MLB Player Props: Against the Grain Value in A's-Dodgers Nightcap (August 2)

The Wednesday split slate is creating some interesting leverage openings in the MLB player props market. In particular, one game is showing some strong value in unexpected ways, with a weak pitcher looking like an over play and a strong bat turning into a fade against him. Here we will look at that game as well as an afternoon matchup to find the best player props as identified by Stokastic’s MLB Bet Pro.

But remember that these are just three of the +EV MLB player props on MLB Bet Pro; the model has dozens of other options, which you can access by signing up now to get Stokastic’s Bet Pro offer: One trial month for $24.95 that gets you access to MLB Bet Pro, plus access to our Premium Chalkboard!

Free MLB Props & Picks From MLB Bet Pro | August 2

3. Hogan Harris O/U 3.5 Strikeouts

Few things in this industry are more harrowing than taking an over on a member of the 2023 Athletics, but the MLB Bet Pro model is liking Harris tonight in the late West Coast game. To be clear, Harris is a below-average pitcher who gives up hard contact and walks a decent number of hitters. However, he is also a better strikeout pitcher than a 3.5 line would suggest.

Harris is striking out 7.8 per nine innings and 20.2% overall, both perfectly passable numbers, and though the Dodgers lineup is intimidating, it whiffs at basically league average. Harris has struck out at least four in seven of 12 starts this year, including a few truly atrocious starts where he was pulled early. Four strikeouts are easily in the range of outcomes tonight, and given MLB Bet Pro‘s projection of 4.5 tonight, Harris over 3.5 has a 61% win rate and 2% EV at -150.

Best MLB Player Prop: Hogan Harris Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-150, PointsBet)

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2. Rafael Devers O/U 1.5 Total Bases

Keep in mind that this game beings at 4:10 p.m. ET, whereas the other two bets come from the 10:10 p.m. nightcap.

Though Devers’ power metrics are strong this year, this is going to be a tough matchup for him. He is facing a solid pitcher in Logan Gilbert on the road in Seattle — a pitcher against whom Devers is 0-for-5 with three strikeouts in his career — and Devers profiles slightly worse against opposite-handed pitchers. His slugging dips below .500 in these matchups this year and his ISO falls 34 points. Now, those are not massive discrepancies, but when one swing of the bat can defeat this prop, those edges have value.

Devers has hit this over in under half his games, and though he is averaging basically two total bases per game, the matchup with Gilbert is leading to MLB Bet Pro projecting Devers for exactly 1.5 as a median outcome. That is still earning the under a 57% win rate and 5% EV, making it the No. 2 player prop of the day.

Best MLB Player Prop: Rafael Devers Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120, PointsBet)

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1. Max Muncy O/U 1.5 Total Bases

There is a modicum of correlation between this prop and the Harris strikeout over, so these could be worth pairing together.

Muncy is one of the few lefties in the Dodgers projected lineup. Harris performs a little better against left-handed hitters, allowing a few more hits but much less power and striking them out at a significantly higher rate. Muncy is also quietly having a rough two-year stretch in terms of batting average, but since he is keeping his slugging up this year, his OPS is still a decent .807. His ISO is also elite at .288.

This is all to say that Muncy’s best chance at two-plus total bases is an extra-base hit. He has just 15 multi-hit games this season (in 84 starts), and he has exactly zero multi-hit games that did not include at least a double. All told, Muncy has 27 overs on 1.5 total bases, so his hit rate is a mere 32.1%. And with Harris limiting power but allowing average, this matchup works directly against Muncy’s modus operandi despite Harris’ poor numbers. MLB Bet Pro gives Muncy a 63% of staying under 1.5 total bases, giving this prop a slate-high 6% EV.

Best MLB Player Prop: Max Muncy Under 1.5 Total Bases (-150, PointsBet)

Author

Sam Smith

Sam Smith is a writer and editor with Stokastic and OddsShopper. He has been immersed in the world of professional sports data since 2015, while also writing extensively on the NFL for a multitude of blogs and websites. With Stokastic, Sam looks to blend his sports and editorial expertise with Stokastic's data to bring you the best fantasy information possible.