Best Ball Summer is officially here. For those looking to take down some of the larger prizes like Best Ball Mania IV, stacking increases in importance due to the large number of entries in a contest. In a nutshell, stacking means drafting a quarterback and pass catcher from the same team. That way, when the quarterback throws a pass to that player, they both receive points. This particular article will analyze a few stacks that are coming off the board at an inflated price. Now let’s dive into a few overrated stacks for 2023 Best Ball leagues, using projections and Stokastic’s Best Ball rankings, while flagging players who are still worth a pick in best ball.
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NFL Best Ball 2023 Overrated Stacks & Picks: Dak Prescott
Dallas Cowboys
After finishing last year 12-5 and ranking fourth in points per game, the Dallas Cowboys parted ways with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. Instead, former failed play-caller and current head coach Mike McCarthy will take over. Under McCarthy in 2017, Green Bay ran 62.4 plays per game (20th) and passed 61.4% of the time (seventh). The most likely outcome here is a pass-friendly offense with less tempo and efficiency.
This doesn’t exactly bode well for Dak Prescott, who comes off the board with an ADP of 102.1. This is ahead of signal callers like Kirk Cousins and Daniel Jones. Last year, Prescott completed 66.2% of his passes for 7.3 yards per attempt. Both were inside the top half of the league but outside the top ten. With Prescott reluctant to use his legs following his severe ankle injury, he will rely on his efficiency to propel his success, but unfortunately, McCarthy’s offense has hindered quarterback efficiency. Our projections currently have Prescott ranked 118th overall.
As far as pass catchers go, CeeDee Lamb comes off the board at pick 10.3. Lamb posted an elite 2.39 yards per route run and has shown the ability to win in all situations. Michael Gallup posted a 0.96 yards per route run, but he’s been vocal about his injury last year. Now fully healthy, Gallup hopes to get back to his pre-injury form. He comes off the board at pick 129.7. Our rankings slot Lamb in at 12th overall and Gallup at 124th.
The team also added Brandin Cooks, who comes off the board at pick 82. He posted a solid 1.64 yards per route run despite essentially quitting on the Houston Texans. He is aging, but he doesn’t have to be an alpha in Dallas. He slots in at 63rd overall in our rankings, making him the best value of the group.
Tight end Jake Ferguson has an ADP of 207.7, but the logjam at the position makes this a tricky position to evaluate. My preferred way to attack Dallas is to forgo the stack and take one-offs for the receivers in best ball. Dallas does have a decent fantasy playoff schedule with Buffalo, Miami and Detroit down the stretch.
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Denver Broncos
Another team with a too-expensive quarterback, the Denver Broncos currently have Russell Wilson coming off the board with an ADP of 132.6. This comes in just ahead of Jordan Love, Matthew Stafford, Kyler Murray, and Kenny Pickett. With the exception of Murray, all three have room to eclipse Wilson in fantasy scoring.
Wilson’s 2022 campaign was atrocious. He completed 60.5% of his passes for 7.3 yards per attempt. His touchdown rate fell from 6.3% in 2021 to 3.3%, which could experience some positive regression. However, Wilson started to show decline in 2021 with Seattle, and Geno Smith essentially outproduced him in the same situation the following season. Furthermore, his rushing output has significantly declined with age.
Positively, Denver changed coaches, bringing in Sean Payton at head coach and Joe Lombardi at offensive coordinator. However, Payton has been flexible with his offenses, and he even embraced the run in his final seasons with New Orleans. Beat reporter Cecil Lammey believes this team will be run-heavy during 2023.
Similar to Dallas, the Broncos do have some intriguing pass catchers who warrant one-off consideration. Jerry Jeudy has an ADP of 40, which comes in as a slight value for us. He currently ranks 37th overall. Jeudy posted 2.18 yards per route run, which dwarfed Courtland Sutton at 1.55. However, it should be noted that Sutton is now another year removed from injury. He still logged 829 yards last year and his 93.3 ADP is quite affordable. Ranked 96th overall in our projections, Sutton comes in as a reasonable pick. The Broncos also draw Detroit, New England, and the Chargers in the fantasy playoffs, which looks decent overall.
One other problem with the Denver stack in best ball is the lack of clarity on the back end. Tim Patrick returns from injury, but Denver also spent a day-two pick on Marvin Mims this year. With an ADP of 163.9, the field seems to have assumed Mims will automatically take this role. This doesn’t even consider KJ Hamler, who remains on the roster after coming in as a day-two pick as well.
The same goes for Greg Dulcich at tight end, who people have penciled in as the starting tight end after reports surfaced of him playing the “Joker” role. But as Lamey argues, this doesn’t mean that Dulcich will automatically play starter snaps. Payton may even rotate at the position.
New Orleans Saints
Derek Carr comes over as the new starting quarterback of the New Orleans Saints with an ADP of 146.2. Like Wilson, he comes off the board just ahead of Love, Stafford, Murray, and Pickett. However, he faces some of the same limitations.
Carr completed just 60.8% of his passes for 7.0 yards per attempt last year. The completion percentage came in below his career average, but the yards per attempt were consistent, and his 4.8% TD rate was actually higher than his 4.4% career average.
However, the situation in New Orleans is likely worse than the one in Las Vegas. Carr will go from throwing to Davante Adams, Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow to Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, Rashid Shaheed, Juwan Johnson and Taysom Hill. Our rankings currently have Carr ranked 184th overall.
With that said, Olave comes off the board with an ADP of 19.0. Our rankings have him at 26th overall, but Olave posted an elite 2.42 yards per route run as a rookie. The concerns with this offense do not stem from Olave, and he is a perfectly fine pick in the second or third round.
Beyond Olave, the situation gets dicey. Thomas has an ADP of 92.8, which comes in just ahead of his 97th overall ranking. Still, Thomas hasn’t played in the better part of three seasons and is now entering his age-30 season. Drafters also have penciled in Shaheed as the WR3. Shaheed recorded elite numbers in efficiency metrics last year but also played less than 300 snaps.
From there, New Orleans messes with their personnel at tight end quite a bit. Johnson, Adam Trautman and Hill split snaps at the position last year. Trautman is gone, but Hill is still around, and although Johnson plays more, Hill usually comes in for the high-value touches. That can create a logjam in terms of fantasy points.
Like the situations above, taking a one-off Olave or Thomas when he falls may be the best strategy. Unlike the previous best ball stacks, New Orleans draws the New York Giants, Los Angeles Rams, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the fantasy playoffs. Combined with the offensive questions, New Orleans may fail to reach expectations in 2023.
