The NBA is back with a massive 13-game slate on Friday. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks on DraftKings this evening, which include Luka Doncic and Day’Ron Sharpe.
NBA DFS Contrarian Picks — Plays For Today
Contrarian Stud — Luka Doncic: Dallas Mavericks-Portland Trail Blazers
It’s always nice to be able to roster Luka Doncic at low ownership, and he’s the top contrarian stud on DraftKings at $11,800. Despite projecting to be the third-highest scoring player on the slate (within a point of both Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid), the field is leaving Doncic behind tonight, as DraftKings has risen prices across the board. Although it’s not easy to fit any of the top studs on this slate, none of them are getting ownership, which makes all of them appealing in tournaments.
While cases can definitely be made for Jokic or Embiid as the top overall stud tonight, Doncic is clearly the best from a leverage standpoint. Despite his healthy 62.78 DraftKings points projection, only 4.70% of the field is expected to roster Doncic on this slate. With a 6.70% optimal percentage, it makes sense why Doncic stands as a differentiator in tournaments. He’s clearly expensive for his median outcome, but Doncic has upside that is unmatched by pretty much every other player on the slate, and it is definitely worth getting over the field on him in GPPs.
Contrarian Mid-Tier — Day’Ron Sharpe: Washington Wizards-Brooklyn Nets
As DraftKings continues to progressively price up players in every salary range, the mid-tier becomes less and less appealing. That said, there are still some diamonds in the rough, and Day’Ron Sharpe has emerged as the top contrarian play at $4,600. Sharpe is very productive on a per-minute basis but will rarely play enough minutes to be a necessity in tournaments. He is coming into tonight’s action averaging 17.8 DraftKings points per game, and at $4,600, he’s an elite way to get different in GPPs without sacrificing any upside.
As of this writing, Stokastic’s tools have Sharpe optimal 6.00% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. Compare that to his minuscule 1.10% ownership projection, and Sharpe stands out as one of the highest-graded leverage plays on the slate. While there is definitely some opportunity cost in using a center spot on Sharpe, he’s in a dream spot against the Wizards, and there is a world where he plays 25 minutes and becomes the best dollar-per-dollar play on the board.
Contrarian Value — Jared Butler: Washington Wizards-Brooklyn Nets
Back to dumpster diving for contrarian value, Jared Butler stands out at only $3,200 on DraftKings. With Washington dealing with some injuries on its bench, Butler played 14 minutes against Philadelphia on Wednesday. Although he wasn’t super productive in his time on the court, he’s one of the few players priced around $3,000 who’s actually going to be on the floor. Despite his minimal production this season, Butler is actually the highest-graded leverage play on the entire slate.
These numbers are certain to change as more news comes out before lock, but Butler is currently projected to be optimal 10.20% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. The field is disinterested in getting to him, however, as he’s only expected to be 1.50% owned at just $3,200.
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