Monday kicks off the work week with an entertaining eight-game feature slate beginning at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. As always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help in identifying today’s MLB DFS top stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. For DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo MLB DFS picks tonight, look to RHP Luis Castillo and the Seattle Mariners offense in all game formats.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Luis Castillo at Chicago White Sox — 3.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,300 | FanDuel $10,700 | Yahoo $50
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool likes RHP Luis Castillo as the key building block for cash game lineups tonight, and he is a strong tournament option as well. The 30-year-old veteran has had a bumpy August, with two of his three worst starts this season, but those two road games were sandwiched around a stellar six-inning, one-run effort with eight strikeouts against the Baltimore Orioles in Seattle.
In his 25 starts, Castillo has allowed more than three earned runs on just five occasions, with a trio of those efforts ending with four Ernies. The veteran ace is striking out 9.9 per nine innings and has a career-best 1.05 WHIP. We know that teams coming off a series in Coors Field often have difficulty with breaking balls, as those pitch types perform differently at normal elevation. Plus, the current iteration of the White Sox offense is missing Tim Anderson, who is serving a suspension, and Eloy Jimenez (paternity list) has been away from the team as well, though he may return for Monday’s game. Over the last 30 days, Chicago has produced the third-fewest runs in the league.
Castillo is also someone to target in the sports wagering market with his strikeout prop. There are no early lines at this time, but we can see on PrizePicks that he has an over/under of 6.5 punch-outs. While that is right around his median projection for tonight, I am interested in taking the over. We many not get a sportsbook line until the status of Jimenez is know, but my lean is that Castillo can be in line for 8-to-9 strikeouts.
The combination of his new baseline this season along with the 5,000 foot change in altitude for the White Sox from yesterday afternoon to tonight, looks like a reasonable confluence of factors to take the over of 6.5, so be on the looking for lines to be posted on the major books.
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UPDATE:Â Lines are finally posted on some sportsbooks and it looks like there are a couple giving +100 for o6.5 strikeouts. That is a good number and if you are able to find alternate lineups I would consider a “ladder” up to 9+ (aka Castillo records nine strikeouts). We have not often discussed the “ladder” in this space, but essentially it means when you feel particularly strong about a wager, look to the “alternate lines” which can provide access to higher upside. There is of course added risk, so a standard practice for something like today would be to take Castillo at 7+ strikeouts for “one unit” and then decrease by half for 8+ and half again for 9+ as a way to acknowledge risk and realize potential upside. This is a strategy that is more commonplace in football or basketball, where points, rebounds, yards, etc. can be more incremental. It does lend itself to strikeouts, though – for me – this type of opportunity really only comes up once every three or four weeks during the baseball season.
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Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Michael Wacha vs. Miami Marlins — 3.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,800 | FanDuel $9,700 | Yahoo $42
After missing six weeks with shoulder inflammation, RHP Michael Wacha returned to action by spinning a five-inning gem against the Baltimore Orioles, allowing just four baserunners and striking out five on 77 pitches. He has had six days off between starts, so he should be good for a workload in the 85- to 90-pitch range. This has been a career season for the veteran, with personal-best marks including a 2.68 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. The main knock is a lack of strikeouts, with just 7.7 per nine innings.
The salary is accounting for a strong outing tonight for Wacha, which leaves little margin for error. Fortunately, the Miami Marlins have been rather pedestrian on offense over the last 30 days, scoring just over four runs per game, which is in the bottom third of the league. San Diego is nearly a 2-1 favorite against RHP Johnny Cueto, and if Wacha is able to close out the fifth inning, he will have a strong chance for the victory and the associated bonus points.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Paul Blackburn vs. Kansas City Royals — 4.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $7,000 | FanDuel $7,800 | Yahoo $38
Tonight RHP Paul Blackburn has a strong argument as the SP on DraftKings and Yahoo while also warranting tournament consideration on FanDuel. There are some reports that RHP Kyle Muller could start tonight, but that does not seem likely, as he logged 67 pitches on Friday after being recalled from Triple-A. If Blackburn ends up being pushed back a day, file this analysis away for Tuesday, as it will remain the same.
Kansas City has been productive, with the ninth-most runs in the league over the last 30 days. However, the current salary for Blackburn does take that into account, and since a lot of the DFS world considers him to be a tomato can, the 29-year-old should not be particularly popular in tournaments. Blackburn has three quality starts in his last four outings, and across his last five starts he has a 2.10 ERA, 3.23 FIP and a 0.266 batting average against.
The main issue with Blackburn has been injuries and inconsistency throughout his career. Despite making his debut in The Show back in the 2017 season, tonight will be just his 62nd start. Control has been an underlying issue, but in 72.2 innings Blackburn has a career-best 9.2 strikeouts per nine. Take the salary savings with Blackburn tonight and hopefully a popularity discount as well.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: St. Louis Cardinals at LHP Bailey Falter — 5.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
The Stokastic Top Stack Tool is bestowing high marks on the St. Louis offense against LHP Bailey Falter tonight. On his best days, the 26-year-old is an average pitcher, and on his worst, it looks like he is throwing batting practice. He allows power to batters swinging the stick from both sides of the plate, with a .212 ISO over the last two seasons against 589 opposing hitters.
Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt are two of the best in the game against southpaws, and catcher Willson Contreras is not too far behind after finding his footing with his new team. Tommy Edman is a strong switch-hitting option batting leadoff who does his best work against lefties. Tyler O’Neill is also worthy of our consideration, and St. Louis stacks basically build themselves with the top five hitters in the order.
Evening Slate Target: Seattle Mariners at RHP Touki Toussaint — 5.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:05 p.m. ET
In 12 appearances this season, RHP Touki Toussaint has been very hittable, with a 5.17 ERA, 1.450 WHIP and an obscene 37 walks in just 50.1 innings. He does have 51 strikeouts in his 50.1 innings, but he is just challenging hitters and his stuff is not going to win out over the long haul.
Seattle is surging right now, and the Mariners have a six-game winning streak after wrapping up a three-game weekend sweep of the Houston Astros, during which they plated 19 runners. Toussaint is nowhere near the quality of JP France, Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown, so we will want to load up on the M’s tonight.
Julio Rodriguez is locked in right now, with 18 hits in his last five games, as well as five stolen bases. Seattle has a frontloaded lineup, with Eugenio Suarez, Teoscar Hernandez and catcher Cal Raleigh rounding out the preferred core four. Those looking to craft a five-man stack can consider Ty France or one of the discount dandies from the bottom of the order, but the talent level really drops off.
Late Slate Target: San Diego Padres vs. RHP Johnny Cueto — 5.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
UPDATE:Â LHPÂ Ryan Weathers is being recalled from Triple-A for the Miami Marlins in a “Remember me?!” spot against his former team. In three of his last five starts in The Show, four with the Padres and one with the Marlins, the struggling southpaw allowed three multi-home run games. This change in pitchers boosts everyone mentioned below, except for Cronenworth who merely becomes a stack-filler, instead of a desired target.
This is a good matchup for the Padres, who have scored 4.7 runs per game over the last 30 days. Veteran RHP Johnny Cueto is a fun story and an enjoyable pitcher to watch, with his unique windup and deception on the mound. However, the 37-year-old can only get so far with smoke and mirrors against big league hitters. In his last four outings, Cueto has been saddled with a 6.04 ERA, 6.76 FIP, seven home runs and just 17 strikeouts across 22.1 innings.
Look to the usual suspects from San Diego, with Juan Soto, Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Xander Bogaerts the core four to target. Jake Cronenworth and Ha-Seong Kim can be employed to round out full five-man stacks in this above-average matchup.
Final Thoughts for Monday, August 21 | MLB DFS Picks
There are no outstanding precipitation risks today based on the early forecasts. Of course, things can always change, so be sure to check in with your favorite DFS weather sources prior to first pitch.
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