NBA DFS Contrarian Picks: Right Back to Scottie Barnes (November 24)

The NBA is back with an eight-game slate on Friday. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks on DraftKings this evening.

NBA DFS Contrarian Picks — Plays For Today

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Contrarian Stud — Scottie Barnes: Chicago Bulls-Toronto Raptors

A regular in this article recently, Scottie Barnes is again the top contrarian stud on DraftKings. One of the breakout starts of the young season, Barnes has been fantastic for the Raptors putting up 19.7 points, 9.1 rebounds, 5.7 assists, 1.7 steals and 1.3 blocks per game. Coming into tonight averaging 46.0 DraftKings points, Barnes is getting forgotten about by the masses tonight and he’s the top spend up to be contrarian play on the board.

While his $8,700 price tag might be expensive for his median outcome, his upside is still massive and that’s evidenced by his 9.90% optimal percentage on DraftKings. In a decent spot against the struggling Bulls, Barnes is only projected to be 5.60% owned as he doesn’t project as a great points-per-dollar play relative to other players priced around him. As projections have yet to catch up to Barnes’ level of play this year, he will consistently remain one of the best tournament plays on the board given his upside relative to his ownership.

Contrarian Mid-Tier — Alex Caruso: Chicago Bulls-Toronto

Sticking with the Bulls-Raptors in what looks like the game of the night from a contrarian perspective, Alex Caruso stands out in the mid-tier at $4,800 on DraftKings. While Caruso is usually much more of a defensive stalwart, he’s been filling up box scores recently and the field is still hesitant to buy in.

As of this writing Stokastic’s tools have Caruso being optimal 15.60% of the time this plays out on DraftKings. Compare that to his 9.50% ownership projection and it makes sense why he looks so good as a differentiator in tournaments. With both Zach LaVine and Coby White questionable for Chicago, these numbers are sure to change as we get closer to lock. Make sure to watch the Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock to get all of the latest news.

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Contrarian Value — Moses Moody: San Antonio Spurs-Golden State Warriors

Pivoting off of the Bulls-Raptors game, Moses Moody is the top contrarian value play on DraftKings at $3,900. Coming into tonight’s action only averaging 16.0 DraftKings points per game, Moody has seen his numbers and minutes increase substantially lately as the Warriors continue to look for production from anyone other than Steph Curry.

Currently the highest graded leverage play on the board, Moody is only projected to be in 3.30% of lineups on DraftKings. With an optimal percentage of 13.00%, however, he’s definitely worth getting over the field on in tournaments. While it’s still unlikely Moody puts up a score thats needed to win GPP’s, his $3,900 price tag opens doors to roster construction that otherwise would be shut.

Looking for more NBA DFS advice? You’ve come to the right place. Sign up for Stokastic’s NBA DFS Premium Package for access to player projections, ownership projections and Stokastic’s state-of-the-art NBA DFS simulation tools.

Matthew Belman
Matt Belman graduated from Tulane University with a degree in Consumer Behavior. He has been playing and analyzing DFS full time since 2018. He has qualified for the 2023 DraftKings NBA World Championship (5x), the 2023 DraftKings MLB World Championship (2x), the 2023 FanDuel MLB World Championship (2x) and the 2023 DraftKings NFL World Championship. You can find him on X at @fantasytipsmatt.

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