Wednesday’s MLB DFS slate features numerous afternoon games, making for an intriguing opportunity for daily fantasy players. It is essential to monitor injuries and exciting matchups that could lead to high-scoring games. In this article, we’ll provide a comprehensive analysis of each game, pinpointing possible MLB DFS value picks.
MLB DFS Value and Advice | April 5
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Yankees
This game features two aces in Aaron Nola and Gerrit Cole. Cole struck out 32.4% of hitters last season and had a 2.77 xFIP, while Nola struck out 29.1% and had an identical 2.77 xFIP. Cole is the slightly better option, but Nola is over $2,000 less expensive on DraftKings, which offsets some of the risk of facing the Yankees. Cole threw 95 pitches in his first start, so we should not have any workload concerns. Nola only threw 72, but he was hit hard by the Rangers, so that was likely the reason. This game is expected to be low scoring, so lean towards using one of these aces in cash games.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Washington Nationals
Shane McClanahan faces off against Patrick Corbin in this game. McClanahan is coming off an impressive season where he struck out 30.3% of hitters and had a 2.60 xFIP. He threw 87 pitches in his first start, so he should be able to go relatively deep into this game. Corbin is one of the weaker pitchers on the slate since many teams have their aces on the mound (he is technically the Nationals ace). Corbin allowed a .235 xISO to right-handed hitters last season while striking out just 18.4%. It is possible that the Rays will have an entirely right-handed lineup. Yandy Diaz and Randy Arozarena look like the best options for the Rays in this game.
Minnesota Twins vs. Miami Marlins
Pablo Lopez faces off against Jesus Luzardo in this game, two quality pitchers in a pitcher’s park. Lopez struck out 29.8% of right-handed hitters last season compared to just 18.3% of lefties. Miami’s projected lineup has six righties, so this sets up nicely for Lopez. Luzardo struck out 30% of hitters and had a 3.11 xFIP last season, reminding everyone why he was such a highly regarded prospect with Oakland. The Twins are a dangerous lineup with plenty of right-handed power, but Luzardo held righties to a .286 xwOBA while striking out 29.2% of them last season. Minnesota is a decent tournament stack if they’re low owned, but Luzardo is not a great target.
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Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Bryce Elder takes on Miles Mikolas in this game. Elder did a good job limiting power in a limited sample last season, particularly against right-handed hitters. Still, he is one of the most unproven pitchers on the slate, so targeting the Cardinals is appealing. Nolan Gorman stands out as an inexpensive one-off with left-handed power. Typically, it is unwise to stack against Mikolas, but the Braves are always interesting if they are low owned.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Boston Red Sox
Mitch Keller takes on Corey Kluber in this game. Both pitchers are middle-of-the-road arms in a hitter’s park. It is expected to be cold, however, so that is a downgrade to bats. Still, Boston has a 4.9 implied run total, while the Pirates come in at 4.1. Keller did a good job limiting power last season, allowing just a .140 xISO to righties and a .121 xISO to lefties. There is a lot of upside in the Red Sox lineup, however, and they’re an appealing tournament stack. The Pirates are less appealing as a whole, but Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds at the top of the order are strong plays as usual.
New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers
David Peterson is a solid pitcher, but he is not a top-tier option on this slate. He did post an impressive 27.8% strikeout rate last season, so he does have some upside, but the matchup against the Brewers is not ideal. Milwaukee has a dangerous lineup that can put up runs in a hurry, and Peterson could struggle to contain them. That being said, his price tag is reasonable, and he could be worth a look as a contrarian option.
On the other hand, Corbin Burnes is an excellent option for tonight’s slate. He had an impressive 30.5% strikeout rate and 2.85 xFIP last season. Burnes is also priced reasonably at just $8,600 on DraftKings. The matchup against the Mets is not great, but his upside makes up for it. He should be one of the top pitching options on the slate.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers
Grayson Rodriguez is expected to make his Major League debut tonight, and he is priced at the minimum salary on DraftKings. Despite his struggles in spring training and his first start at Triple-A this season, Rodriguez is the No. 1 pitching prospect in baseball and has a ton of talent. He struck out 35.8% of hitters in 14 starts at Triple-A last season while walking just 7.7% and posting a 2.90 xFIP. Rodriguez is a high-risk/high-reward option, but he is worth considering at his price point.
Jacob deGrom is one of the best pitchers in baseball when healthy, but he struggled in his first start of the season. There are concerns about how deep into the game he will be allowed to go tonight, as the Rangers suggested they would limit him somewhat in the opener. Pay attention to the gap in ownership between deGrom and Cole, who should be higher owned. If the gap is substantial, deGrom could be a great contrarian option. It is also worth considering stacking the Rangers, as there are plenty of unknowns when someone is making their debut.
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago White Sox
Both Logan Webb and Dylan Cease are strong pitching options for tonight’s slate. Webb is inexpensive and is a reasonable SP2 option if you need one in that price range. Cease, on the other hand, is priced near Cole and deGrom, but it is warranted, as he struck out 30.4% of hitters last season and had a 3.50 xFIP. He threw 86 pitches in the opener, so we should not have pitch count concerns. This game has the potential to be a low-scoring affair, so both pitchers are worth considering.
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros
Cristian Javier is a great option for tonight’s slate, as he struck out 33.2% of hitters last season and the Tigers’ 2.8 implied run total is the lowest on the slate. Javier is priced at just $8,100 on DraftKings and should pull plenty of ownership. Eduardo Rodriguez is not a bad pitcher, but he’s going against the Astros on a slate this loaded with pitching. While the matchup isn’t perfect, the Astros are an appealing tournament stack — especially assuming the field gravitates to a couple of other spots instead. Rodriguez has never been dominant against left-handed hitters, so don’t be afraid to include Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker in stacks.
