We have six games tonight, with a lot of good pitching featured. It looks like a fun tournament slate that has a lot of different ways to approach it. With the help of Stokastic’s MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS ownership projections, plus the Top Stacks and Top Pitchers Tools, let’s dig into some of the best MLB DFS value plays tonight, including the Red Sox-Twins matchup.
MLB DFS Advice: Twins Left-Handed Power (June 21)
Game of the Day: Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins
This game stands out because there are different ways to attack it and find under-owned, high-upside plays. Garrett Whitlock has struck out 20.9% of hitters in his starts this season and has a 3.91 xFIP, and he is only $7,000 in a matchup against the Twins, who lead all of baseball with a 28.3% strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this year. He is only projected for 14.4% ownership despite a 19.2% chance of being a top-2 pitcher and a 26.3% chance of being a top-2 value pitcher in the Top Pitchers Tool.
Whitlock’s biggest weakness this season has been left-handed power, as he is allowing a .212 ISO and .182 xISO. The Twins have five left-handed hitters in their projected lineup, and four of them (Edouard Julien, Alex Kirilloff, Joey Gallo and Max Kepler) have an xISO of at least .150 against right-handed pitching since the start of last season. As a stack, the Twins are also fifth in top value percentage, and they rank fifth in Stack Score in the Top Stacks Tool. They project to be the fifth-highest-owned team on the slate as well. Given the inexpensive pricing on the two sides, there is a good chance that one of Whitlock or the Twins will end up being a very strong piece on tonight’s slate.
Similarly, the Red Sox hitters and Sonny Gray are both projected to be under-owned. This matchup is not as interesting since both sides are expensive, which increases the likelihood that they will both be mediocre and neither will end up being useful, but it is still worth noting. Gray has about a 25% strikeout percentage and 3.70 xFIP this season, while Boston’s active roster has a 109 wRC+. There is some untapped upside here even though you will have to pay for it.
MLB DFS Advice: Top Batters
Jose Ramirez (CLE): $5,000 on DraftKings
Luis Robert (CWS): $4,800 on DraftKings
Cal Raleigh (SEA): $4,600 on DraftKings
For more top hitters, check out our Top Batters Tool!
Jose Ramirez: Ramirez faces Paul Blackburn tonight in Cleveland. Blackburn has seen an uptick in strikeout percentage this season and also enters the game with a respectable 4.06 xFIP. Ramirez is an elite hitter, however, with a .384 wOBA and .242 ISO against right-handed pitching since the start of last year.
Luis Robert: While the White Sox offense as a whole has been terrible, Robert has been excellent. He enters tonight’s game with a 131 wRC+ and .273 ISO. He will be facing Martin Perez, who has allowed a .173 ISO and .344 wOBA to right-handed hitters in 2023. Guaranteed Rate Field has the fifth-best park factor for right-handed home runs over the last three seasons as well.
Cal Raleigh: Raleigh brings a powerful left-handed bat into Yankee Stadium tonight against Jhony Brito. Brito has allowed a .240 xISO and .383 xwOBA to left-handed hitters this year, and Yankee Stadium has been the third-best park for left-handed home runs over the last three seasons. Raleigh has a .327 wOBA and .261 ISO in 514 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers since the start of 2022.
MLB DFS Advice: Top Pitchers
Luis Castillo (SEA): $10,100 on DraftKings
Shohei Ohtani (LAA): $11,100 on DraftKings
Yu Darvish (SD): $8,700 on DraftKings
For more top pitchers, check out our Top Pitchers Tool!
Luis Castillo: Castillo gets a negative park shift going to Yankee Stadium, but he gets to face a New York lineup that is still without Aaron Judge. The Yankees active roster has only struck out 21.8% of the time against right-handed pitching this season, but it also only has a 90 wRC+. Castillo has the second-highest strikeout percentage on the slate at 29.6%, and he has a slate-leading 3.42 xFIP this year.
Shohei Ohtani: Ohtani will have his work cut out for him tonight against the Dodgers. Los Angeles’ active roster has only struck out 21.6% of the time against right-handed pitching, and it also has a 109 wRC+ and a .182 ISO. Ohtani has the highest strikeout percentage on the slate, however, at 31.7%. His 3.62 xFIP is second best behind Castillo. This is a dangerous matchup, but it is only a six-game slate and Ohtani still offers a massive ceiling.
Yu Darvish: Darvish enters tonight’s game with a 25.9% strikeout percentage and 3.78 xFIP. He has a tough matchup against the Giants, who have a 121 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in 2023. Their 24.1% strikeout percentage against righties is seventh highest in the league, however, so there are strikeouts to be had for Darvish, and he is affordably priced.
