Wednesday marks the middle of the work week with a 13-game featured slate locking at 7:05 p.m. ET DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. As always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help in identifying today’s MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Let’s dig into the player projections and popularity for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo lineups for today, like the Orioles celebrating Luke Weaver Day.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Pitching Target: LHP Blake Snell at Pittsburgh Pirates — 3.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,300 | FanDuel $11,100 | Yahoo $46
Looking at the Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool, we can see that there are a plethora of pitching options at a variety of salary points. Towards the top we have struggling RHP Aaron Nola against the pesky Chicago Cubs in Wrigley Field as well as two better strikeout options in RHP Kodai Senga in a home matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers and LHP Blake Snell on the road against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Ultimately, granting Snell a slight edge over Senga makes sense. Snell has the better strikeout rate this season with 11.6 per nine innings, though Senga is not too far behind at 10.9 per nine, and he has the more favorable strikeout matchup. While it is always a rollercoaster with Snell, tonight will be the 175th start of his career, and it will be just the 15th in The Show for Senga. Keep in mind that Senga is far from a rookie, having played in the NPL for the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks since 2012 when he was just 19 years old. However, that is closer to Triple-A competition than the big leagues, so paying the slight premium for Snell makes sense.
Evening Slate Pitching Target: RHP Dane Dunning vs. Detroit Tigers — 3.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:05 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $6,100 | FanDuel $7,500 | Yahoo $37
The next duo to consider also doubles as solid evening sub-slate options. LHP Logan Allen in Kansas City facing the Royals has a higher strikeout ceiling than RHP Dane Dunning, though the latter has a better salary on DraftKings with a $1,900 discount and a stronger chance of securing the quality start bonus points on FanDuel. Dunning also has a $900 discount on the blue site. On Yahoo, the play is clearly Allen, with his $28 salary being enough savings to upgrade two batters. For the main slate, this duo is best utilized as SP2s on DraftKings and Yahoo, and they can be skipped on FanDuel.
Late Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: LHP JP Sears vs. New York Yankees — 3.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $7,100 | FanDuel $8,200 | Yahoo $36
Continuing with the theme, the third pair to consider for the late slate also works on the featured slate as wild card options. Initially it seemed like RHP Domingo German would have the easy edge, though his current form is dreadful, with a pair of negative-fantasy-point outings in Boston and versus Seattle. In these starts he has allowed 17 runs over just 5.1 innings, along with an awful five home runs. Prior to this dropoff, he did limit the Red Sox and the Dodgers, in a road start, to just one run each. The matchup against Oakland is always appealing, though tonight this is purely a tournament strategy for those supporting German.
On the other hand, LHP JP Sears is in amazing form, having allowed two or fewer runs in seven of his last eight starts. Home runs are a concern, but his strikeout potential may be even better than German’s in a neutralized matchup. Even better, he gets to take on the struggling Yankees, who are without Aaron Judge, which is a dramatic difference maker for their lineup. Sears is in play on the main slate as well as being the recommended target on the three-game nightcap.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Baltimore Orioles vs. RHP Luke Weaver — 5.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
Oh my, is it RHP Luke Weaver Day already?! The 29-year-old has been destroyed over his last four starts, with a 10.80 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in 16.2 innings. Now the fly ball pitcher is going to be going against the Batters of Birdland on a warm and humid evening in Camden Yards. Giggity!
Weaver has allowed a .262 ISO across 275 batters faced this season, with both lefties (.233) and righties (.282) getting in on the fun. The top 7 in the Orioles order are worthy of consideration, with Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander, Gunnar Henderson, Ryan O’Hearn, Adley Rutschman and Austin Hays being the preferred order of preference when pontificating positional eligibly, production, predicted popularity and power upside. Rookie Jordan Westburg is basically free on DraftKings, though he is all the way up to $17 on Yahoo in his second game in The Show.
Evening Slate Target: Texas Rangers vs. LHP Joey Wentz — 5.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:05 p.m. ET
Obviously loading up on the Dodgers against LHP Kyle Freeland and the Rockies facing RHP Michael Grove in tonight’s Coors Field Extravaganza is the way to go, but you do not need my blessing to take that path.
The Rangers are a solid countermove against LHP Joey Wentz. The 25-year-old southpaw has managed to lower his season-long 6.72 ERA by just over half a run in his last four starts, despite allowing five home runs and a dozen walks in just 20 innings. The Texas offense is just downright nasty, with Corey Seager and Nate Lowe hammering same-handed pitching while being augmented with a righty-heavy lineup. Now that Mitch Garver is healthy, he will be in the lineup most days against southpaws, along with switch-hitting Jonah Heim, which gives built in differentiation with a pair of sweet-hitting catchers.
Adolis Garcia and Josh Jung do their best work when facing opposite-handed hurlers, and of course, leadoff man Marcus Semien has been on fire for the last month. At the bottom of the order, Ezequiel Duran and Leody Tavares will provide diversification for the evening slate as part of a wraparound stack.
Late Slate Target: Tampa Bay Rays at RHP Zach Davies — 5.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool likes the Tampa Bay Rays, who are taking on RHP Zach Davies. Over his last three starts, Davies has allowed 21 runs (three unearned) in just 10.2 innings. Though he has ceded only one longball, he has issued eight free passes, and the resulting 15.19 ERA and 2.71 baserunners per inning during this stretch are likely to end up with the 30-year-old being released if this continues.
Checking in on the Rays is always fun, as they currently boast a roster with six players who have tallied double-digit home runs, with the injured Brandon Lowe and semi-regular Harold Ramirez sitting on nine each. Wander Franco also has nine, but he is third in the league with 25 stolen bases.
Tampa Bay leads the league in stolen bases and is top 3 for total bases, runs, home runs, RBIs, slugging and on-base percentage. Yandy Diaz (.916, 7th), Randy Arozarena (.883, 12th) and Isaac Paredes (.859, 21st) are all on the OPS leaderboard, making them prime targets, along with Franco.
Luke Raley, Josh Lowe and Jose Siri are among those who have double-digit home runs, with each strong candidates as differentiation plays. Finally, on DraftKings and Yahoo, switch-hitting catcher Francisco Mejia is in play as a catcher since he does his best work when swinging the stick from the left side of the plate.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
Not only do Arozarena and Diaz stand out in the DFS world, but they are popping via the new true odds feature from OddsShopper. Looking at their respective home run props in the sports wagering markets, Arozarena is available at +560, though with a +493 likelihood of a home run according to the true odds feature, we can see that he is getting nearly a 10% boost from this inefficient line. Similarly, Diaz can be found with a +600 opportunity after a little line shopping, and given his +545 true odds, that is like getting an 8% booster from the sportsbook, without chasing down any promotions.
Keep in mind that these are long odds, as are most home run bets — so looking for the best line across multiple sportsbooks can further enhance long-term expected ROI%, which is key in maintaining and growing a bankroll.
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Final Thoughts for Wednesday, June 28 | MLB DFS Picks
Tonight it looks like Boston has the most significant risk of an in-game delay, with New York at a much lower level. Neither game looks like any sort of a postponement risk, but as we were reminded by the semi-random rain delay in Baltimore last night, if something happens right over the venue, all bets are off.
Before you finalize your MLB DFS picks, check out today’s Stokastic MLB Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock Shows, at 4:45 p.m. ET, brought to you by Sleeper. New users sign up through this link and receive a first deposit match up to $100.
