ninth inning to hit this over — which he has yet to do in 2023.
The two things working in Verlander’s favor are the matchup and his ability to rebound from bad starts. The Brewers have MLB’s third-highest strikeout rate and below-average power numbers, which make them one of the better strikeout opponents for targeting overs. And despite Verlander’s struggles, he has had an uncanny knack for following up a bad start with a good one — every time he has allowed four-plus runs this year, he surrendered exactly one in the next outing. However, even in those rebounds, he is still not getting to seven strikeouts very often, so MLB Bet Pro is projecting Verlander for 5.7 strikeouts and a 60% win expectancy for the under.
1. Adley Rutschman Under 1.5 Total Bases (-140, DraftKings)
There are certainly aspects of Rutschman’s matchup that set up well for an over here; Brandon Williamson is an inexperienced lefty who has given up a lot of power, Rutschman hits lefties a little better than righties, and this game has the best non-Coors offensive environment on the slate. That said, MLB Bet Pro still much prefers the under, giving it a strong 66% expected win rate and a still-rising projected ROI.
Though Rutschman has established a reputation in his young career as one of the better-hitting catchers in baseball, his power numbers do not match said reputation. His .149 ISO is subpar, and though he is hitting the ball in the air at an above-average clip, Rutschman’s hard-hit rate and exit velocity are slightly below MLB average. Most nights his best shot at exceeding 1.5 total bases is multiple hits rather than an extra-base hit, which he has only done in 16 of 71 games. All told, Rutschman has hit this over in 25 (35.2%). Even with the reasonably advantageous matchup, that is not a strong enough mark to play an over, even with the modest juice on the under at -140. MLB Bet Pro projects him for just 1.1 total bases tonight.
