We’re back with a massive 12-game NBA DFS slate on Monday. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks on DraftKings this evening.
NBA DFS Picks – Contrarian Plays For Today: November 6
Contrarian Stud — Anthony Davis: Los Angeles Lakers-Miami Heat
Entering Week 3 of the NBA season, injury reports are starting to pile up around the league. With that in mind, it’s important to note that Stokastic’s NBA DFS projections will consistently be updating as news and information comes in. As of this writing, however, Anthony Davis is the clear top contrarian spend-up option on DraftKings at $9,900. After struggling on opening night against the Nuggets, Davis has been one of the best players in the league, averaging 62.02 DraftKings points in the five games since.
Despite ranking very highly in Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, the field is having a difficult time getting to Davis, with only 4.00% of lineups expected to roster him. He is projected to be optimal 7.60% of the time this slate plays out, so it’s clear why Davis looks like a great differentiator in tournaments. With a bunch of other high-priced studs in play tonight the opportunity cost of rostering Davis is real, but that’s a large part of why he’s projected to be so lowly owned.
Contrarian Mid-Tier — Tyler Herro: Los Angeles Lakers-Miami Heat
Sticking with Lakers-Heat in a game that looks really good from a tournament perspective, Tyler Herro is emerging as one of the best GPP plays on the slate. He is averaging 43.8 DraftKings points per game and seems to be playing with a bit of a chip on his shoulder after being shunned in trade talks all offseason. Whatever the reason may be, Herro is balling and he still isn’t getting love from the masses.
Herro is projected to be optimal 10.80% of the time this slate plays out but is only expected to be in 6.50% of lineups on DraftKings. While this low ownership projection is due in large part to other comparable players in Herro’s price range, he projects for 42.24 DraftKings points at $8,100, making him one of the best value plays at any price range. It’s rare to see one of the top value plays also projecting for big-time leverage, but Herro is looking like an elite contrarian piece in tournaments.
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Contrarian Value — JaVale McGee: Sacramento Kings-Houston Rockets
As DraftKings has done a much better job of consistently pricing up players, there has been a definite lack of viable value pieces priced under $4,000. As such, we’ve had to dumpster dive a bit for contrarian value for DFS legend JaVale McGee. McGee has always been a viable fantasy producer whenever given decent minutes, and despite not getting substantial playing time for the Kings this season, he is averaging just over 13 minutes per game. At $3,200, he’s clearly one of the best spend-down options in tournaments.
Stokastic’s NBA DFS ownership projections have McGee projected to be optimal 11.40% of the time on this slate. Compare that to his ownership projection of 5.50%, and it’s no surprise that he looks so good from a leverage standpoint. There’s certainly inherent risk in rostering McGee at the center position with so many other good big men in play, but Stokastic erases those concerns by showing how valuable he can be tonight at such a cheap price point.
