NBA DFS Contrarian Picks: Go Right Back to Anthony Davis (November 30)

The NBA is back with a nine-game slate on Thursday. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks on DraftKings this evening, which include Anthony Davis and Klay Thompson.

NBA DFS Contrarian Picks — Plays For Today

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Contrarian Stud — Anthony Davis: Los Angeles Lakers-Oklahoma City Thunder

Fresh off a dominant performance against the Pistons, Anthony Davis is the top contrarian stud on DraftKings at $10,200. He is coming into tonight’s action averaging a respectable 50.5 DraftKings points per game, and last night he put up 28 points, 16 rebounds, four assists, three blocks and one steal in only 29 minutes of action. Despite his dominant performance, Davis isn’t getting a lot of love tonight, as the field is hesitant to spend $10,200 on him on the second half of a back-to-back.

As of this writing, only 3.70% of the field is expected to roster Davis on DraftKings, compared to a 7.00% optimal percentage. He has massive upside every time he steps on the floor, and don’t be surprised if Davis has a little extra pep in his step going up against a rookie in Chet Holmgren. Despite his relatively low optimal percentage, Davis is atop Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, and he’s an elite GPP option with the field backing away.

Contrarian Mid-Tier — Klay Thompson: Los Angeles Clippers-Golden State Warriors

Klay Thompson is coming off arguably his best game of the year, and he’s the top contrarian mid-tier play on DraftKings at $6,400. He has been having his worst season as a pro, but Thompson has slowly turned things around lately, with at least 30 DraftKings points in four straight games, capped off by 40.3 DraftKings points on Tuesday against the Kings. Thompson is starting to look more and more like the vintage Splash Brother he has been for so many years.

Despite his production trending up, the field still isn’t buying what Thompson is selling, as only 4.60% of lineups are expected to roster him on DraftKings. With an optimal percentage of 9.90%, Thompson stands out as one of the highest-graded leverage plays on the slate. From a median outcome perspective, Thompson is probably a bit overpriced at $6,400. Upside is the goal in tournaments, however, and there’s still plenty of meat on the bone at this price for him to put up a score to win GPPs.

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Contrarian Value — Andre Drummond: Milwaukee Bucks-Chicago Bulls

As DraftKings continues to do a better job of consistently pricing up players, value plays can be tough to find. That said, at only $3,400, Andre Drummond is the top value differentiator on the board.

Despite a projection of only 17.95 DraftKings points, Drummond is expected to be optimal a whopping 19.30% of the time this slate plays out. While that speaks to Drummond’s value at $3,400, it also sheds light on how the rest of the slate is priced. Even with a near 20% optimal percentage, Drummond is only projected to be 14.60% owned on DraftKings, and he stands out as an easy way to get away from the field in tournaments without sacrificing any upside.

Looking for more NBA DFS advice? You’ve come to the right place. Sign up for Stokastic’s NBA DFS Premium Package for access to player projections, ownership projections and Stokastic’s state-of-the-art NBA DFS simulation tools.

Matthew Belman
Matt Belman graduated from Tulane University with a degree in Consumer Behavior. He has been playing and analyzing DFS full time since 2018. He has qualified for the 2023 DraftKings NBA World Championship (5x), the 2023 DraftKings MLB World Championship (2x), the 2023 FanDuel MLB World Championship (2x) and the 2023 DraftKings NFL World Championship. You can find him on X at @fantasytipsmatt.

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