Today’s MLB DFS schedule offers several value play options, and in this analysis, we’ll evaluate each game and spotlight the players who offer the most value for daily fantasy lineups. Let’s dive into some of the prospective MLB DFS value picks.
MLB DFS Value and Advice | May 3
Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals
Marcus Stroman takes the mound for the Chicago Cubs against Jake Irvin in his debut. Stroman has been decent this season, with a 3.77 FIP and less than one home run allowed per nine innings. Irvin has struggled in Triple-A, with a 5.17 FIP and a 20.4% strikeout rate. The Cubs have a solid chance of scoring a lot in this game, as they rank fifth in top stack percentage and stack score.
Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees
Shane Bieber has been a little disappointing this season, with only a 17.1% strikeout rate. However, he still has a decent matchup against the weakened Yankees. Clarke Schmidt has a 26.9% strikeout rate, but he struggles to limit power, which could be exploited by the Guardians lineup that has both power and batting average. Cleveland’s left-handed hitters are particularly interesting given the short right porch of Yankee Stadium.
Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox
Alek Manoah has had some early struggles this season, especially against left-handed hitters, which could be a boon for Boston’s six left-handed hitters. Nick Pivetta has struggled against right-handed hitters since last season, which could be exploited by Toronto’s right-handed power hitters. This game could see a lot of runs, making both sides viable for DFS plays.
Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox
Louie Varland projects as a solid pitching option, with a 13.5% chance of being a top-2 scoring pitcher and a 25.4% chance of being a top-2 value pitcher. He has shown an ability to strike out hitters and has a decent matchup against the White Sox. Dylan Cease is a talented pitcher, but he also has a difficult matchup against the Twins, who have power and don’t strike out much. Both offenses are projected to have low ownership, making them contrarian stack plays.
Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals
Kyle Gibson is a decent SP2 option with about a 12% chance of being a top-2 scoring pitcher and just 6% ownership. This game is mostly one for bats, however. Zack Greinke has shown a tendency to allow extra-base hits this season, which could make him vulnerable to the power and speed of the Orioles lineup. On the other hand, Gibson has had some power issues this season as well, allowing extra-base hits to both lefties and righties. The top of the Royals lineup could be a good source of power.
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Los Angeles Angels at St. Louis Cardinals
Shohei Ohtani is a top pitcher on the slate despite facing a tough matchup against the Cardinals. Ohtani has an impressive strikeout rate of 33.5% and a 2.58 FIP since the start of last season. On the other hand, Miles Mikolas has struggled to limit power this season. Left-handed hitters have a .233 xISO against him, while right-handed hitters have a .204 xISO. Although Ohtani is not available to roster as a hitter, we can still target right-handed power with players like Mike Trout and Hunter Renfroe.
Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies
This is a Coors Field game featuring two decent but not great pitchers. It has the highest total on the slate. The Brewers have a 21% chance of being the top stack, nearly double the second-highest team on the slate (Colorado). They also lead in the top value percentage and projected ownership. The Rockies are also a strong stack option, with a 12% chance of being the top stack and about 12% ownership.
Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics
Logan Gilbert is a strong pitching option following up Bryce Miller’s excellent performance. He has a 23.7% strikeout rate since the start of last season and a 3.44 FIP. The Athletics have one of the worst offenses in baseball, and in a favorable pitcher’s park, Gilbert could perform well. J.P. Sears has had trouble with right-handed power and allowed a .219 xISO since the start of last season and a .319 xISO this season. Players such as Julio Rodriguez, Ty France, Teoscar Hernandez, Eugenio Suarez and A.J. Pollock all look good as DFS plays if they make the starting lineup.
