Friday brings the entire league back to action with a MEGA 14-game featured slate that beings at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. As always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help in identifying today’s MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. For DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo MLB DFS picks today, look to RHPs Zack Wheeler, Sonny Gray and Kutter Crawford as the top trio of pitchers tonight.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Pitching Target: RHP Zack Wheeler vs. Pittsburgh Pirates — 3.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,800 | FanDuel $10,600 | Yahoo $46
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool has identified RHP Zack Wheeler as a pitcher who should bring his backers joy tonight. There is some weather risk in the Pittsburgh area, so this game is worth monitoring, though it is the first game of the slate. And while we will not have the luxury of time to see a developing forecast, there are ample pivots that can easily be incorporated if things look dicey.
Wheeler has been solid this season, and over his last 11 games, he has ceded three or fewer runs on eight occasions. The Pirates dealt veteran Carlos Santana to the Brewers, so that means we should see Ji-Man Choi in the cleanup slot, along with his nearly 30% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers.
Wheeler does a good job generating his own strikeout upside, and his 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings are the second most of his career. The back end of the Pirates batting order is going to be one to attack down the stretch, as they will be running out Henry Davis, Endy Rodriguez, Jared Triolo and Nick Gonzales most days. This quartet has varying degrees of prospect upside, but they are all learning on the job and collectively have 230 career at-bats in The Show against right-handed pitchers.
Alternative options to Wheeler include RHP Kevin Gausman at home against the new-look Angels, RHP Max Scherzer hosting one of his former teams in the Big Apple and RHP Logan Webb coming off his worst outing of the season but in a decent matchup tonight against the visiting Boston Red Sox.
Evening Slate Pitching Target: RHP Sonny Gray at Kansas City Royals — 4.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,300 | FanDuel $10,100 | Yahoo $37
It is going to be hot and humid in Kansas City tonight with game-time temperatures starting out in the mid-90s, humidity in the 40% to 50% range and a strong breeze out to left-center. Even with all of those favorable conditions, but Royals still have only a 4.5 implied run total. If the umpires do not send out the bouncy baseballs, RHP Sonny Gray profiles well in this matchup.
Over the last two seasons, the current collection of Kansas City batsmen has a 24.1% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, with a slightly above-average .150 ISO. Gray does a tremendous job of limiting power, with a .102 ISO over the last 960 batters he has faced and a steady 23.6% strikeout rate. Yahoo has the best deal on Gray, which has him in play as one of the better featured-slate options. On FanDuel and DraftKings, the 33-year-old veteran is a solid tournament play on the full slate and one of the safer options on the evening sub-slate.
Late Slate Pitching Target: RHP Kutter Crawford at San Francisco Giants — 4.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:15 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $6,500 | FanDuel $7,200 | Yahoo $36
Tonight RHP Kutter Crawford is a strong salary saver on DraftKings for all slates, and he is in the mix on FanDuel and Yahoo as a late-slate tournament priority. The Giants did pop off for eight runs on Wednesday against Oakland, but they plated only 11 runners in the seven games preceding that 8-3 home victory. Though it is not the extreme pitcher’s park it was prior to the 2020 renovations, Oracle Park still suppresses overall offensive production.
Since moving into a starting role, Crawford has logged 40.2 innings, a 4.43 ERA, 4.24 FIP and a tick shy of a strikeout per inning. Over the last season-plus, the projected San Francisco lineup has a 25.7% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching and a paltry .139 ISO. Kutter will be facing a lineup laden with lefties, but as long as he can keep the baserunners to a minimum, he should provide solid fantasy production for his reasonable salary.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Toronto Blue Jays vs. RHP Lucas Giolito — 5.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET
Tonight will be the Angels debut for RHP Lucas Giolito, who was just acquired by Los Angeles to help with a playoff push. After a dreadful campaign last year, Giolito has somewhat course-corrected, but his strikeouts have fallen for a fourth consecutive season and while still good at 9.7 per nine innings, he is no longer elite. He is also on pace to allow a career high in home runs, and he has not been as consistent with locating his pitches, leading to more walks and, of course, baserunners.
There are likely to be only three lefties in the Toronto lineup tonight, though Brandon Belt and Dalton Varsho are each worthy of priority consideration in Toronto stacks. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has hit all 17 of his home runs against same-handed pitching, and that has been a weakness for Giolito over the last two years. George Springer is always in play for a dinger, while Bo Bichette and Matt Chapman are above average against same-handed pitchers.
Evening Slate Target: Minnesota Twins at RHP Brady Singer — 5.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
This has been a rough season for RHP Brady Singer after it looked like he was taking a step forward last year. To his credit, he has been better in June and July than he was in the early going, but the inconsistency is troublesome. Four of Singer’s nine starts have resulted in him giving up at least four runs, and the strikeouts have been all over the place, though at least the walks seem to be under control.
The weather and the lurking specter of crooked numbers have an equally uneven Minnesota offense looking like strong plays. Ideally Alex Kirilloff will be back in the middle of the order, as he is a ridiculous $2,700 on DraftKings, along with Max Kepler for just $100 more. The salary cap flexibility provided by this duo can also be employed on the main slate. Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton and hopefully Jorge Polanco can be used to round out full stacks. Young outfielder Matt Wallner is another player who has been overlooked by the DraftKings salary algorithm as well.
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool has identified the Twins as the best value stack of the day, which in turn is making them rather popular. Be sure to find differentiations at the other positions, particularly on the evening sub-slate.
Late Slate Target: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. LHP Brandon Williamson — 5.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
The Dodgers are a strong option on every slate tonight, and they look like a nice countermove against the Coors Field Extravaganza that is likely to crest over a 12 implied run game total. Rookie LHP Brandon Williamson has been solid so far this season, but he does not have the same strikeout stuff as the other young Cincinnati hurlers.
In 180 career lefty-righty matchups in The Show, the young southpaw has ceded a .230 ISO while only striking out 18.9%. The Dodgers are teeming with power against lefties, as Mookie Betts (.337 ISO), Freddie Freeman (.242 ISO), catcher Will Smith (.237 ISO) and J.D. Martinez (.250 ISO) have all been wildly successful in the extra-base-hit department over the last two years.
Max Muncy is an option with his light-tower power against fellow lefties, and Chris Taylor should find himself in a prominent batting slot while providing significant salary relief on DraftKings ($3,200) and FanDuel ($2,800).
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
Tonight young Michael Harris II is a long shot the sports wagering market with his +750 odds to hit a home run. However, there is some hidden value available in the current line. When using the True Odds feature on OddsShopper, we can see that his “true odds” should be closer to +640, and though that is still a stretch outcome, we are getting close to a 15% boost without having to do any of the legwork chasing down that type of promotional bonus from the sportsbook.
Ten of the last 15 home runs allowed by RHP Adrian Houser have been hit by opposite-handed batters, which bodes well for Harris tonight. Of course, cleanup hitter and fellow lefty Matt Olson can also be considered, as he too currently has an inefficient line with +280 odds for a home run but true odds at +256, which is a 6% expected value advantage.
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Final Thoughts for Friday, July 28 | MLB DFS Picks
There are a few weather spots to monitor, with the Mid-Atlantic region seeing the most activity. Baltimore and Pittsburgh will have humidity showers, with the window lasting from late afternoon to early evening. Delays feel inevitable, and a postponement for either game is certainly not off the table. We should have a better gauge on the actual impact closer to first pitch.
Atlanta has the standard summer showers caveat, which is the baseline for this time of year. As long as nothing lands atop the stadium, nothing more than a delay is in the mix. The New York Mets saw a late-game delay last night in the matchup against Washington, and there is the strong potential for a similar scenario tonight.
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