Monday brings a new week with a tantalizing 12-game featured slate beginning at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. As always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help in identifying today’s MLB DFS top stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. For DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo MLB DFS picks tonight, look to RHPs Kevin Gausman and Grayson Rodriguez as top pitching options in all formats, and the Padres, Mariners and Rangers are the offenses to stack.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Kevin Gausman vs. Washington Nationals — 3.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $11,200 | FanDuel $10,900 | Yahoo $47
Surprisingly, the salary algorithms have all assigned a reasonable cap hit for RHP Kevin Gausman in his matchup with the visiting Washington Nationals. The 32-year-old is having an outstanding season, and he is in the breakaway group for the American League Cy Young Award, with his +600 odds trailing only Luis Castillo (+275) and Gerrit Cole (-225), per data supplied by OddsShopper.com.
Gausman trails only Spencer Strider (13.9) with 11.7 strikeouts per nine innings, while his 3.23 ERA and 1.16 WHIP rank 12th and 20th, respectively, among all qualified starters. The well-traveled ace has allowed more than three runs only four times in his 25 appearances and also tallied 17 quality starts, which is the third most in the league.
Washington’s projected lineup has a low 19.4% strikeout rate this season against right-handed pitching, though the Nationals’ .120 ISO is among the worst power rates in the league. Gausman can generate his own strikeout upside, and with Toronto -260 home favorites to garner the victory, there are additional bonus points right there for Gausman to grab.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Grayson Rodriguez vs. Chicago White Sox — 3.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $7,500 | FanDuel $8,700 | Yahoo $41
Salaries are all over the board tonight for rookie RHP Grayson Rodriguez, with DraftKings being the most favorable and Yahoo the most punitive. The youngster has had uneven performances this season as he learns how to ply his trade in The Show. That is, of course, expected for most rookies, even heralded ones like Rodriguez. Looking at his last seven starts, we can see that, while his strikeouts have slipped to just 35 in 41.2 innings, he still has around one per frame for the full season. During this stretch, he has been otherwise stellar with a 3.24 ERA, 3.22 FIP and a .218 batting average against while ceding only two home runs and six total extra-base hits.
Chicago has struggled at the plate, with just 96 runs over its last 27 games (3.55), a 24.7% combined strikeout rate and a below-average 91 wRC+. If Rodriguez can mitigate the production of Andrew Vaughn, Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert Jr., he should be in line for a favorable fantasy score.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Bryan Woo vs. Oakland Athletics — 3.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $7,900 | FanDuel $7,800 | Yahoo $37
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool has been impressed by RHP Bryan Woo, who made the jump from Double-A to The Show this season. The 23-year-old was drafted in the sixth round of the 2021 MLB Draft, with teams impressed by his pitching skills but not entirely sure he would be able to maintain success against professional hitters in anything more than a relief role. Woo missed time with a sore forearm, so this will be just his second start since returning from the injured list. He is already at a career-high 103 innings this season, so expect the Mariners to continue easing him back, as they have just snuck into the American League West frontrunner role and will need Woo healthy to bolster the pitching options if they want to make another run in the postseason.
Last Tuesday, Woo made his return to action with 65 pitches in Chicago against the White Sox. He recorded three strikeouts in his four innings, allowing just one run. Tonight he should be extended to the 75- to 80-pitch range, though even if he is able to efficiently close out the fifth inning, that is likely a secondary ceiling for his workload.
Fortunately, he has a cherry matchup against the Oakland A’s, who have a 23.8% strikeout rate over the last 30 days and a paltry 83 runs for just 3.19 per tilt. We can still target Woo as a strong pitching option because of this matchup, but just realize that there will be a quick hook if he struggles.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Texas Rangers at RHP Tylor Megill — 4.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
Tonight this implied run total for the Rangers feels a little light against RHP Tylor Megill, and taking the over on the 5.0 team total when it is posted —Â and even the 9+ game total at +100 — is intriguing across various sportsbooks.
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Over his last seven starts in The Show, which was interrupted by a trip back down to face MiLB batters, Megill has a 7.67 ERA, 5.51 FIP and a .341 batting average against over 31.2 innings. This season Megill’s strikeouts have dropped from 25.5% last year to just 17.5%, which is further hurt by his double-digit walk rate and elevated fly ball rate.
It makes sense to target the hitters swinging the stick from the left side of the plate first, with Corey Seager, Nate Lowe and switch-hitting catcher Jonah Heim the best options. Adolis Garcia, Marcus Semien and the healthy-for-now Mitch Garver each possess .200 ISOs or better over the last two seasons against same-handed hurlers. Travis Jankowski, Leody Taveras or Ezequiel Duran can be used for discounted differentiation as needed or as one-off punts.
Main Slate Secondary Target: San Diego Padres at RHP Adam Wainwright — 5.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:45 p.m. ET
The Stokastic Top Stack Tool gives a hat tip to RHP Adam Wainwright for his many years of decorated success in the regular and postseasons. However, we are at the end of the line for Waino, who turns 42 years old on Wednesday. Over his last four starts, he has not fooled anyone, with a 14.73 ERA, a 2.381 WHIP and only 10 strikeouts across just 14.2 innings. Even worse are the five multi-home run games in his last 10 appearances.
Look to anyone on the Padres with power, with Juan Soto, Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr. and catcher Gary Sanchez the core four building blocks. Ha-Seong Kim, Xander Bogaerts and Trent Grisham can be used to augment full San Diego stacks.
Late Slate Target: Seattle Mariners vs. LHP Kyle Muller — 5.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
Seattle has been in this section several times over the last week, but the team continues to be gifted good matchups. Tonight the Mariners will be facing LHP Kyle Muller, who has had a rough season with a 7.28 ERA, a 1.89 WHIP and a couple trips to the minors. Since rejoining the Athletics, he has made two starts with a solid 3.68 ERA in 7.1 innings. He does have half a dozen strikeouts in these frames but also a trio of walks, and he has been dancing on the edge of danger.
The M’s are better suited to take on southpaws, but this team has been firing on all cylinders recently, winning 11 of its last 12 games (91.7%) and 36 of 50 (72.0%). Since July 1, Seattle is averaging 5.4 runs per game, which is among the best in the league. The key trio to target is Teoscar Hernandez, who is amazing against lefties, Dylan Moore from the bottom of the order and superstar Julio Rodriguez. The main knock is that these players are not likely to be close together in the lineup, which cuts down on synergy. Catcher Cal Raleigh, Eugenio Suarez and Ty France can be utilized to fill in the gaps for full stacks.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
Tonight we can back RHP Bryan Woo in the DFS world while also hedging our position in the sports wagering market. Currently Woo has a 6.5 total strikeout prop, and looking at the True Odds feature on OddsShopper, we can see the -120 line for him stay below this milestone is actually not as strong as his -127 “true odds.” That means this line is inefficient by about 3%, and with a 56% likelihood of the rookie falling short of the seven strikeouts needed for the over, this looks like a savvy play.
Even prior to his forearm issue, Woo had seven strikeouts once and fewer than that in his last five starts. He had three strikeouts in his return, and something around 5 to 6 tonight would be a positive development, but getting that seventh seems like a stretch given his recent return from injury, overall workload for the season and Seattle thinking about playoff possibilities.
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Final Thoughts for Monday, August 28 | MLB DFS Picks
Things look clear once more, with only Baltimore, Denver and Philadelphia looking at potential precipitation. All eyes will, of course, be on Coors Field today, with the Atlanta bats looking to be the preferred option in all formats. Make sure to check in with your favorite DFS weather resources closer to first pitch for an up-to-date forecast.
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