Thursday is another travel day, which means more split-slate action. There are a variety of afternoon slates starting at 12:35 p.m. ET, with the action culminating in a five-game featured slate with a 6:35 p.m. ET first pitch on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before you lock in lineups, several Stokastic tools can help identify daily MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Let’s dig into the player projections and popularity for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo lineups, including RHP Kyle Gibson in a road matchup against the dilapidated Detroit offense, along with his teammates facing the unproven LHP Joey Wentz, who is making his 12th career start.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Kyle Gibson at Detroit Tigers — 3.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $7,400 | FanDuel $10,200 | Yahoo $35
Tonight the three “aces” are either facing each other like Shane McClanahan and Dylan Cease, or in the case of Gerrit Cole, facing the red-hot Texas Rangers. Any of this trio could top the pitchers leaderboard, but it does feel like Kyle Gibson and RHP Tyler Mahle are a little bit “safer” — which, of course, is a relative term when it comes to MLB DFS.
This is a matchup we saw just on Saturday when Gibson cruised through the Detroit lineup on his way to 11 strikeouts while allowing only one run in 6.1 innings. We should never consider double-digit strikeouts for Gibson since even a strikeout per inning is asking a lot from the 35-year-old journeyman. However, this is the Tigers we are talking about, and their current collection of hitters has produced bottom-two numbers against right-handed hurlers over the last season and change in most standard and advanced metrics.
Gibson should be a popular SP2 on DraftKings and Yahoo with his appealing salary, but on FanDuel he is carrying a cap hit that is similar to the “aces” on the slate. As such, he is going to be underrepresented in tournaments. For those of you playing “cash games” (H2H, 3-mans, double-ups, etc.) McClanahan would be the preferred solo pitcher.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: Tyler Mahle vs. Kansas City Royals — 3.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,000 | FanDuel $8,800 | Yahoo $39
In the last 11 games, the Royals have produced more than four runs only twice (5 and 11). They are at least 11 runs ahead of the Tigers but still in the ignominious final four. The only hitters in the projected lineup with a .140 ISO or better against right-handed pitching are Bobby Witt Jr. (.164 ISO), Vinnie Pasquantino (.192 ISO) and MJ Melendez (.165 ISO). While this lineup is not exactly teeming with strikeouts, that is offset and then some with the lack of power and walks.
RHP Tyler Mahle is off to a strong start this season, with a 3.32 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP and a tick over a strikeout per inning. In his early years, Mahle was nails against same-handed batsmen, while lefties gave him fits. He also had some control and home run issues; those have been brought down to a reasonable 1.22 home runs and 3.24 walks per nine over his last 370 innings.
Early Pitching Target: RHP Shohei Ohtani vs. Oakland Athletics — 3.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:07 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $11,100 | FanDuel $11,500 | Yahoo $56
Once again the Oakland Athletics are the team to pick on, with RHP Shohei Ohtani standing out as the best option on the early slate. The A’s standard lineup against right-handed pitching features a middle of the order consisting of Brent Rooker, Jesus Aguilar and Jace Peterson. While this trio is among the best in the world at their jobs, they would be hard-pressed to find regular playing time on any team bound for the postseason.
Ohtani is once again among the league leaders in strikeouts, and his 12.2 per nine innings are currently pacing to be the best mark of his career. Through five pitching appearances, Ohtani has four quality starts, and that is a reasonable expectation for today. The projected Oakland lineup has fewer than 40 combined at bats against Ohtani, which means they are in for a rude awakening this afternoon.
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MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: Baltimore Orioles at LHP Joey Wentz — 4.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
LHP Joey Wentz is one of the better prospects in the Detroit farm system, though like many young pitchers, his learning trajectory was abruptly paused by the cancellation of the 2020 MiLB season due to the pandemic. Wentz was a first-round selection in the 2016 MLB Draft, being chosen right out of high school by Atlanta. The Tigers acquired the young lefty at the 2019 trade deadline, dealing away RHP Shane Greene.
Wentz did not see any action at the Triple-A level until last year, when he had 48.1 MiLB innings and another 32.2 in The Show. Most projection systems have him settling in as a standard “crafty lefty” who will struggle against power hitters swinging the lumber from the left side of the plate. The Batters of Birdland do profile well against southpaws, with both leadoff man Cedric Mullins and hotshot rookie Gunnar Henderson being above average in lefty/lefty matchups. Switch-hitters Anthony Santander and catcher Adley Rutschman also are approaching elite power status when swinging the stick from the right side of the plate.
Ryan Mountcastle and Ramon Urias have the platoon advantage and should land prominent slots in the batting order, with both being tournament targets. Differentiation can be found with catcher James McCann, who will likely be behind the plate, with Rutschman getting the designated hitter slot. Finally, if he is healthy and in the lineup, Jorge Mateo brings power and speed at a discounted salary.
Early Slate Target: Miami Marlins at RHP Kyle Wright — 3.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 12:20 p.m. ET
Last year, perpetual prospect RHP Kyle Wright nailed down a full-time gig and made 30 starts for Atlanta. There is nothing we can say to besmirch his 3.19 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and decent 8.7 strikeouts per nine innings — well, other than this is a prove-it year, as he struggled while getting limited looks with the parent club in 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021. This year he has produced a mediocre 5.93 ERA, 1.68 WHIP and 11 strikeouts in starts against Houston, in Kansas City and against Cincinnati. Most gamers will be focusing on a loaded San Diego lineup against RHP Hayden Wesneski, but do not dismiss the Marlins on Thursday.
Power is far from plentiful in the Miami lineup, though Jazz Chisholm is uber-elite, with a .284 ISO in his last 271 plate appearances against opposite-handed pitching, and he is all but assured to see five plate appearances from his leadoff slot. Garrett Cooper and Jorge Soler are veterans who can handle themselves in same-handed matchups. Finally, we cannot forget Luis Arraez, who was acquired by the Fish this offseason and is the reigning American League Batting Champion and currently leading the National League during his first campaign with the Senior Circuit. There is some precipitation risk with this game, but there should be enough time to get in the full nine without a postponement.
Final Thoughts for Thursday, April 27 | MLB DFS Picks
Today Atlanta is the only game that has an above-average chance to see a rain delay. We could see a late start, so keep tabs on the weather up until first pitch, with this being a 12:35 p.m. ET start.
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