MLB pick’em today turns to Underdog Fantasy for the best value on the slate, though several of the top plays are coming from the early-afternoon games. As such, today’s Underdog MLB pick has just two plays for a standard payout of 3x (both have to hit to cash that). Originally, Eury Perez under 6.5 strikeouts was also popping as a top play in the later window, but Underdog has since taken that off the board. If it returns, that one is getting a solid projection as well. With that said, let’s dive into some MLB pick’em action.
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MLB Underdog Pick’em Predictions | Sept. 20
Ryan McMahon O/U 0.5 Total Bases
McMahon has fallen off the table from the All-Star production he was putting up in the first half of the season. As a result, he is getting a favorable 0.5 number here rather than the 1.5 he saw from April through July. And though McMahon only has hits in half his starts this month and the Rockies are away from Coors, this is a good spot for him against Seth Lugo.
The big boost here is Lugo being a somewhat vulnerable righty, as McMahon is posting an .852 OPS and .268 batting average in the split, compared to .575 and .190, respectively, against same-handed pitchers. Lugo, meanwhile, is allowing a hit per inning in the month of September, and McMahon generally bats in the middle of the Rockies order when he has the platoon advantage. That likely will mean two cracks at Lugo, and Stokastic believes that is enough to play the over here, projecting McMahon for 1.6 total bases.
Best MLB Underdog Play: Ryan McMahon Over 0.5 Total Bases
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Zack Thompson O/U 4.5 Strikeouts
A 1.464 WHIP is rarely a favored target when looking for pitching strikeout overs, especially when said WHIP is largely due to an elevated walk rate. However, Thompson is accompanying that with high strikeout numbers, so this play is on his ability to avoid walks just enough to stick in the game.
Thompson has eight outings of four innings or more (seven starts) since the beginning of August, and in those outings he has struck out 9.7 per nine and eclipsed 4.5 strikeouts in six of eight. That is despite the fact that his propensity to allow baserunners has limited his innings to five or less in all but one of those outings. Since he is fanning more than one per inning, however, Thompson only needs on average five innings to make it to this over, and the Brewers strike out more than league average. Stokastic is projecting Thompson for 5.4 whiffs, giving him a 54% chance of surpassing 4.5 tonight.
Best MLB Underdog Play: Zack Thompson Over 6.5 Strikeouts
