Wednesday is a travel day, which means split-slate action, resulting in the six-game featured set locking early at 6:40 p.m. ET lock on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. As always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help in identifying today’s MLB DFS top stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. For DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo MLB DFS picks tonight, look to RHP Bryce Miller on the early slate, with RHP Gerrit Cole as the featured-slate ace. The Phillies are a top offensive option this afternoon, while the Rangers and Dodgers can be used as alternatives to the Coors Field Extravaganza.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Gerrit Cole at Detroit Tigers — 3.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $11,500 | FanDuel $11,100 | Yahoo $47
This is a good spot for RHP Gerrit Cole to craft a masterpiece and put some distance between himself and the other American League Cy Young Award candidates. Per OddsShopper.com, Cole is three steps ahead at -225, with Luis Castillo (+250) and Kevin Gausman (+600) lurking in the shadows. Cole currently has a 2.95 ERA, which leads the American League and is third overall among qualified pitchers. His 1.04 WHIP is fourth, and though the frontline ace has a borderline-elite 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings, he does have the sixth most in the league with 181, having not missed a start all season.
Detroit has been slowly improving this season, and while they are among the worst offenses overall, looking at the last 30 days they are within hailing distance of league average. Of course, the projected lineup has a 26.6% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching over the last season-plus, while Cole has a 29.8% combined strikeout rate over the same timeframe. The Yankees are -200 road favorites, and anything less than a quality start and half a dozen strikeouts against the Motor City Kitties should be considered a failure by Cole tonight.
Late Slate Pitching Target: RHP Ryan Pepiot vs. Arizona Diamondbacks — 4.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,800 | FanDuel $8,500 | Yahoo $36
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool likes RHP Ryan Pepiot on the late slate, and he is worthy of consideration as an SP2 on DraftKings and Yahoo for the featured slate. Pepiot just celebrated his 26th birthday, and with various injuries to the Los Angeles pitching staff, it looks like he will have a chance to stick with the big club through the playoffs. Last year in The Show, Pepiot had a stellar 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings, but the 6.69 walks per nine were troublesome. Things have improved this year, and in his two appearances as the “bulk” option, he has 11 strikeouts and just one walk across nine total innings.
Pepiot missed the first half of the season after suffering a strained oblique in spring training, but since returning in mid-July, he has worked himself up to a 75-pitch baseline. The Diamondbacks are far from an easy matchup as they look to secure a playoff berth, but there are not many options on a two-game slate, with one of the matchups being in Coors Field.
Early Slate Pitching Target: RHP Bryce Miller vs. Oakland Athletics — 3.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,100 | FanDuel $8,500 | Yahoo $41
Yesterday RHP George Kirby was scratched due to illness, and the team has not yet announced what they are doing with the rotation. If Kirby goes this afternoon, check out Tuesday’s analysis of this matchup. If rookie RHP Bryce Miller starts as expected, then he is one of the best options for the early slate. Oakland lucked out, with the Mariners forced to give RHP Luke Weaver a spot start — yes, the same Luke Weaver who was released by Cincinnati last week and who is on his fourth team in the last two seasons.
Over the last 30 days, the Athletics have scored the second-fewest runs in the league (80), which is three more than the slumping San Francisco Giants. The projected lineup for the Athletics has a 26.2% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers since the start of last year. After a bit of a bumpy stretch where Miller allowed six earned runs in back-to-back outings against the Red Sox and in Minnesota against the Twins, he has corrected course. In his last four starts, with an extra day of rest between each, he has put together a 2.14 ERA, 1.93 FIP and a .228 batting average against, with 20 strikeouts and no home runs allowed in 21 frames.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: Texas Rangers at RHP Denyi Reyes — 5.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
Tonight the Rangers look like a good team to utilize as a Coors Field countermove. On the mound for the Mets is rookie RHP Denyi Reyes. The soon-to-be 27-year-old first entered the MiLB system back in 2015 with Boston. He moved from the Dominican Summer League into rookie ball the following year. Since then he has bounced between Single and Double-A while matriculating through the Baltimore and now the New York farm systems. Last year he did get a shot with Triple-A Norfolk, which is the highest level of the minors for Baltimore. In 54 innings, he was disappointing with a 7.17 ERA.
The Mets signed Reyes this offseason, and he will be called back up from the farm system today to replace struggling veteran RHP Carlos Carrasco. To be fair to Reyes, he probably will stick around as a reliever next year, but for now he is someone to target every time his name comes up in the rotation for the rest of the season. Most projection systems have him with 6.5 to 6.9 strikeouts per nine innings, an ERA around 4.80 and above-average home runs.
Texas put up just two runs last night, but that should not dissuade DFS gamers from making them a primary stack tonight. The core four of Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia, Marcus Semien and Nate Lowe each have a sustained track record of elite power against right-handed pitching. Catchers Mitch Garver and switch-hitting Jonah Heim can be used to augment full stacks.
Late Slate Target: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. RHP Brandon Pfaadt — 5.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
The Stokastic Top Stack Tool respects the talent of RHP Brandon Pfaadt, but the rookie is overmatched against a veteran-laden lineup like the Dodgers. Pfaadt has shown flashes of upside, and he will find himself as a recommended pitching option next year, but for now he needs more experience and consistency. He is the second-best prospect in the Arizona system and a top-25 talent on most industry lists.
Four starts ago, the 25-year-old was knocked around by the Dodgers for four runs, getting chased before he could close the book on the fifth inning. In his next three starts, the budding ace had 18 innings and 18 strikeouts, ceding one home run and five runs total on his way to a 2.50 ERA, 2.00 FIP and a .200 batting average against. This is not going to be a walk in the park for the Dodgers, but they have a path to overtaking Atlanta if things are slow in Coors Field Tonight.
It is no surprise to learn that left-handed power is giving Pfaadt trouble, and Los Angeles has plenty of options who will hold the platoon advantage tonight. Max Muncy and Freddie Freeman warrant consideration as one-offs on the featured slate, and they are the key ingredients for any L.A. stack on the late slate. Up next is a trio of outfielders in James Outman, David Peralta and Jayson Heyward at varying salary levels. Of course, there is no need to skip former MVP Mookie Betts, who is having a career year, and catcher Will Smith always rates highly in projection models. The Dodgers are just outside of the top-5 stacks for the main slate, which does have some tournament appeal, and they will be underrepresented in tournaments.
Early Slate Target: Philadelphia Phillies vs. LHP Reid Detmers — 5.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:05 p.m. ET
August has been a rough one for LHP Reid Detmers, as he has been saddled with an 8.68 ERA, 8.25 FIP and a .312 batting average against, allowing six round-trippers in just 18.2 innings. This is the second-largest workload for the 24-year-old southpaw, who is at 120 innings.
Philadelphia sets up well against lefties, with Nick Castellanos, J.T. Realmuto and Alec Bohm all elite against opposite-handed hurlers. Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper both excel against fellow lefties, and not to bury the lede, but Trea Turner has regained his confidence and worked his way back up towards the top of the order. Temperatures will be in the mid-80s this afternoon, and Bohm stands out on OddsShopper with +475 “true odds” to hit a home run, but sportsbooks are currently offering a +520 figure. This inefficiency is like getting an 8% profit booster without doing any of the legwork to chase it down.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
This afternoon going against RHP Cristopher Sanchez in the sports wagering market, seems like a savvy strategy. Currently Sanchez has +125 to stay under 17.5 outs. Looking at the True Odds feature on OddsShopper, we can see the -102 line for him to surpass this milestone means this line is inefficient by nearly to 8%. While there is basically a 50/50 chance of Sanchez failing to close out the sixth inning and earn the 18 outs for the over, this wager has excellent expected ROI on a longer time horizon.
Sanchez has closed the book on the sixth inning in his last three starts, but he has been wildly efficient, getting that done on 83 and 78 pitches in the last two games. In his last eight outings, he has fallen short of tonight’s milestone four times. Currently he is projected for 16.7 outs, which gives a little wiggle room if the Angels bats can knock him around early.
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Final Thoughts for Wednesday, August 30 | MLB DFS Picks
Weather is looking good again on Wednesday. There could always be something unexpected popping up, so be sure to check in with your favorite DFS weather resource prior to first pitch of the many start times today.
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