There are 12 NBA games tonight with several top-end players to choose from. There will probably be plenty of value available by lock since there are so many teams playing, but pricing remains tighter on DraftKings than FanDuel, so it will probably continue to be more difficult to prioritize the studs on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS projections, let’s take a deeper dive into the player pool to discuss the top NBA DFS high-priced studs for today.
Looking for more NBA DFS advice? You’ve come to the right place. Sign up for our NBA DFS Premium Package for access to our scoring projections, ownership projections and our state-of-the-art NBA DFS simulation tools.
High-Priced NBA DFS Plays: Nikola Jokic or Luka DoncicÂ
Stud No. 1 – Luka Doncic: Dallas Mavericks at Orlando Magic
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $12,000/ FanDuel: $12,500
- Stokastic’s Point Projections: DraftKings: 60.58/ FanDuel: 57.14
- Stokastic’s Ownership Projections: DraftKings: 2.5%/ FanDuel: 1.5%
Doncic is questionable for tonight’s game after briefly leaving the floor and going to the locker room in the first half last night. Kyrie Irving is also questionable for the Mavericks, so we are waiting on very important news here.
Assuming Doncic and Irving are both active, Doncic looks like the least appealing of the three most expensive players tonight. He is pricier than Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid, and he projects for fewer points than both of them. That isn’t to say that Doncic isn’t a viable tournament play, as it is never a bad idea to roster one of the best players in the league at virtually no ownership, but it will be difficult to build around him. Doncic has produced 1.57 DraftKings points per minute in 20 games played alongside Irving over the last two seasons, and he has a 35.4% usage rate, 14.1% rebounding rate and 33.7% assist rate.
In 52 games played without Irving over that time, Doncic has produced 1.69 DraftKings points per minute and has a 38.6% usage rate, 14.1% rebounding rate and 45.5% assist rate, so his projection will be closer to, or possibly surpass, Jokic’s and Embiid’s if Irving is ruled out.
While players in Irving’s salary range aren’t exactly the subject of this article, it is worth noting here that Irving has produced 1.51 DraftKings points per minute and has a 32.3% usage rate and 38.5% assist rate in 161 minutes without either of Doncic or Christian Wood on the floor since he joined the Mavericks.
Stud No. 2 – Nikola Jokic: Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $11,600/ FanDuel: $11,800
- Stokastic’s Point Projections: DraftKings: 64.27/ FanDuel: 61.61
- Stokastic’s Ownership Projections: DraftKings: 12.1%/ FanDuel: 10.7%
Jokic is always one of the top options on a slate, and tonight he will face the Pelicans without Jamal Murray at his side. Murray is the clear No. 2 scoring option and playmaker for the Nuggets, so there will be even more opportunities than usual available for Jokic.
Since the start of last season, Jokic has produced 1.64 DraftKings points per minute with Murray on the floor. Over that span, he has a 28.3% usage rate and 39.6% assist rate. Without Murray on the floor over that time, Jokic has produced 1.71 DraftKings points per minute and has a 29.4% usage rate and 42.2% assist rate.
He is the highest-projected player on the slate at this time and looks like the best pay-up option on the slate.
Stud No. 3 – Joel Embiid: Philadelphia 76ers vs Washington Wizards
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $11,200/ FanDuel: $12,000
- Stokastic’s Point Projections: DraftKings: 61.32/ FanDuel: 60.33
- Stokastic’s Ownership Projections: DraftKings: 9.6%/ FanDuel: 4.7%
Embiid has been even more productive this year than he was last season, and it is likely that will continue with James Harden no longer on the team and a seemingly increased emphasis on passing. Embiid has averaged 9.3 potential assists per 36 minutes this year, compared to 6.6 potential assists per 36 minutes last season. As a result, he has a 31.2% assist rate this year. We often see an increase in assist rate coincide with a decrease in usage, but that hasn’t been the case, as Embiid has maintained a 36.4% usage rate. Overall, he has produced 1.74 DraftKings points per minute this season, which is in line with Jokic’s numbers without Murray on the floor.
Jokic projects slightly better than Embiid, but Embiid is a strong consolation prize if you can’t quite afford Jokic. Also, be sure to keep an eye on the ownership gap between the two because Embiid becomes extremely appealing in tournaments if his projected ownership comes in significantly lower than Jokic’s.
There are 12 games tonight, so we have a lot of pending injury news that will change the outlook of the slate. Be sure to check out Stokastic Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock shows.
