NBA DFS Contrarian Picks: Scary Terry Rozier in Chicago (December 6)

After two days of In-Season Tournament games, the NBA is back with a monster 11-game slate on Wednesday. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks on DraftKings this evening, which include Terry Rozier and Moses Brown.

NBA DFS Contrarian Picks — Plays For Today

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Contrarian Stud — Terry Rozier: Charlotte Hornets-Chicago Bulls

Terry Rozier is the top contrarian spend-up option on DraftKings at $8,100. He is coming into tonight’s action averaging 39.6 DraftKings points per game, and he put up a combined 115 fantasy points over the past two contests. With franchise point guard LaMelo Ball out with a right ankle sprain, Rozier is the guy in the Hornets backcourt, and his $8,100 price tag is too cheap for a great spot against the Bulls in Chicago.

As of this writing, Stokastic’s tools have Rozier optimal 11.70% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings against a 7.20% ownership projection. With so many good plays on such a massive slate, it’s no surprise that Rozier is falling through the cracks a bit. His upside is undeniable, however, and he’s definitely worth getting over the field on in GPPs.

Contrarian Mid-Tier — Cam Thomas: Brooklyn Nets-Atlanta Hawks

Cam Thomas is $1,000 less than Rozier, making him the top contrarian mid-tier play on DraftKings. After breaking out in a big way earlier in the season, Thomas saw his production come to a halt in November, as he was forced to miss nine games with a left ankle sprain. Since returning on Nov. 30, Thomas has continued his productive ways, putting up a combined 69.8 DraftKings points over this current two-game stretch.

Despite Thomas’ clear nightly production, the field is uninterested in spending $7,100 on Thomas, as only 4.10% of lineups are projected to roster him on DraftKings. With an optimal percentage of 12.50%, Thomas grades out as the second-highest-rated leverage play on the slate, behind only Moses Brown. With offensive spark plug Lonnie Walker IV out with a left hamstring strain, the Nets need Thomas’ shot making right now, and he should continue to play massive minutes as Brooklyn’s top scoring option. He has massive upside matched up with the Hawks in Atlanta and is arguably the top tournament play on the entire slate.

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Contrarian Value — Moses Brown: Portland Trail Blazers-Golden State Warriors

With Jerami Grant out and Deandre Ayton unlikely to play, Portland has emerged as the clear top spot for value on a slate without a ton of it elsewhere. While Duop Reath and Jabari Parker are projected to be the two highest-owned players on the slate, backup center Moses Brown is the highest-graded leverage play in Stokastic’s tools by a pretty good margin.

Brown is projected for 16.16 fantasy points at the flat $3,000 price tag, but he is only expected to be 4.40% owned on DraftKings. With an optimal percentage of 17.80%, however, he stands out as one of the best leverage plays all year. Although these numbers can certainly change as more news comes out leading up to lock, it’s unlikely Brown will gain  a ton of steam unless he’s announced as the starter. Plus, Brown’s $3,000 price tag opens up doors to roster construction that otherwise would be closed.

Looking for more NBA DFS advice? You’ve come to the right place. Sign up for Stokastic’s NBA DFS Premium Package for access to player projections, ownership projections and Stokastic’s state-of-the-art NBA DFS simulation tools.

Matthew Belman
Matt Belman graduated from Tulane University with a degree in Consumer Behavior. He has been playing and analyzing DFS full time since 2018. He has qualified for the 2023 DraftKings NBA World Championship (5x), the 2023 DraftKings MLB World Championship (2x), the 2023 FanDuel MLB World Championship (2x) and the 2023 DraftKings NFL World Championship. You can find him on X at @fantasytipsmatt.

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