Wednesday is a travel day, which means a variety of afternoon MLB DFS action, culminating in a four-game featured slate at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. As always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help in identifying today’s MLB DFS top stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Even with just eight teams in action for the biggest tournaments, there are three solid pitching options in veteran Kevin Gausman, breakout lefty Justin Steele and rookie Bobby Miller.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Sept. 20
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Justin Steele vs. Pittsburgh Pirates — 3.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,900 | FanDuel $10,800 | Yahoo $46
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool has LHP Justin Steele rating out slightly ahead of RHP Kevin Gausman, who will be pitching in Yankee Stadium tonight. Steele is at home in Wrigley Field against the visiting Pittsburgh Pirates, and between the Cubs being -170 favorites and the young lefty’s salary discount, it does make sense. This is a three-horse race at the top, and we are really just splitting hairs.
Tonight will be just the 62nd start in The Show for Steele, but he currently rates out second in the National League Cy Young Award race at +1000, behind only presumptive favorite Blake Snell (-1900). Steele made his first All-Star team this season, and he currently leads the league with an 80% win rate (16-4) and a league-low 0.70 home runs per nine innings among all qualified starters.
Though his 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings are a tick below his 9.2 career mark, he has cut his walk rate in half from last year, with a stellar 1.9 per nine innings. Pittsburgh is playing out the string on this season, and the Pirates’ regular lineup regularly features four or five rookies. That inexperience bodes well for Steele, who is one of the best lefties in the game.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Bobby Miller vs. Detroit Tigers — 3.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,700 | FanDuel $8,800 | Yahoo $41
Rookie RHP Bobby Miller has been tremendous this season, and he has been one of the more consistent members of the rotation since being called up. The only thing that should give DFS gamers pause is that he is at a career-high 121.2 innings and the Dodgers are going to need him for a deep playoff run. Miller has thrown 91, 99 and 96 pitches in his three most recent starts, so this is not a major concern, but if things go sideways early, a quick hook could send him to the showers early.
Los Angeles has already clinched the National League West title, and even with the current five-game winning streak, the Dodgers are still 3.5 games behind Atlanta for homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. It makes sense that Miller has a soft cap of around 90 pitches or six innings of work, whichever comes first. This is reflected in the salary and really is more a reminder that his upside is semi-limited to efficiency tonight.
Technically, the Detroit Tigers have not been officially eliminated from the postseason, but they are the next American League team that will suffer that fate, with the Athletics, Royals, White Sox and Angels falling ahead of them. After rolling off four consecutive wins for the second time in three weeks, the Motor City Kitties have dropped the first two games of this series and are staring at -245 odds of being swept by the Dodgers.
Early Slate Pitching Thoughts
George Kirby at Oakland Athletics — 3.2 implied runs: Currently, the Mariners are -250 favorites to win this afternoon, which would be a sweep of the Athletics in Oakland. In his second season, Kirby has posted a top-25 campaign and also received his first All-Star nomination. The A’s are on a six-game skid, having scored only 10 runs during this span.
Lucas Giolito at Kansas City Royals — 4.2 implied runs: After allowing a trio of taters in three consecutive starts, Giolito shut out the Rangers for seven innings in Cleveland in his last appearance. He also had a season-high 12 strikeouts, and while he is not going to duplicate that effort this afternoon, a quality start and half a dozen whiffs are attainable. The Royals have been a chaotic offense in that they seem to either barely create any runs or pop off for double digits. The projected lineup for this afternoon’s matchup has a 24.5% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the last two seasons, with four players having a 26.9% rate or higher. That gives Giolito access to fantasy upside, which helps mitigate the concerns about his recent form.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. RHP Reese Olson — 5.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
The Dodgers just keep chugging along, and it seems nothing is going to slow down their offense. This season they have the second-most runs, home runs and on-base percentage, trailing only Atlanta in each of these categories. Former MVPs Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman are locked in at the plate right now, and Max Muncy is hitting out of his mind, including leading his squad to a 3-2, ninth-inning victory, getting a two-out base hit to push Betts across the plate.
J.D. Martinez is healthy, and while he is still knocking off the rust, he provided another big bat in the heart of the order. Plus, we can turn to a trio of lefties in the outfield, with James Outman, Jason Heyward and David Peralta all holding the platoon advantage tonight. But wait, there’s more — catcher Will Smith has been a steady presence in the lineup, and he is coming off his first All-Star appearance.
Rookie RHP Reese Olson is the sacrificial lamb tonight, and he has his work cut out for him if he wants to avoid an early exit. Advantage Dodgers.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Milwaukee Brewers at LHP Zack Thompson — 4.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:45 p.m. ET
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool is highlighting the Brewers again, just two days after recommending them against RHP Adam Wainwright, who managed to secure his 200th victory by holding Milwaukee scoreless for seven innings and in the process improving his ERA to an even 7.40. Kudos to him for reaching this milestone as a capper on a phenomenal career.
Last night the Brewers scored seven runs, and we should see more of the same against LHP Zack Thompson. The 25-year-old has been decent this year, but he has just eight starts among his 45 big league appearances. In his last two starts, Thompson has issued five free passes and allowed seven runs in 10 innings. He does have 10 strikeouts during this stretch, but that is not going to be enough to save him against a veteran squad.
The Brewers will be rolling out as many right-handed hitters as they can muster, though that increases the pinch-hit risks with Christian Yelich, Sal Frelick, Rowdy Tellez and Brice Turang watching from the dugout. Willy Adames, catcher William Contreras and Mark Canha are regulars, along with switch-hitter Carlos Santana, so it is unlikely they are lifted for a pinch-hitter if a right-handed reliever enters the game.
This quartet should be at the top of the order, and they are the core building blocks of any Milwaukee stack. Outfielder Tyrone Taylor is a discount dandy, though he is a likely pinch-hit candidate for either Yelich or Frelick.
Early Slate Stacking Thoughts
San Diego Padres vs. RHP Chase Anderson — 5.5 implied runs: Anderson has an 8.16 ERA this season outside of Coors Field. Need you know more?
Seattle Mariners at RHP Joey Estes — 5.0 implied runs: Estes is the 14th-ranked prospect in the A’s farm system, and he profiles for 6.6 strikeouts and 1.62 home runs per nine innings in The Show. Enjoy!
Cleveland Guardians at RHP Zack Greinke — 5.1 implied runs: Greinke is stinky at this point in his career.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
Gunnar Henderson is someone to consider in the sports wagering market this afternoon. The True Odds feature on OddsShopper shows that Henderson has +395 “true odds” of hitting a home run, while this wager is currently available at +425, which is an indication of a nearly 6% inefficient line.
Over his last 30 days, Henderson has a massive .304 ISO in lefty-righty matchups, and he should be batting near the top of the order against RHP Cristian Javier. This has been a down season for Javier, and he has been susceptible to opposite-handed hitters, ceding a .215 ISO to lefties, along with 12 of his career-worst 25 home runs.
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Final Thoughts for Wednesday, September 20 | MLB DFS Picks
There are precipitation concerns in the Midwest, with Chicago and St. Louis being impacted today. The Windy City looks like they will avoid anything too serious, but St. Louis does have the potential for a postponement. Fortunately, gamers will still be able to pivot to the Dodgers vs. Tigers as an escape route, with that final game of the night getting underway 2.5 hours after the Midwest matchup.
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