Thursday the MLB will be doing battle against the NFL for viewers, which is resulting in a six-game, front-loaded featured slate locking at 6:40 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. As always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help in identifying today’s MLB DFS top stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Tonight LHP Eduardo Rodriguez is a fine pitching selection who is not getting a lot of love, and the Atlanta offense looks poised to flirt with double-digit runs.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Eduardo Rodriguez at New York Yankees — 4.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,900 | FanDuel $9,100 | Yahoo $43
This does not look like the perfect spot by any stretch of the imagination. The mix of LHP Eduardo Rodriguez carrying a high salary, being on the road and against a team with a 4.9 implied run total, well, these are not the ingredients one would expect to see in a recipe for success. However, the combination of these factors is keeping The Masses at bay in tournaments, according to the Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool.
Over the last 30 days, the Yankees have scored the third-fewest runs in the league, and their 27.6% strikeout rate is the highest by far during this timeframe. Tonight’s projected lineup should have at least five or six hitters who have posted an above-average strikeout rate against lefties over the last two seasons.
Even including games against the Red Sox in Boston and a home game against the Houston Astros, where Rodriguez allowed six and four earned runs, he has a stellar 3.50 ERA and 3.65 FIP, along with a palatable .261 batting average against. Rodriguez is producing around a strikeout per inning, and he profiles well against the New York bats. Keep in mind some of the implied run total is also earmarked for the sketchy Detroit bullpen.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Luis Castillo at Tampa Bay Rays — 3.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $11,000 | FanDuel $10,300 | Yahoo $48
On Saturday, RHP Luis Castillo was knocked around by the Mets in New York, ceding two home runs and five earned runs while only striking out two. Though this was arguably the worst outing of the season for Castillo, he has allowed more than four runs only three times through his 28 starts. This has otherwise been a career year for the 30-year-old ace, and he has the second-best odds (+375) to land the American League Cy Young Award, behind only frontrunner Gerrit Cole (-365) per OddsShopper.com.
It is never fun facing the Rays, as they have one of the deepest lineups in the league and very few holes. However, the offense does take a hit with Wander Franco currently suspended, shortstop Taylor Walls dinged up and super-sub Manuel Margot on the injured list. There will likely be at least five hitters in the lineup tonight that strike out at an above-average rate against right-handed pitching. Seattle is actually a -135 road favorite in this matchup, which indicates it is not a completely impossible task for Castillo to come in and author a quality start with half a dozen strikeouts.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: LHP Carlos Rodon vs. Detroit Tigers — 3.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $7,500 | FanDuel $7,400 | Yahoo $33
In an odd twist, several DFS sites have Carlos Rodon with the best fantasy projection among all starting pitchers tonight. That seems aggressive in my estimation, though I do understand the fantasy-point-per-dollar appeal. In his last seven starts, Rodon has an abysmal 5.85 ERA and a 7.03 FIP, though the .235 batting average against is excellent. During these 32.1 innings, he has 29 strikeouts but nine home runs, including three multi-home run games.
The Tigers have improved to bad, which is a big step up from the unmitigated disaster of an offense that we saw for the first half of the season. Now they have turned things over to their youngsters, so the biggest knock is inexperience. Spencer Torkelson is finally playing like he was worthy of being the first overall selection in the 2020 MLB Draft, and catcher Jake Rogers and infielder Andy Ibanez have been surprisingly effective against southpaws this season. Rodon makes the most sense on the two-pitcher sites, but this is a “both-sideser” where we can put out an insurance stack or two with the aforementioned Tigers if the mega-popularity that is currently projected for Rodon holds or increases throughout the day.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: Atlanta Braves vs. RHP Adam Wainwright — 7.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
It just feels bad analyzing the results for RHP Adam Wainwright this season. Clearly, he went one year too long, but after he had a 3.71 ERA last year, which was actually his highest since the start of the pandemic, nobody could have seen this dramatic of a drop-off in what was expected to be more of a nostalgic farewell tour.
From 2020 through last year, Wainwright made 74 starts, logging 463.2 innings, a 3.34 ERA, 3.72 FIP and a 33-22 record. Of course, the strikeouts were down, but he also had SIX complete games in this stretch. This year has been an abomination, with an 8.10 ERA and a 5.90 FIP. Even worse, in his last 10 starts, Wainwright has allowed six or more runs on half a dozen occasions, with 10 home runs and 26 total extra-base hits. In nine of these games, he has recorded three or fewer strikeouts.
Take a moment and remember how good Waino has been over the last 20 years and his outstanding 2.83 ERA in 114.1 playoff innings. Then feel free to roster anyone and everyone in an Atlanta uniform tonight, up to and including the bat boy and manager.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Chicago Cubs vs. RHP Ryne Nelson — 4.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
After being sent down to the minors, RHP Ryne Nelson has been recalled in an effort to boost the Arizona rotation. Of course, expectations of this are not particularly high, as he was sent back down to “work on things” after consistently underperforming in The Show. Power has been a major issue for the former second-round selection in the 2019 MLB Draft. This season he has allowed a .231 ISO in 274 same-handed matchups, and lefties have gotten him for a .237 ISO in 266 plate appearances. The low 15.2% combined strikeout rate makes it hard to work out of jams on his own.
The middle of the Chicago lineup is loaded with power bats who have had sustained success this season against right-handed pitching. Jeimer Candelario (.241 ISO, 386 plate appearances), Cody Bellinger (.219, 302 PAs), and Seiya Suzuki (.208 ISO, 348 PAs) are the trio to target. Switch-hitter Ian Happ and shortstop Dansby Swanson can be used to round out full stacks. Christopher Morel is also a strong option, but he does not always make the lineup card these days.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
Young LHP Braxton Garrett is a talented pitcher, but his strikeouts are not at the level of a frontline starter. Tonight he faces the Dodgers, and we can look to pick on him in the sports wagering market for his strikeout prop. Looking at the True Odds feature on OddsShopper, we can see the -149 is slightly better than the -144 line currently available for the under on 4.5 strikeouts.
Garrett has three or fewer strikeouts in four of his last five starts, and he has thrown more than 81 pitches only once in this stretch. Tonight he is going against the Dodgers, and their projected lineup has only a 17.0% strikeout rate this season against southpaws. While this is not as exciting and sexy a bet as home runs or “laddering up” props for a strikeout artist in a tasty matchup, this wager has a solid 61% chance of winning and can be used as a solo wager or a foundational leg of a parlay to create higher upside.
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Final Thoughts for Thursday, September 7 | MLB DFS Picks
There is a chance of light rain in New York, but the overall coverage is sporadic, so there is only a low delay risk and postponement is unlikely.
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