It’s an all-day Wednesday of MLB action, with games going from noon to 10 p.m. ET across the board. Here we are going to stick to the evening games and use MLB Bet Pro to find the best strikeout props for today, including some baffling lines on some mediocre-at-best punchout artists. Let’s get into the best MLB player props for the June 21 slate.
But remember that these are just three of the +EV MLB player props on MLB Bet Pro; the model has over 100 other options, which you can access by signing up now to get Stokastic’s Bet Pro offer: One trial month for $24.95 that gets you access to MLB Bet Pro, plus access to our Premium Chalkboard!
Free MLB Strikeout Props From MLB Bet Pro | June 21
3. Michael Kopech Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-126, FanDuel)
Now that Kopech’s pitch tipping is seemingly fixed, it does not feel great fading him anymore, especially now that his under is worse than even odds. That said, if there were a team to revert him to the 9.00 FIP pitcher he was early in the season, it would be the Rangers.
Texas is in the running for best all-around offense in baseball, ranking top 4 in weighted on-base percentage, ISO and hard-hit rate while striking at a below-average clip. The lineup also has a good number of right-handed power bats, which helps since Kopech allows considerably more power to righties and strikes them out at a lower percentage. Even on the road, these are the perfect bats to chase Kopech early.
Despite his improvements, Kopech has stayed under 6.5 his last two starts, and his 10.3 strikeouts per nine suggest he needs to go 6.1 innings to get to seven strikeouts on average. He has only gone that distance three times in 14 starts. As such, MLB Bet Pro projects him for 5.8 strikeouts, giving the under on 6.5 a 59% win expectancy and 7% EV.
2. Paul Blackburn Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+100, FanDuel)
There is just a four-start sample this year for Blackburn since he returned to action, and he is still getting stretched out, but results have been solid so far. He has struck out at least four in three of the four starts and really only had one bad outing — a five-run performance in five innings. His strikeout rate is 25.3%, which is 9 points higher than his career average, and that could indicate regression is on the horizon. Plus, the Guardians strike out at a bottom-2 clip.
All that said, MLB Bet Pro likes this spot for Blackburn, especially as a plus-money play. He projects for 4.3 strikeouts, and even if his 10 strikeouts per nine for 2023 drop to his career average of 6.3, he will only need to go 5.2 innings to surpass 3.5 strikeouts. He has already done that twice, and he may not even be fully stretched out. The Guardians are not an impressive offense, so the odds of an early exit for Blackburn are low. A steady outing will be sufficient for him to hit this number.
1. Jhony Brito Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100, FanDuel)
This strikeout prop is demolishing everything else on the board, with a 24% EV and 62% win rate at plus money.
If Blackburn is a 3.5-strikeout pitcher, then Brito should absolutely be one too. He is only averaging 6.7 strikeouts per nine and a 16.9% strikeout rate, which would both rank near the bottom of the league if Brito had innings to qualify. Also, he has only cleared this line in three of 10 games, and he has only gone more than five innings once — and it was in a relief appearance. His per-nine rate means that he on average has to go 6.2 innings to get to five strikeouts. Until he gets into the sixth inning, Brito is an under on 4.5 no matter the opponent.
The Mariners are a bit vulnerable to strikeouts, but MLB Bet Pro is still all in here at +100.
